kroyrunner89 Posted December 25, 2009 Share Posted December 25, 2009 Chargers +3 @ Titans 47 Seahawks +14 @ Packers 41.5 Raiders +3 @ Browns 38 Chiefs +13.5 @ Bengals 40 Bills +9 @ Falcons 41 Texans +3 @ Dolphins 45 Panthers +7 @ Giants 42.5 Bucs +14 @ Saints 49 Jags +9 @ Patriots 43.5 Ravens +3 @ Steelers 42 Broncos +7 @ Eagles 41.5 Rams +14 @ Cardinals 43.5 Lions +13 @ 49ers 41 Jets +5.5 @ Colts 40.5 Cowboys -6.5 @ Redskins 42 Vikings -7 @ Bears 41 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kroyrunner89 Posted December 27, 2009 Author Share Posted December 27, 2009 I've had what I consider to be a very disappointing last two weeks, despite still having a winning record over that span of 6-5-1. I feel like I've done a bad job filtering my plays, and I could have easily avoided some of those losers. So, I look to bounce back this week and get back to picking games at a higher level of success. I've fallen just a couple games off of my goal of 67%, so I'll have to really step it up to get back to that mark! Here's what I'm liking this weekend: * New England Patriots -9 The Patriots have feasted on weak passing defenses this year, and this is exactly what they'll face this week against the Jaguars, who are 4th worst in the league at yards per pass attempt allowed. Since the Pats are a bottom 8 team at yards per rush attempt, and the Jags are top 8 in the league on defense in this category, it seems clear to me that the Patriots will choose to focus their attack through the air and really exploit this weakness. I doubt points are a problem for them in this one. The question that leaves is how dangerous the Jaguars' offense can be, and if they can keep up. At home this year the Patriots are allowing under 14 ppg, and on the road the Jaguars are averaging slightly above 14 ppg. With the Patriots' biggest weakness being their pass defense, and Jacksonville ranking 20th in the league at yards per pass attempt, I don't think they'll be able to exploit the Patriot defense and New England should come away with a double digit win. * Houston Texans +1 Everyone knows that the Texans have struggled running the ball this year, with their greatest strength being passing (They rank 5th in the league in yards per pass attempt). So, when a team's greatest strength plays into their opponents' greatest weakness (Miami is 8th worst team in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed), I feel that there is a good opportunity for a win. Miami has allowed 31 ppg this year to teams that are top 8 in the league at throwing the ball, and I envision the Texans bouncing back from a dismal offensive performance last weekend against the Rams. Defensively, the Texans are average against the pass and slightly above average against the run, so I feel like the Dolphins offense will have some opportunities, but not as many as the Texans. I think the Texans will take this game and keep themselves alive for a playoff spot. * New York Jets +5.5 * Jets/Colts UNDER 40.5 First of all, we don't know how much playing time the Colts' starters will be seeing in this game. It sounds like Freeney and Mathis will be used sparingly, and that it is quite possible Manning does not play the entire contest as the Colts continue to stress that 16-0 is not their goal. With Freeney and Mathis not on the field too often, I look for the Jets to advantage of their rushing attack (5th in yards per rush attempt), hopefully putting some long drives together and putting some points on the board. I'd expect that times the Jets start to get close would be when we're more likely to see Freeney and Mathis on the field, so the Jets may have to settle for field goals a few times. Meanwhile, when the Colts get opportunities, they certainly will have no easy task. The Jets have been one of the best defenses in the league, currently 5th best in yards per rush attempt allowed, and 1st in yards per pass attempt allowed. I expect them to frustrate Manning and really limit the Colts' opportunities to score, keeping this a defensive battle. In the end, whether Manning comes out of the game or not, I think we're likely to see a 17-13 type of game, with the Jets very possibly winning outright. I'm going to hold it to that this weekend and see if getting more selective again can help right the ship! Good luck everyone! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1stand10 Posted December 27, 2009 Share Posted December 27, 2009 (edited) Week 16 Giants -7 Phins -1 Jets +5.5 Dallas -6.5 Vikes -7 Edited December 27, 2009 by 1stand10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Do Work Son Posted December 27, 2009 Share Posted December 27, 2009 Carolina +9 Pitt/Balt over 43 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Do Work Son Posted December 27, 2009 Share Posted December 27, 2009 add Arizona -16 With Steven Jackson out who the heck is gonna get the rams offense going? I would take Arizona -24 and still feel comfortable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Do Work Son Posted December 29, 2009 Share Posted December 29, 2009 Tonights game.... Bears +9 Over 42 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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