huddle cheat sheets

[Scooby's Hubby]

example: miles austin... what is with the risk? why not just rank him where you think he is not risky and just put an upside? i do not understand the difference. another is cutler with both upside and risk. can't you just rank them where there is no risk and just put upside? where is austin ranked where he is not risky? I apologize in advance if i put this in the wrong forumn.

[delusions of grandeur]

I think it's the difference between a quantitative and qualitative analysis... Yes, you could try to put a quantity on upside or risk, but I think this is their way of saying, okay, this is where the guy sits right now on our board, but if X changes, then B could happen... Cutler seems the perfect example of both upside and risk, since we all know he has all the talent to be great in Martz's system, but there is an equal amount of risk that he might continue to digress, kill drives with INTs, and/or struggle in this new fast-moving offense....

 

I don't know that I completely agree with the risk tag for Austin, but considering how high he is likely to be drafted, it might be appropriate...You'd like to think that that offense should sustain enough drives for Austin to get plenty of targets, but if you draft him as a top-tier WR (where he almost surely will be drafted), then he does come with a little bit of risk, particularly if they start to spread the ball around alot... However, the fact that they have him ranked #4 should tell you they have alot confidence in him (just not quite enough to stake their reputation on it without a small disclaimer about potential baggage).

 

But in both player's cases, I'd just take it as a reminder that it wouldn't hurt to have a backup plan if you choose a guy with a "risk" tag, and that you probably shouldn't reach too early on a guy with an upside tag, because it's still just that; potential.

[Scooby's Hubby]

I think there is risk in ranking Miles Austin that high, so my question is why not rank him lower and lose the risk tag? or rank him lower and put an upside tag? maybe it is the Dez Bryant unknown factor or the crowded offense theory (kinda like the Saints where you know there will be yardage but as to who could be a weekly gamble) , and I do understand that the rankings within the cheat sheets will change throughout training camp and pre-season so it is possible to see Miles ranked lower and/or the risk dropped.

[Company of Heroes]

Every player has a range where their actual production will fall within. There is uncertainty in a player's situation that can be based on many different things: injury, small body of work, new offense, new teammates. Upside and risk are attempts to grade the uncertainty.

 

Rank: Where the Huddle staff thinks they will most likely rank, all factors considered.

Upside: Potential for being better than rank.

Risk: Potential for being worse than rank.

[delusions of grandeur]

I think there is risk in ranking Miles Austin that high, so my question is why not rank him lower and lose the risk tag? or rank him lower and put an upside tag? maybe it is the Dez Bryant unknown factor or the crowded offense theory (kinda like the Saints where you know there will be yardage but as to who could be a weekly gamble) , and I do understand that the rankings within the cheat sheets will change throughout training camp and pre-season so it is possible to see Miles ranked lower and/or the risk dropped.

 

Completely agree with you there that if I was drafting right now, I’d have Austin lower on my list (and probably still will when the season starts). Similarly, I have to wonder why even bother putting “upside” on a player like Gore, since as a top 5 pick, you’d think that you’re buying into a lot of production already... How does he have any more upside than any of the top 4 backs (aside from maybe Rice in non-PPR, as the only one who doesn’t get all the carries and TDs).

 

 

But I think we might both be overcomplicating things… Risk here tends to be attached to: proven production/talent at this level – but it remains to be seen if they can repeat/grow (due to situation, injuries, etc.), whereas upside signifies guys who have all of the talent or situation to climb the ADP rankings (and could end up being break-out candidate steals), but haven’t quite yet…. Of course players like Cutler and SJax don’t fit neatly into either of those definitions, but it’s a bit more obvious what the upside and risks are for them.

 

Also, I've noticed that the Huddle tends to rank proven producers more highly over potential, so Austin may be ranked so highly because he has proven that he can put up a 1300 yard season, (and of course you and I have both highlighted where the risk tag comes from).

 

Outside of that, it’s really up to the reader to interpret the data for themselves. Some may place value on proven production over risk or upside, whereas the latter two factors might be more significant to another person or draft-pick… This is where self-interpretation of the data comes in, but I do like that the Huddle gives you those extra tags and explanations to give you better indication of what you're buying into...

Edited June 9, 2010 by delusions of granduer

[Scooby's Hubby]

there are a few wake up calls in the first edition of the cheat sheets, like Vernon Davis over Dallas Clark for one....

[mrip]

Well he was hot for part of one year and that's it. There's your risk right there.