Anybody have action today?

[rattsass]

I've been looking into the Pats/Lions matchup, spread is now 7.5. Call me crazy but I'm thinking the Lions are a serious play here. I have been on a thanksgiving roll ( so to speak) betting against the Lions on T-day, and they rarely disappoint. And this year with the Pats coming to town, you surely think I am loony for suggesting betting against the heavy faves.

 

But, the Lions have been gold ATS this season. They are undefeated ATS at home. And the Pats have been anything but ATS gold on the road. To put it in perspective, my quick and dirty numbers check on the Pats revealed that they have only beaten a road opponent by more than a touchdown once since the beginning of '09. And that was the blowout at Miami in week 4.

 

So we have a home team, great ATS at home, hosting a team terrible ATS on the road, on a 3 days rest.

 

It goes against the grain. It doesn't seem right. Vegas seemingly appropriately lets the public pound them on Thanksgiving day lately. But this one stinks to high heaven. The historical trends on Thanksgiving day seem to point directly away from the Lions. They usually get blown out. But this isn't the same Lions team. Yes, they still lose. But they haven't been getting blown out, certainly not at home. Just thought I'd throw this out there for any of you gaming enthusiasts. Don't fall for the Pats at the big number today. The Lions are the right play,even if they don't turn out to be the winning play. LIONS +7.5 or 8, or whatever you can get by the time Joe Public lays it all down on NE.

[caddyman]

I've been looking into the Pats/Lions matchup, spread is now 7.5. Call me crazy but I'm thinking the Lions are a serious play here. I have been on a thanksgiving roll ( so to speak) betting against the Lions on T-day, and they rarely disappoint. And this year with the Pats coming to town, you surely think I am loony for suggesting betting against the heavy faves.

 

But, the Lions have been gold ATS this season. They are undefeated ATS at home. And the Pats have been anything but ATS gold on the road. To put it in perspective, my quick and dirty numbers check on the Pats revealed that they have only beaten a road opponent by more than a touchdown once since the beginning of '09. And that was the blowout at Miami in week 4.

 

So we have a home team, great ATS at home, hosting a team terrible ATS on the road, on a 3 days rest.

 

It goes against the grain. It doesn't seem right. Vegas seemingly appropriately lets the public pound them on Thanksgiving day lately. But this one stinks to high heaven. The historical trends on Thanksgiving day seem to point directly away from the Lions. They usually get blown out. But this isn't the same Lions team. Yes, they still lose. But they haven't been getting blown out, certainly not at home. Just thought I'd throw this out there for any of you gaming enthusiasts. Don't fall for the Pats at the big number today. The Lions are the right play,even if they don't turn out to be the winning play. LIONS +7.5 or 8, or whatever you can get by the time Joe Public lays it all down on NE.

Um...they beat the Steelers by 13.

[historymike]

I would drop a C-note on that bet, were I a spread betting man with a few C-notes to spare. The Lions have been outscored by opponents to the tune of exactly 3 points this year (non-math majors: that is a margin of 0.3 PPG, or an average score of Opponents 23.7, Lions 23.4). As you noted, the Lions play tough at home, and the game is very meaningful to players and fans despite the current 2-8 record. This is a team that could conceivably be 6-4 or even 7-3 right now with a couple of bad coaching decisions or turnovers not happening.

 

Also, the Pats are only 3-2 on the road, hardly making them invincible, and the only road game in which they were dominant was the 41-14 victory over Miami (helped out, of course, by the ST meltdown of the Fins). Yes, the Pats are finding ways to win, but they often play very close games, and 7.5 points is an awful lot to give.

[rattsass]

Um...they beat the Steelers by 13.

I said quick. Not accurate.