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Confidence Factor


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Projections are merely the most likely number that you can come up with. However - some projections are just rock solid when, say, a QB has thrown 300 yards and 2 TDs in every game that year. Tons of data that point to that outcome. When a player in a new situation - say he has never played before - then you have to come up with a number and you project to the best of your ability with the scant information available but you could not possibly be as confident about it as you were with the above QB.

 

Think of it as a risk indicator. Some players are way more risky to rely on than others. The fewer stars, the more risk there is in relying on the player. It offers a qualitative measure to a quantitative guess.

 

Bottom line - you have to come up with a number. Confidence Factor describes that number.

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