Weeks 1-3 coin flips more effective

[grobert81]

Well, weeks 1-3 came and went and I looked back at how varied my starting line up was compared to my bench and I noticed something interesting.

 

Are you ready for it?

 

After all the research and WDIS threads and matchup considerations it turns out that on average coin flipping over 3 mock lineup picks ending up being more effective then stats, data, and experts/forum replies led me to believe.

 

Week 1 - Final Score 108 actual

Week 2 - Final Score 114 actual

Week 3 - Final Score 89 actual

 

I coin flipped three times for week one results and the first two times it turns out my score was higher then the flips, but the third time my score was lower then the coin flips. Probably because DeSean Jax scored a huge ball return TD but we dont count that in my league so his actual output was horrible for me that week.

 

Mock coin flip picked Gore in week 2 aprox. 2 out of 3 times and since he had an amazing week coupled with Jennings scoring zero it turns out coin flipping was more effective.

 

Week 3 is the show stopper. Gore went down on the first play after an amazing week and that really killed me in week 3 coupled with the fact that I still didn't believe DeSean was the real deal yet with McNabb still out so I didn't start him. (ugh was I wrong!) In my three coin flip picks DeSean got picked all 3 times and Gore got left out once... since i lost that week by 1 point it turns out flipping coins was 100% more effective then my starting line up.

 

End result?

 

Week 1 - Coin flip was better then my lineup 33%

Week 2 - Coin flip was better then my lineup 66%

Week 3 - Coin flip was better then my lineup 100%

 

Ironically week 1 was basically (start your best players) and no one was injured so it really wasn't up for debate. It makes sense that coin flipping didn't secure a larger outcome that week.

 

Week 2 on the other hand I consulted a LOT of league winners, players who had competed in FF for well over a decade, forums, you name it. And none the less I would have been better off with flipping coins.

 

Week 3 is just a shame. I say this one was more luck based, I mean who could have predicted DeSean have two monster weeks in a row with a groin injury and Gore going down in the first play? Still... flipping coins all 3 times instead of my hours of research would have resulted in a win vs my loss.

 

So strange. I would estimate that coin flipping gets much less effective around weeks 5-6+ when Byes and Trends make a larger impact on lineup choices. But for early games in the season its so luck basesd without much statistical evidence to go off of that next year I might just flip coins for games 2 and 3 on a non-pay league just to see if it has equal or better results.

Edited October 3, 2009 by grobert81