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Average Auction Values


detlef
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OK, so everytime someone talks about trading picks, we all jump in with our own, very biased impression of what the picks are worth based on what we'd do with them.

 

Of course, there's massive limitations there. Not the least of which is that, the only way you can be sure to get the guy you were planning on taking with those picks is to reach for someone that is certain to be there.

 

Why not consult the market?

 

I looked at the last 3 years (including this one) of MFL's Average Auction Values.

 

It's pretty uncanny how dependably regular the values are at various stages. On average, top dudes go for about $50, and you're at about half that by pick 30 or so.

 

What that means is, regardless of what you may think, the all-mighty market says the 1st pick in a 12 team league is worth pretty much what a couple of picks in the middle 2nd round are worth combined.

 

Curious about going from the beginning of the 1st to the end? That's worth about $20, or a late 3rd round pick with just a throw-away pick at the end of the draft to even things out.

 

Here they are, btw

 

2010

2011

2012

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Perfect way to value draft positions for trades. What you could do is simply publish that same AAV list and assign a projected draft position (from the ADP list) to each player, giving you the value/proportionate value to use to determine snake draft trade values. Brilliant!

Edited by SecondString
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