Trade Advice for EVERYONE

[Cowboyz1]

These are just my thoughts on the subject so feel free to add or challenge any of my thoughts. Here goes.......

 

 

Trading is probably the most difficult part of Fantasy Football. It is difficult because assessing value or creating a formula for fair and unfair is so subjective because there are so many variables in each trade option.

 

Before I start, my golden rule above all else is this. The NFL is a pressure cooker and what you will find is each week the stress of performing increases exponentially each week for coaches, players, fans, books, and Fantasy Football owners. Therefore, NFL players that have performed in the playoffs and late in the season tend to do well in the latter part of the season even if they start out slow, while rookies and flyers tend to drop off. That goes for NFL teams as well. Teams that start off well tend to die out as the good teams start to play good football as the pressure increases to win. The cream rises to the top as they say. Remember new comers tend to do well early because there is very little tape on them. But as teams get tape and review what they do well and what they don’t, teams begin to take away things that worked early in the season. That is why I like seasoned vets who are strong when the pressure is on vs. the Chansi Stuckey’s, Eddie Royal, Desean Jacksons, etc. of the league. When Farve drops back to pass on 4th and 10 with the playoffs on the line who is he going to trust, Stuckey who may be open or Coles? I say Coles. If Romo needs a play I submit he will look to T.O. or Witten in a pitch rather then Autsin. Players go to whom they trust in the clutch, and it takes time to develope that trust. If you will notice as teams start to get desperate for wins, plays become harder to come by and points tend to go down as games get tighter. Also NFL teams with losing records tend to have to find other things to play for other then postseason so you never know what is on those individuals minds anymore, where as those teams with winning records seem to step it up and every player wants to perform for his team. This is the same for Fantasy Football owners also. Owners at the bottom pack it in early sometimes and lose interest if they aren’t in the hunt. Be watchful, a sure sign is starting a player on a bye. You can gut that guy for studs many times because they quit already.

 

Basically, I look at trading as a function of these things.

 

1. Current strength of your team relative to the strength of others in your league

2. Current record of your team relative to possible trading partners

3. Perceived value of players at any given time in the season

4. Position strength as it pertains to league scoring system

5. Owners experience

6. Perceived present value vs. actual future value

7. Know your other owners

8. Use the waiver wire as trade leverage

 

 

Each one of these topics could be a book and the longer you play FF you will see this, but I will briefly try to explain each of them.

 

1. First thing you want to do is evaluate the strength of your team vs. the rest of your league. I use each position. I rank the QB in the league from top to bottom. If there are 8 teams then I rank 8 if 12 then 12. I do this for each position, now and for the rest of the season. Once you do this you will have a pretty good idea of where you are strong and where you are weak. Remember your record notwithstanding because this early in the season you could have solid players that have not been performing or have been injured. Now it is important to rank them based on your scoring system. For example, if your scoring system gives QB's points for TD's only and not yardage then a Romo or Cutler or Warner would be at the top of your lists. However, what if your league takes points away for turnovers. Well then Warner would be lowered on your list because he is prone to turning the ball over and may lose his job over it. Point per Catch leagues mean a player like Reggie Bush is one of the top RB's as he is not only the leading receiver in the league right now but he also is a RB. So Bush is basically the most valuable RB in a PPR league right now. Bottom line is this, the better you do at ranking the players at each position the better off you will be at evaluating a trade option. That in itself is a science that takes practice and insight.

 

2. Team records will tell you a lot about what an owner is feeling. The top dog feels pretty good about his team and if inexperienced will feel arrogant and somewhat invulnerable. This owner feels he has made all the right moves and can coast to the championship. He may ignore the waiver wire and only dabble to cover bye weeks. This guy may be the one you want to look hard at his bench. As you move down the pack you find more uncertainty until you reach the bottom and you see panic or disinterested owners due to their poor records. Fact is the season is only beginning and the winner could be just about anyone right now. However, teams at the bottom must make their move now if they have any hope to win the league. Each trading partner will have a different motivation that you have to be in tune with in order to be successful in trading. If your trading with the top half of the league you are more likely to get players they they don't see the future value in but you do if you did your homework. They may not see the future value in a bench player because they are lulled into a secure position because their starters are performing and they aren't paying much attention to their Bench value. For example, a guy who has Warner may be counting on him all year which is Risky. He may be willing to part with Big Ben or Jake Dellomme because they feel secure. Or maybe they feel secure about Ryan Grant and while he may not be producing up to expectations may trade Jackson whom just may become the starter if Grant keeps putting it on the ground and doesn't improve his 3.5 ypc average. If your trading with owners at the bottom they are desperate for improvement so you may be able to trade a PERCEIVED stud now for a solid stud the rest of the season. This is where you have to do your homework. Trade on position strength vs. just points. Look at it this way. Player A has 60 points now and player B has only 40. You can use this to your advantage if lets say player A is a WR and player B is a TE. The TE has better value then the WR because compared to the rest of the TE's player B is a top 3 vs. a top 15 WR. Point being you want to trade for players that strengthen each position RELATIVE to their respective positions. You may give up two good receivers in order to get the BEST TE because you have one GREAT receiver now. Key here is you want to trade for value at each position so that relatively speaking you have the top QB, top WR, top TE, top Def etc on down the line. Top meaning a roster that can beat each opponent because each week your combination leverages positional advantage so that you win. You can get there by trading away strength at one position for Best at other positions thus minimizing your weaknesses at other positions. For example, Jason Witten value is so much more then what he does at the TE position. He is basically a stud WR. With Witten's weekly performance he can act as two players sometimes. If you look at the team with Witten that team outperforms every other TE in the league by often times double. Which means if you are playing that owner with Jason Witten you will need to use two players’ performances to match or beat that one spot on his roster. Hard to do. This is what I mean by positional advantage. You aren’t going to be able to have the best player at each position but you can create positional advantages throughout the season that keeps you winning. What you want to do is on a weekly basis put your roster in a position that each team you play you have a positional match up that is to your advantage. Remember there are so many variables to the season, weather, home or away, dome or outdoor, etc. The teams with QB's in bad weather cities are at a disadvantage to teams with QB's on indoor teams some weeks. Romo is therefore valued higher to me then Cutler even if Cutler keeps going off this month. Like I said this could be a book on valuing players but these are just some things to think about. The better you are at valuing a player given all the changing circumstances in for the entire season the better off you will be in trading. Thinking ahead is what wins.

 

3. Account for the time of the season. Early in the season the weather is good for the most part but look at what happens in the later months. Teams that can run get stronger and teams that can’t get weaker. Think about kickers in good weather and domes. Injuries and when players get back. In one of my leagues Deion Branch, Fargas, Bobby Engram, and Ryan Torian were all on the waiver wire. I grabbed them all as at least two of them will be starters and can be used to trade or start down the stretch. Use this to influence owners or create doubt in their mind about performance down the stretch. Hey you know Cutler is playing in the snow come playoff time? Or Deion is coming off injury so it will take him a while to get back into things don’t you think? Or the other side is Branch is their starting wide out you think he is not going to get the ball A LOT? Who’s right? I will tell you this, who ever is right, will get a good receiver or use him to get a good receiver.

 

4. Know your points system and how it affects your league. This is another book but DMD has good info on this site for this. Basically, the league scoring system will dictate how valuable a position is relative to the others. PPR leagues mean RB’s who catch the ball out of the backfield are far more valuable then RB who don’t. PPR leagues widen the range of quality starters in a league. TD only leagues make having players who score touchdowns paramount and thus players like Brady last year, LT, T.O. are invaluable and very hard to get if you don’t have them already.

 

5. Owners experience is probably the most important thing to know when trading. Experience players know how to value players and if you are trading with an experience person they most likely aren’t going to trade unless it is a win win or win kill. If you are dealing with inexperience you can probably snow them a bit.

 

 

6. Perceived present value vs. future value. Don’t forget to look short term AND long term. Short term moves can help you win today while long term moves help you win all year. You have to make short term moves to avoid those spot losses but be sure you don’t sacrifice long term winning with a short term move. For example, Lance Moore is a great start for the past two weeks but risky long term because Colsten returning could start the performance shuffle all over again. Look flyers with skeptical eyes. The rule is if this is the first time the guy has done it then don’t count on him until he does it a few more times against teams he shouldn’t be doing it to. That is my test. Obviously you can’t wait all year to trust the guy but be cautions about perceptions but also take advantage of them. If a player is hot leverage it to get consistency. Use hot players to get solid ones. Down the stretch points become harder to come by as teams get more desperate and the pressure mounts week by week. Rookie’s tend to fade and Vets tend to come on.

 

7. The best thing you can do is know your owners. Learn what they like and don’t like. Watch their tendencies. Know who their favorite teams are. Know who burned them in the past. If they have been Shannahaned don’t think they will trade for a Den RB they won’t. Dallas fans won’t trade Romo or Barber. Do they panic if they lose? Emotions play a key role in FF. If a player let a guy down one week he may be inclined to let that guy go for less then he would have a week earlier. Timing is key with other owners. Keep a pulse on your other owners.

 

8. Use the waiver wire order to your advantage. You can trade a player for player swap and then also ask if that owner wants a Waiver Wire player that you may be in the position to give him because you are earlier in the waiver order.

 

A lot of this is just a reiteration of much of what is already on this board. DMD has done a great job over the years breaking most of this stuff down. Look in the archives for questions because most all of them have been answered in some way or another. I am just giving you some of my stuff I use. There have been so many discussion about all this stuff it can be confusing because there is no right answer just perspectives. This just happens to be mine. Use this with others here on the board and find what works for you. It is all about finding a system of evaluating players, teams, coaches, schemes and combining that with real time circumstances such as weather, injuries, and field conditions in order to put together a fantasy roster that will beat your opponent that week. Then do it consistently for enough weeks to win it all. A lot to digest but the journey to winning is worth the effort. Good luck and hope this helps.

Edited October 2, 2008 by Cowboyz1

[Cowboyz1]

I know there is more to be said about this. Would like to here others thoughts on this.

[gman62]

You have covered the subject quite thoroughly. I would re-iterate to all my top 3 rules in fantasy football that you have touched on.

1. Know thy scoring system

2. Know thy scoring system.

3. Know thy scoring system..

 

I am in a league with very unique scoring. This year the commissioner decided he was going to tweak the scoring system AFTER the draft. Fortunately my draft was fairly balanced but I had to make some quick adjustments to adjust to the scoring changes. Normally I would think that this kind of thing doesnt happen in most leagues. I pitched a fit on the message boards about it along with others, long story short is the Commish felt we were undermining his authority and threatened quitting. We compromised for the integrity of the league to be able to finish the year out. All of us were under the assumption the scoring would be the same as previous years. He took over the Commish spot this year and felt he had 'carte blanche' power and made changes he thought were justified. He didnt feel it would make much different overall. Being analytical I crunched the numbers and told him my results. I felt it would alter roughly 10-15% of the games played. So according to my calculations up to 1 game per week would change from a Win to a Loss.

 

To me that was SIGNIFICANT. Hugely so. He didnt see it that way. So the scoring changes stayed put and were modified AFTER the draft. I'm here to tell you this is a HUGE NO NO! Many of the players in my league feel it doesnt matter what the scoring system is as long as you drafted a balanced team. True to a certain extent. But knowing your scoring system can be the the most important element in your success and a leg up on the competition.

 

For example, at our draft I saw all the same draft cheat sheets that are published in many magazines and websites. These are good only if they match your scoring systems. If not you are basically running blind and can be picked apart at the draft. This leads to my next controversial subject. Most people think LUCK has a huge part in the equation. I on the other hand feel LUCK/CHANCE is actually a small part. In fact I think you should strive to reduce CHANCE to a small percentage of the equation and thereby increase your odds of winning.

My 2nd big strategy is to play with the playoffs in view. It doesnt matter if you win the regular season only to finish 4th in the playoffs. There is basically only 1 winner in fantasy football the superbowl champ. So with that said your goals are to get in the playoffs and then to ultimately win the championship.

 

In my league 6 out of 12 make the playoffs with the top 2 getting a bye. Weeks 14/15/16 are crucial then. So if you rank in the top 50% of the league you will make it into the playoffs. That seems pretty doable and im my opinion it is. So the hard part is winning it all. So at about this point in the year I shift my strategy on winning the matchups for those 3 weeks. I dont care about this week or next but focus on the playoff weeks. That being said it helps to get an early head start on the competition. I am currently 3-1 in my league and tied with 2 others for 1st. Good position to be in as I can focus my full attention to weeks 14/15/16.

Take your current roster out right now and see where thay rank on their matchups for the playoffs. If certain players have a poor matchup in those critical weeks then now is the time to work trades for those with more favorable matchups and hopefully to those teams hurting for wins like the 1-3 teams.

 

Trends for the year have been established by week 5. Who has the better defenses, who has the better offenses, what teams are bottom dwellers and who are contenders. Their are plenty of websites that rank the defenses and offenses both in passing and rushing as well as more intricate details Use the data to evaluate your roster lineup for the rest of the season matchups. See which players have the most favorable matchups and those that are unfavorable. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Also, never under estimate the value of playing the matchups. You may have a guy that just plays his studs week in and week out. And if he drafted well he may do well overall without much maintenance and set his lineup on cruise control. He can be beat by the diligent manager who works the free agent pool, waiver wire, trades and keeping up on injuries.

 

Back to the scoring system. In my league it favors QBs over every other position point-wise. The defense position is the second highest point getter. Knowing this it is important to apply emphasis on these 2 positions over others even though we start only 1 QB and 1 Defense. For this reason I have adopted the strategy to roster 2 QBs and 2 Defenses all year, not just for bye week purposes but for the most flexibility week to week depending on the matchups, So far it has worked out. Also, penalty points are fairly soft so interception and fumbles aren't a deal breaker. Knowing that helped me pick up Warner. Defense has been the trickiest demon to conquer as the Commish added return yards to a defense's scoring system. So every week there is a wild high scoring game, those defenses actually do very well. That is a monkey wrench that must be dealt with.

 

Here is our my scoring system so all can evaluate:

Completions (2)

Incomplete Passes (-2)

Passing Yards (1 yards per point)

Passing Touchdowns (60)

Interceptions (-45)

Sacks (-10)

Rushing Attempts (-1)

Rushing Yards (0.5 yards per point)

Rushing Touchdowns (60)

Reception Yards (0.5 yards per point)

Reception Touchdowns (60)

Return Yards (1 yards per point)

Return Touchdowns (60)

2-Point Conversions (20)

Fumbles Lost (-20)

Field Goals 0-19 Yards (10)

Field Goals 20-29 Yards (15)

Field Goals 30-39 Yards (20)

Field Goals 40-49 Yards (25)

Field Goals 50+ Yards (30)

Field Goals Missed 0-19 Yards (-30)

Field Goals Missed 20-29 Yards (-20)

Field Goals Missed 30-39 Yards (-10)

Field Goals Missed 40-49 Yards (-5)

Field Goals Missed 50+ Yards (-0)

Point After Attempt Made (10)

Point After Attempt Missed (-30)

Sack (10)

Interception (45)

Fumble Recovery (45)

Touchdown (60)

Safety (20)

Block Kick (20)

Return Yards (1 yards per point)

Kickoff and Punt Return Touchdowns (60)

Points Allowed 0 points (150)

Points Allowed 1-6 points (100)

Points Allowed 7-13 points (75)

Points Allowed 14-20 points (50)

Points Allowed 21-27 points (-25)

Points Allowed 28-34 points (-50)

Points Allowed 35+ points (-75)

Besides what I have already stated above, deciphering how the scoring system affects players is crucial. For example, return yards are includes in offense in this league. That puts a huge premium on players that return as well as play offense such as Sproles, Norwood, Higgins, Parrish, Royal and the like. Here is the kicker; with return yards included it improves your point total if your player is on a team with a weak defense and a good offense thereby increasing their return opportunities as well as their offensive looks/touches. Advabntage SD, Denver and Atlanta.

 

So in conclusion, you don't have to have the marquee player names to win at fantasy football. Playing the matchups and knowing your scoring systems can win it all with some rather obscure players. That being said you have to use these advice forums with a grain of salt as everyone is playing with different scoring systems. What works in their league may not work in yours and vice versa. So if someone gives you advice w/o asking or knowing your scoring system it means much less than if they do. That's why I value the opinion of those that make their decision based on your specific scoring.

 

Any input on strategy to play my league base on it's scoring system would be greatly appreciated. i have questioned whether rostering 2 defenses is the best strategy? So far it is working. if you have any comments please feel free to give them.

Edited October 3, 2008 by gman62

[Cowboyz1]

Good stuff there Gman. Wow that is one heck of a scoring system.

 

To your question about Defenses and keeping two. I like that idea of keeping two D's. Gives you a chance to play matchups and also gives you an option on Bye's so you don't have to drop your primary to cover that week.In your scoring system Defense and special teams is very important, more so then any league I have been in. Your right in paying attention to those position.

 

Also thanks for the reminder to focus closely on the playoff schedule.

 

 

I was hoping for just this kind of input from people and I hope there is more to come from others.

[Cowboyz1]

Here is my other long write up if anyone is interested. I read this again myself for a reminder.