Comparing draft day trades...

[j2v]

I've heard the draft value chart is somewhat outdated, but using the four trades in last night's first round as a reference it seems to be holding pretty true. In all four cases the team moving up "overpaid", anywhere from 22 points (the equivalent of a mid-sixth round pick) to 270 points (the equivalent of the last pick in the second round).

 

Cleveland gives 1.6 (1600 points)

Atlanta gives 1.27 (680), 2.27 (310), and 4.27 (49) plus 2012 #1 (544) and #4 (39)* for a total of 1622

Falcons "overpay" by 22 points

* The rule of thumb is that next year's pick is roughly equal to 80 percent of the value of that pick this year

 

Washington gives 1.10 (1300)

Jacksonville gives 1.16 (1000) and 2.17 (410) for a total of 1410

Jaguars "overpay" by 110 points

 

Kansas City gives 1.21 (800)

Cleveland gives 1.27 (680) and 3.6 (240) for a total of 920

Browns "overpay" by 120 points

 

New England gives 1.28 (660)

New Orleans gives 2.24 (340) plus 2012 #1 (592) for a total of 932

Saints "overpay" by 270 points

 

So the chart is at least in the ballpark, and if you want to move up (at least in the first round) you'll likely have to overpay according to the chart.

 

If the Redskins (9th) or 49ers (13th) want to move up to New England's pick to get their QB of choice (with Buffalo and Cincy picking 2 and 3 in the round, the first three picks of Round 2 could very well be quarterbacks), they'll need to exceed the 580 points 2.1 is worth. That would necessitate Washington trading one of this year's 2s and next year's 3rd; for SF, it's likely this year's 2 and 3.

 

2V