Preseason Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Well, it's that time of year again and I might as well begin this year with a welcome to all of gamblers who participated in this thread last year. I think we helped each other out w/ advice and picks and made some money. To those who are new, this is a weekly thread, but I'll just do one for the preseason, considering that not as many people gamble on the preseason.

 

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

I'll start out w/ an analysis of the over/under the past 2 preseasons.

 

Note: When I did this analysis, I used the opening numbers from the past 2 years...not the closing line. Typically if you want to take an under, you'd wait until as close to the game as possible, as the O/U typically gets bet up (unless weather or injury play a factor). So I don't know how much of an improvement we'd see using the closing line, if any, but something I thought I'd mention.

 

Here is how the UNDER did:

 

2005:

 

Week 1: 10-4-2

Week 2: 6-8-2

Week 3: 13-3

Week 4: 6-10

 

2006:

 

Week 1: 13-3

Week 2: 8-8

Week 3: 8-8

Week 4: 8-8

 

OVERALL:

 

Week 1: 23-7-2

Week 2: 14-16-2

Week 3: 21-11-0

Week 4: 14-18

 

Sum: 72-52-4

 

2005 the Under went 35-25-4

2006 the Under went 37-27

 

A few comments:

 

I don't think I have to tell you the public prefers to bet overs. It's the optimist in them, seeing the favorite covering and the over hitting.

 

The last thing the public remembers is totals from last season's playoffs. The average O/U for the playoffs was 45. The average for the entire season was 41.

 

The average preseason O/U for Week 1 for the last 2 years has been 36.6. The public knows it's preseason, knows the offenses are still working on things, knows that first string guys won't get a whole lot of PT, yet they take the over after seeing such a low line.

 

The average O/U stays right around 37 for the preseason. At least the last 2 years it has. And while 2005 showed some volatility between weeks, the fact is that Week 1 was big on the under, and 2006 was even moreso.

 

So, take from this what you wish. The first game of the year went under and I was surely not the only one who took the under in that game. I'm not suggesting to blindly take unders in week 1, although you could have done very well the past 2 years. But it's worth a hard look at situationally playing the under the rest of this week...

 

I'll be back in a minute w/ a paste of a pretty good writeup on coaching trends in the preseason.

[Steeltown Dre]

The following is written by Tony Stoffo. I don't necessairly agree with each and every statement he has made, but the article does provide some very good information regarding preseason betting and trends.

 

NFL Betting News:

By Tony Stoffo

 

Tony Stoffo is the author of the famous gambling book, Money Management for the Year Round Professional.

 

Let me start off by saying that I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework the preseason games offer the betting public a tremendous chance to make a ton of money.

 

In the preseason, many head coaches have a track record of wanting to win and some just don’t care and are just preparing for the regular season. You can find many games this preseason where you can get a definite edge. Below I have put together a list of all 32 teams with a breakdown of things to look for this preseason that will give you that winning advantage.

 

A very important thing to remember for this upcoming preseason is that there will be 7 new head coaches this season, so previous preseason trends for these teams are no longer valid. However I have found some nice hidden trends that can still show us a profit with these teams.

 

Here are the 7 teams with new head coaches for the upcoming season:

 

Arizona - Ken Whisenhunt

 

Atlanta - Bobby Petrino

 

Dallas - Wade Phillips

 

Miami - Cam Cameron

 

Oakland - Lane Kiffin

 

Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin

 

San Diego - Norv Turner

 

AFC East

 

Buffalo – The Bills lost 3 of their 4 preseson games last year under new head coach Dick Jauron. This follows a trend that in Jauron’s last two preseasons when he was head coach of the Chicago Bears back in 2002 and 2003, he went 2-6 ATS. Buffalo also hired Marv Levy last year as its vice president of football operations. Remember Levy coached all those great Buffalo teams that went to the Super Bowl. But Levy never cared about winning in the preseason. Under this new leadership will have to make the Bills a definite fade again this preseason.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: J.P. Losman, Craig Nall, Trent Edwards.

 

Miami – Cam Cameron takes over as the Dolphins new head coach. Over the last 5 years Cameron has been the offensive coordinator of the potent Chargers offense. However with all the uncertainties the Dolphins have on both sides of the ball coming into this year their definitely a team to stay away from this preseason. The one thing I did find that sticks out is that Miami is a perfect 0-6 against the spread in the first preseason game the last 6 years.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Trent Green, Cleo Lemon, John Beck

 

New England – Coming into last years preseason the 'under' was an impressive 13-3 in the Patriots last 16 preseason games spanning the previous four years. However last year Bill Belichick opened things up offensively with the Patriots scoring 23, 30, 41, and 23 points in their 4 preseason games. Knowing that the odds makers will continue to post low totals on all of New England’s preseason games, I would look to take advantage of this and play the over off of last years results.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tom Brady, Matt Cassel, Matt Gutierrez

 

New York Jets – In his first year as head coach of the Jets Eric Mangini showed no willingness to win preseason games as the Jets lost 3 of their 4 games. Their only win came against a Joe Gibbs Washington team that has lost 7 of their last 8 preseason games. Even though we have only one year to look at, I would say this short term trend will continue this preseason.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Chad Pennington, Kellen Clemens, Marques Tuiasosopo

 

AFC North

 

Baltimore – The Ravens under head coach Brian Billick are just a .500 team ATS over the past four preseasons (10-10). However, there is a very strong trend that can make you some money on the Ravens this preseason. Baltimore in the past two preseasons has seen the under go 6-2. Plus in week # 3 when the regulars play the under has gone 3-1 the past 4 years.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Steve McNair, Kyle Boller, Drew Olsen, Troy Smith

 

Cincinnati – Some early preseason trends to follow for the Bengals this year. Cincinnati really doesn’t care about their opening preseason game going 1-3 the last 4 years. However the Bengals are a perfect 4-0 against the spread the last 4 years in game 2 of the preseason. This year’s game #2 opponent is a Saints team coached by Sean Payton who has shown that winning preseason games is not one of his top priorities.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Carson Palmer, Doug Johnson, Jeff Smith, Jeff Rowe.

 

Cleveland – It should be noted that Romeo Crennel brought over New England’s winning ways with the Browns, going 6-2 against the spread in his first two preseasons with the Browns. With a nice 07 draft look for these winning ways to continue for the Browns this preseason with a coach that’s under a lot of pressure to win this year.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Charlie Frye, Ken Dorsey, Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn

 

Pittsburgh – Mike Tomlin takes over as the new head coach of the Steelers. Tomlin was the Minnesota Vikings' defensive coordinator in 2006 after spending the previous five seasons as defensive backs coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In his first preseason as defensive coordinator last year with the Vikings defense ruled in the preseason with Minnesota giving up only 16, 10, 7, and 10 points. May be something we can take advantage of in his first preseason as head coach of the Steelers.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Ben Roethlisberger, Charlie Batch, Brian St. Pierre, Bryan Randall

 

AFC South

 

Houston – Gary Kubiak brought the Denver preseason winning ways to Houston last year as the Texans went 3-0-1 against the spread last year in his first year as head coach. With a very solid quarterback rotation in place I look for the Texans to again be a winning proposition this preseason.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Schaub, Sage Rosenfels, Bradlee Van Pelt, Jared Zabransky

 

Indianapolis – Two late preseason trends to watch this year for the Colts. Over the past 5 years Indianapolis has been a money maker in their dress rehearsal game going 4-1 against the spread (this year’s dress rehearsal game is on August 25th against Detroit). While just as impressive is how poorly they play in their last preseason game of the year going 1-4 against the spread. Look for both of these solid trends to continue this year.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Peyton Manning, Jim Sorgi, Josh Betts, and John Navarre.

 

Jacksonville – The Jaguars are sure known for their defense in the regular season. However head coach Jack Del Rio has pulled in the reigns during the last 2 preseasons allowing the Jaguars to open things up offensively as the over has gone 6-2. Look for this trend to again be a money maker this year as the odds makers continue to post low totals on all of the Jacksonville preseason games.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Byron Leftwich, David Garrard, Quinn Gray.

 

Tennessee – Two years ago, Titans head coach Steve Fisher had won 75 percent of his preseason games in the previous five years. However, things started to turn around in 05 with the Titans going 1-3 ATS. Then last year the Titans came with another 1-3 ATS record for a combined 2-6 record against the spread over the past two years. With Vince Young seeing limited action this preseason, and the rest of the Tennessee quarterback rotation unsettled. I look for the Titans to again be a play against team this preseason.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Vince Young, Kerry Collins, Kent Smith

 

AFC West

 

Denver – Head coach Mike Shanahan loves to win preseason games. In the last five years, the Broncos have gone 13-8 against the spread. Shanahan also puts a great emphasize on the Broncos final preseason game, going 6-1 against the spread the last seven years making this one of the Best preseason plays that you will find.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jay Cutler, Patrick Ramsey, Preston Parsons, Darrell Hackney

 

Kansas City – One strong early trend to watch this preseason for Kansas City. The Chiefs definitely don’t look forward to playing their first preseason game of the year going 0-4 against the spread the last 4 years. Look for this trend to continue this year as the Chiefs open up on the road against a Browns team that has excelled against the spread since Romeo Crennel has taken over as head coach.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Damon Huard, Brodie Croyle, Casey Printers, Jeff Terrell

 

Oakland – Lane Kiffin takes over as the new Oakland head coach. Kiffin has run the USC Trojans offense over the last 4 years. Well it doesn’t matter who has been the Raiders head coach over the past two years as a very strong trend has developed. The Under has been a big money maker going 8-1. With Kiffin’s inexperience as a head coach will only add to this trend as he will be taking things easy this preseason, and remember they will also be simplifying things offensively for JaMarcus Russell.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Josh McCown, Andrew Walter, JaMarcus Russell, Josh Booty

 

San Diego – Norv Turner takes over the reigns of the Chargers for this season. In Turner’s last head coaching job with the Raiders in 04 and 05 some trends can be taken away from it that can give us an edge for the Chargers preseson games this year. First of all in both of his dress rehearsal games the Raiders went 0-2 against the spread. However Turner put a little more empathic in the last preseason game of the year going 2-0 against the spread.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Phillip Rivers, Billy Volek, Charlie Whitehurst.

 

NFC East

 

Dallas – Wade Phillips takes over as the Cowboys new head coach. Phillips is the perfect fit to take over Bill Parcells 3-4 defense as he has been the Chargers defensive coordinator the past 3 seasons. So I look for the Cowboys to be concentrating on defense this preseason which will lead to a bunch of low scoring games this year.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tony Romo, Brad Johnson, Matt Baker, Richard Bartel

 

New York Giants – Under head coach Tom Coughlin the Giants have shown some strong trends over the past 2 years. First the Giants have won and covered 7 straight preseason games which includes 4 outright wins as a dog. Plus the under has been the right side in 6 of the Giants last 8 preseason games. With Coughlin’s job in jeopardy as this season begins I would look for another big preseason from the Giant’s this year.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Eli Manning, Jared Lorenzen. Tim Hasselbeck, Anthony Wright

 

Philadelphia – Andy Reid and the Eagles show no trends that we can take advantage of going 11-10 in the preseason over the last five years. However Reid doesn’t care about playing defense in the Eagles last preseason game of the year as the over has been the right side in 4 of the last 5 years.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Donovan McNabb ???, AJ Feeley, Kelly Holcomb, Kelvin Kolb

 

Washington – In Joe Gibbs' last two years as head coach of the Redskins it is become apparent that the Redskins preseason games don’t mean anything to Gibb’s as Washington has gone 1-7 both straight up and against the spread. Can’t see anything changing this strong trend coming into this year.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Mark Brunell, Jason Campbell, Todd Collins, Jordan Palmer

 

NFC North

 

Chicago – In Lovie Smith’s three seasons as Chicago head coach the Bears are just a .500 team against the spread. However a trend has definitely developed in the preseason in the 13 games the Bears have played, nine of them have stayed 'under' the total. A possible 'under' play this preseason is on August 30th when the Bears play Cleveland on the road. The Browns have seen the 'under' go 4-0 in their last preseason game of the year the past 4 years which 3 of these were against the Bears.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Rex Grossman, Brian Griese, Kyle Orton, Chris Leak.

 

Detroit – Last year I told you that that the Lions head coach Marinelli has been the defensive line and assistant head coach for Tampa Bay the past 10 years. He helped put together the awesome Buccaneers defensive units of the past. With him emphasizing defense and toughness, playing Detroit 'under' this preseason might be the way to go. Well the Lions saw the under go 3-1 in their preseason games last year. I see no reason why this trend won’t continue this preseason making the under a strong play for this year.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky, and Drew Stanton

 

Green Bay – In his first year as head coach of the Packers Mike McCarthy showed no signs of being interested in winning preseason games as Green Bay went 1-3 against the spread last year. The Packers have also been blown out in their last 2 dress rehearsal game being outscored 75-20. With a very poor quarterback rotation in place for this year look for the Green Bay preseason woes to continue this year.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Brett Favre, Aaron Rogers, Ingle Martin, Paul Thompson

 

Minnesota – Brad Childress in his first year as the Vikings head coach played it very conservative in the preseason as Minnesota saw 3 of their 4 games go under the total. With a very poor quarterback rotation in place for this year look for this trend of low scoring preseason games to continue again this year.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tarvaris Jackson, Brooks Bollinger, Drew Henson, Tyler Thigpen

 

NFC South

 

Atlanta – The offensive minded Bobby Petrino of Louisville has been named the new head coach of the Falcons. However Atlanta has retained both their offensive and defensive coordinators from a year ago. So a very strong preseason trend should continue to show a profit for this year. In their 'dress rehearsal' game the last three years the Falcons have gone 3-0 outscoring their opposition 80-23 This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on August 27th when they play Cincinnati at home,

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Joey Harrington, D.J. Shockley, Chris Redman

 

Carolina – The Panthers played it close to the vest last year with all 4 of their preseason games going under the total. With Carolina having to play the Giants, Eagles, Patriots, and Steelers this year look for this trend of low scoring games to continue this preseason.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jake Delhomme, David Carr, Brett Basanez.

 

New Orleans –Off of last years preseason results it is obvious that Sean Payton does not really care about winning preseason games as the Saints lost 3 of their 4 games. What really verifies this is the game the Saints played against the Cowboys in week # 2 of the preseason where they lost 30-7, and remember the Saints came back in the regular season and blew away the Cowboys in Dallas. With the Saints playing the extra game this preseason I would make a strong play against them in their first preseason game against the Steelers.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Drew Bees, Jamie Martin, Jason Fife, Tyler Palko

 

Tampa Bay – The Buccaneers have one of the top preseason trends that we look forward to every year. Tampa Bay has been a perfect 5-0 in their opening preseason game the last five years. I look for this trend to easily continue this year with the great quarterback rotation that the Buccaneers have this preseason.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Chris Simms, Jeff Garcia, Bruce Gradkowski, Luke McCown

 

NFC West

 

Arizona – With Dennis Green now gone Ken Whisenhunt takes over as the new head coach of the Cardinals. For the past 3 seasons Whisenhunt has been the offensive coordinator of the Steelers. For this upcoming preseason I would definitely make the Cardinals a team to play on as they have gone 11-5 against the spread the last 4 years, and have a new coach that wants to impress immediately.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Leinatt, Kurt Warner, Shane Boyd

 

St Louis – Scott Lineham will be in his second year as head coach of the Rams, and a strong trend easily sticks out that we can make some money with this preseason. Two years ago as offensive coordinator with the Dolphins Lineham saw Miami go 0-3-2 against the spread, and last year in his first year as a head coach Lineham led the Rams to a 0-4 mark against the spread. So in the last two preseasons Lineham’s teams have gone 0-7-2 against the spread making this one of the top trends to watch for this year.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Marc Bulger, Gus Frerotte, Ryan Fitzpatrick

 

San Francisco – In Mike Nolan’s first two year’s as head coach, the 49ers have gone 6-2 against the spread in the preseason. Here is another team that has a strong quarterback rotation setup for this preseason. So I look for the 49ers to once again have another winning preseason.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Alex Smith, Trent Dilfer, Shaun Hill,

 

Seattle – The Seahawks' head coach Mike Holmgren doesn’t put much emphasize in preseason games, going 8-12 ATS the last five years. However a strong trend has developed that has seen 7 of the last 10 Seattle games go over the total. Something to definitely keep your eye on for this year.

 

Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Hasselbeck, David Greene, Seneca Wallace.

[Steeltown Dre]

Adjustments to account for Unders in Week 1

 

This season it appears the bookies have learned from the past 2 seasons, and bettors have been quick and smart to take advantage of lines.

 

The current O/U lines for Week 1 games:

 

Cincinnati at Detroit O/U 34.5

Indianapolis at Dallas O/U 34.5

Atlanta at Ny Jets O/U 31.5

New England at Tampa Bay O/U 32.5

Buffalo at New Orleans O/U 36

St. Louis at Minnesota O/U 34.5

Green Bay at Pittsburgh O/U 35.5

Jacksonville at Miami O/U 34

Kansas City at Cleveland O/U 34.5

Washington at Tennessee O/U 35.5

Carolina at Ny Giants O/U 35

Chicago at Houston O/U 32.5

Arizona at Oakland O/U 35

Seattle at San Diego O/U 36.5

Philadelphia at Baltimore O/U 31

Denver at San Francisco O/U 35.5

 

These totals are very sharp, however they were not always that way:

 

Cincy at Detroit opened at 37 and is now 34.5

Indy at Dallas opened at 37.5 and is now 34.5

Atlanta at NYJ was bet down by 2 points, as was NE at TB.

StL at Minn was bet down by 1.5 points and Buf at NO was bet down 1 point

KC at Cle was bet down 1.5 points and Sea at SD was bet down 1 point

 

So there is the sharps taking value out of the totals early in the week.

 

But the opening lines were very low to begin with, compared to the last 2 years.

 

The highest opening line we had this week was 2 games at 37.5 and 2 games at 37.

 

In 2005 we had 8 games open at 37 or higher

and in 2006 we had 7 games open at 37 or higher

 

So this might be the year that betting blind unders would sting, but we'll have to see how it plays out...

[CMac83]

Those "Week 1" O/U totals are for the Preseason Week 1, not regular season Week 1.

Edited August 8, 2007 by CMac83

[Steeltown Dre]

Those "Week 1" O/U totals are for the Preseason Week 1, not regular season Week 1.

 

Correct - Preseason Week 1. This thread only will discuss preseason lines. We'll start a thread closer to the regular season for regular season week 1.

 

You can tell just by looking at them - no way those would be regular season O/Us...

[notamomo]

I may be gambling this week. Mostly hunches, but what do you think of these:

 

Green Bay at Pittsburgh O/U 35.5-- U

Jacksonville at Miami O/U 34-- U

Kansas City at Cleveland O/U 34.5-- U

Chicago at Houston O/U 32.5-- O

Arizona at Oakland O/U 35-- U

Philadelphia at Baltimore O/U 31-- O

[Mojo Rising]

any thoughts about today's games?

[Steeltown Dre]

any thoughts about today's games?

 

Out of town since Thurs for a funeral on short notice. So no plays for me last weekend.

 

Thus far in the preseason week 1:

 

Favs have gone 8-7 ATS

Under has gone 8-6-1 ATS

 

So no real trends thus far, other than the fact that the avg O/U total was much lower this preseason so far:

 

2005: 37

2006: 36.2

2007: 34.4

 

The actual totals were

 

2005: 34 (would have been 31.7 if not for a 69 point total in the Philly/Pitt Monday Night game on 8/15/05)

2006: 32.5

2007: 33.9

 

As you can see, the value (on avg) of the lines were reduced by Vegas to start with, and then even further by early action by sharps. As a result, the actual totals were very close to the lines on avg:

 

2005: 3 points lower on avg (5.3 points lower in 15 of 16 games)

2006: 3.7 points lower

2007: 0.5 points lower

[Steeltown Dre]

Brandon Lang has been getting abused - that or the fade rule is 100% in affect:

 

Week 1:

Thursday - Detroit (5 Dime) Loss

Friday - Falcons (5 Dime) Loss

Saturday - Jac (5 Dime) Loss

Monday - Eagles (5 Dime) Loss

Monday - Niners (5 Dime) Loss

Thursday - KC (20 Dime) Loss

 

Here's what he said on Thursday morning:

 

20 Dime

Kansas City Chiefs

You only lay 3. If your man has 3 1/2 you buy the half point and only lay 3

 

The guy is 0-6 so far this season and out 45 Dimes.... I'll let you know who he's got tonight (If I can) and we can fade away.

 

My leans for tonight are NE, Car, and NE over, in that order.

 

That's just what I'm looking at, have not made any plays yet.... usually when I have a lean, I either play it or make no play at all if it cools on me.... we'll see how the rest of the afternoon goes.

 

My system kicks in once the regular season starts, but I usually like to wait until the 3rd or 4th week, once we've got some good results into the system, to start really relying heavily on it and upping my bets across the board. Right now the capping is just a few calculations and (mostly) information obtained about starters PT, coaching trends, injuries and other non-statistical information. So all my preseason plays are lighter than plays made in the regular season, and plays made from October onwards are usually where I start getting most comfortable. Of course, that is when lines would get tighter (on average), but exploiting those and finding the soft ones is the fun part.