Illegal Immigration and the US Economy

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...from a newsletter I receive...

 

Migration Level Serves as Economic Indicator

 

One of the most reliable indicators of the health of hte US economy seems to be the number of illegal immigrants the country hosts. An extended study from researchers at Arizona State indicates that illegal migration into the US begins to dramatically slow about 12 months before a marked economic downturn and as it happens the Border Patrol noted that it was seeing fewer crossing and they were apprehending fewer people starting about nine to twelve months ago. Much has been made of the increased security and there are those that claim that hte decline is attributable to the increased number of National Guard troops, improved surveillance equipment and more stringent treatment. It is undoubtedly true that this enhanced security played a role but the study suggests that there have been similar patters of decline in years when there was no such increase security effort.

 

The connection is pretty obvious and has some interesting implications. The majority of those coming into the US illegally are well aware of the job opportunities and most have clear destinations and expectations of employment. They are the people who perform the msot marginal and vulnerable of jobs and are therefore most likely to see these jobs vanish when times get tough. There are many misnomers about the motivation for the immigration and the behavior of those that come to the US illegally. The fact that the ebb and flow of migrants is closely tied to the performance of hte economy is an indication that most of these people are connected to the US in significant ways and have the ability to monitor the opportunities in the US. This would suggest that they are not simply scrambling across the border and hoping for the best. This behavior also reinforces the notion that companies that employ these workers are not taking jobs away from willing Americans. These jobs simply do not exist unless one is willing to work for the very low wages traditionally paid to the migrant laborer.