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Should I move my pick? Would you?


JTFootball
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I have had the last pick, second to last pick, and third to last pick in drafts I have done. I have also had the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd picks. It is definitely a double edge sword. The plus is that you get 2 picks pretty much back to back. The downside is that you have to wait 9,10,11 picks before you. Of course, having the last pick in the first round means you won your league last year; which is great! Personally, I would prefer to be in the middle (4-7) if I don't win my league. Your picks come often enough to allow you to adjust to how everyone else is drafting.

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Find the spot where you feel like there's the biggest gap from one pick to the next and take the spot where you stay ahead of it.

 

Example... top 3 wr, AB, Julio and OBJ + top 4 rb AP, Gurley, DJ, Zeke. If you feel like those 7 are a cut Above the rest stay at 7 and you're assured 1 will be there. If you feel like Hopkins and AJ Green are close to that group and then there's a gap after that, take the 9th, and so on.

 

I prefer to be as late as possible but where I know I'm guaranteed to get one of "my" guys. Moving to the end of a tier gives you the best chance of snagging a 2nd tier 1 guy who falls, or at worst gives you a better choice of the next tier.

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Find the spot where you feel like there's the biggest gap from one pick to the next and take the spot where you stay ahead of it.

Example... top 3 wr, AB, Julio and OBJ + top 4 rb AP, Gurley, DJ, Zeke. If you feel like those 7 are a cut Above the rest stay at 7 and you're assured 1 will be there. If you feel like Hopkins and AJ Green are close to that group and then there's a gap after that, take the 9th, and so on.

I prefer to be as late as possible but where I know I'm guaranteed to get one of "my" guys. Moving to the end of a tier gives you the best chance of snagging a 2nd tier 1 guy who falls, or at worst gives you a better choice of the next tier.

Wow, really well thought out and good advice!

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Yea there's a pretty big fall off after 6, unless you are high on Zeke or Miller as well. If you like Zeke or Miller, since the first 6 are relatively unanimous, significantly more than the next tier of players then stay put otherwise move down. Just compare potential outcomes with their ADP.

 

At 7 you have picks: 7, 18, 31, 42 in the first four rounds. So cross match that with your own tier lists and see if it would give you the most value compared to another position.

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