Keeper advice

[Stackahundoz]

I'm in a 12 team .5 PPR league.  I'm allowed two keepers at a two round penalty from the round in which the kept player was drafted last season.  I elected to keep Michael Crabtree in the 6th round. I feel thats a good value against his ADP.  I'm slightly torn between keeping Allen Robinson in the 4th round, or maybe keeping Jameis Winston in round 10.  Can anybody here help me make up my mind? 

[mkecrew]

Robinson ended the season in PPR yahoo format as the 28th best WR where as Winston ranked 11th overall at QB. I think the better option would be Winston because Robinson may still be there in the 4th but I feel people are going to be reaching for him earlier, allowing you to get a statistically better receiver/player at the 4th. Also, with Tampa adding D. Jackson should allow Mike Evans to take advantage of 1 on  1 coverage giving Winston plenty of opportunities. 

[Stackahundoz]

i probly should have mentioned melvin gordon, isaiah crowell, jay ajayi, michael thomas, david johnson, jordy nelson, and devonta freeman are among the other keepers that will not be available in the draft which might increase Allen Robinson's ADP in this particular league..

[robotpimp]

the difference from the 5th and 11th QB or 15th is marginal, it's pretty much Brees, Rodgers then a small tier two, larger tier 3 for QB's. 

A.Rob probably isn't the best value compared to Winston but with that said A.rob is still projected to bounce, contract year for him, softer schedule (weaker CB's).. You know his ceiling is higher than what happened last year, it's a risk but either way he get insane volume.  He will still live and die on the poor QB'ing in JAX. 

Winston = safer, value pick

A.Rob = risk/high upside/contract year/3rd exp.