QB Quandry for Week 17

[delusions of grandeur]

(Yes, I know a week 17 championship is ridiculous, but maybe next year we can finally change this stupid rule.)

 

So since Ryan got injured, it's been QB by comittee here, with me making the wrong choice each week. Fortunately, the rest of my team has stepped up, and still made it to the Championship. This week, I am planning to start Ryan, but after looking at the projections, Freeman is actually rated higher, and you can see why here:

 

Ryan @ TB

Freeman vs. ATL

 

I also have Flacco @ OAK, but the way they've relied on the run most of the season, Flacco is merely a desperation play to me at this point.

 

 

Normally, there'd be no question that I'd start a semi-healthy Ryan (with no Turner) over Freeman, but the way the Falcon's pass D has gotten destroyed and the TB has been shutting them down the last few weeks, the matchup obviously favors the rookie at this point.

 

I'm pretty sure I'm going to start my franchise QB anyway, but is there anyone else out there who would gamble on the rookie in this all-important final week?

[delusions of grandeur]

Oh, and we have 6 points for TDs, but only -1 for INTS, which along with the matchup, are the only reason I still consider Freeman an option over Ryan

[ts]

Wow ... you need a three-sided coin to make this decision. Frankly, I've pretty much given up trying to predict which Flacco will surface in any given week - the 300/3 Flacco, or the 175/0 variety.

 

Freeman I trust probably the least of any of these guys, but that is not to say he can't have a reasonable game. On the surface, I'd lean towards Ryan, but don't know of losing Gonzo (assuming he sits) is going to impact his numbers significantly.

 

All in all, my crystal ball sees each of these 3 getting you something between 210 - 240 yards ... and 1 TD on average ... so the "winner" will be the QB that manages to throw 2 TDs ... for no particular reason, I think that Ryan and Flacco have the better chances at a multi-score game. The re-emergence of Heap as a viable target seems to be boosting Flacco's production recently, since he now has an actual target other than Mason ... while Ryan seems to be losing viable targets, with all of the recent ATL injuries at various skill positions.

 

Ryan may have a slightly higher overall ceiling this week than Flacco, but my gut feeling is that Flacco just might be the QB that combines some upside potential with a bit of a safety net for "decent numbers" ... so I guess my three-sided coin came up Flacco.

 

Good luck.

Edited January 2, 2010 by ts

[delusions of grandeur]

Wow ... you need a three-sided coin to make this decision. Frankly, I've pretty much given up trying to predict which Flacco will surface in any given week - the 300/3 Flacco, or the 175/0 variety.

 

Freeman I trust probably the least of any of these guys, but that is not to say he can't have a reasonable game. On the surface, I'd lean towards Ryan, but don't know of losing Gonzo (assuming he sits) is going to impact his numbers significantly.

 

All in all, my crystal ball sees each of these 3 getting you something between 210 - 240 yards ... and 1 TD on average ... so the "winner" will be the QB that manages to throw 2 TDs ... for no particular reason, I think that Ryan and Flacco have the better chances at a multi-score game. The re-emergence of Heap as a viable target seems to be boosting Flacco's production recently, since he now has an actual target other than Mason ... while Ryan seems to be losing viable targets, with all of the recent ATL injuries at various skill positions.

 

Ryan may have a slightly higher overall ceiling this week than Flacco, but my gut feeling is that Flacco just might be the QB that combines some upside potential with a bit of a safety net for "decent numbers" ... so I guess my three-sided coin came up Flacco.

 

Good luck.

 

Thanks ts. Great advice as usual.

 

It IS really frustrating with Flacco. I play Freeman over him in week 1 of the playoffs, he scores 4 TDs. I start him last week, and he has a mediocre day while Ryan soars. So frustrating! I guess that's why I didn't want to include him, but I agree, he's probably not any more of a crapshoot than my other choices.

 

Being an ATL fan might make me lean towards Ryan, but if Tony G doesn't play, I guess I gotta be realistic.

 

Thanks for all the help this season. I hope you had a good year too.