Quintessential RB Start/Bench Decision, Epilogue

[Coasters]

Thanks to everyone who replied to my original post

 

Quintessential RB Start/Bench Decision

Only FFL Scholars Need Reply

Posted 09/17/05, 5:59 PM

 

At issue is the landmark FF question, "Can you start a backup RB in the RB2 hole and win?"

 

The principals in my personal lineup dilemma are would-be STUD RB Dom Davis (versus PGH) and of course backup RB Larry Johnson (at OAK).

 

I got twelve replies - 7 for would-be STUD RB DD and 5 for backup RB LJ.

 

The most intriguing replies were from

 

(1) SaintsFanUnfortunately - "Instead of typing that book you just could have asked "DD or LJ?"...DD will get 20-25 touches, LJ 10-14. Got to go with DD. The Chiefs say they won't penalize LJ for getting arrested this week for beating up his girlfriend, but that remains to be seen..."

 

Dear SFU: I wrote a "book" with an arguably catchy Topic Title and Description to get Views (got 122) and Replies (got 12). Duh. I see that you're on the "It's all about the touches" bandwagon. Did you see last week's touches? DD was 16 for 57 while LJ was 10 for 121, and 2 TDs. Do you see any similarities between the BUF (2nd last year) and PGH (1st last year) defenses? BUF held HOU to about 120 yards last week. In their only only previous meeting, PGH held HOU to about 40. Note that NFL teams rarely take action against players at this stage of off-field cases, especially ones that are as weak as this one. As expected, the Chiefs aren't doing anything about this pile of crap, LJ's current 2-year probation notwithstanding.

 

(2) Bonedaddies - "1st off, it appears that you have way too much knowledge to have "Rookie" by all of your posts....you may want to have them change that...Against the Raiders he (LJ) can do what DD will do against thhe Steelers with Half the touches..."

 

Dear Bonedaddies: Thanks for the props. I like the "Rookie" cover. It helps me keep a low profile. Most people tell me that I need to get a life. I simply tell them, "Why?I love this one (365/24 following my favorite NFL team and reading everything there is to read on FF). But more importantly, thanks for confirming my thoughts on the relative nature of touches.

 

In a separate thread on the same (now infamous) start/bench question, the incomparable Hugh (sorry Hugh, I don't know who you are 'cause I'm not a regular Forum guy, but you sure have one helluva following) wrote:

 

"Davis. He's going to be more involved in the offense this week, both running and catching. I think, even with the tough matchup, he should have a nice day. I'm not a fan of starting a back that is only going to get 10 touches."

 

There you have it! Right to the heart of the matter. Who is "a fan of starting a back that is only going to get 10 touches?" More precisely, is it time to cross that line?

 

Here's a summary of some FF Sites predictions for RB DD and backup RB LJ:

 

The Huddle (from David Dorey, the greatest FF writer and prognosticator of all time and the resaon that I subscribe to The Huddle and only The Huddle) - DD 60/40, LJ 40(1)/20

Free FF Site #1: DD 12.3 pts, LJ 12.2 pts

Free FF Site #2: DD 13.10 pts, LJ 12.26 pts

Free FF Site #3: DD 60(1)/3/20, LJ 70(1)/2/20

Free FF Site #4: DD 70/4/35, LJ 35/2/10

Free FF Site #5: DD 50/5/40, LJ 60(1)

 

So then, it's DD by a nose. Not! To me, it's a no-brainer.

 

Take a look at the over/unders (54 to was 38, now Off).

Take a look at the respective opposing defenses (OAK-Yikes! and PGH-Ouch!).

Take a look at the respective offenses (HOU-Have you looked into Carr's eyes lately? and KC-Yeah baby!).

Take a look at the history of the respective series (shootouts versus wipeout with HOU winning 24-6 on three D TDs).

Take a look at the trends (HOU stinks/PGH crushes, KC rocks, OAK wheezes).

 

The time has come to start a backup RB at the RB2 hole over a would-be STUD and WIN!

 

Coasters

 

PS: Feel absolutely free to crucify me come Sunday night. Fat chance.

[ts]

Well, I missed the original post but...

 

"At issue is the landmark FF question, "Can you start a backup RB in the RB2 hole and win?"

 

...I guess if you mean this week, considering only DD & LJ in the equation, I guess the answer could be yes ... if you mean for the entire season, I'd be more skeptical. Of course, if LJ finishes the year with 1600 yards & 16 TDs on 160 carries, and you start him on your FF team all year, you'll have made the right choice.

 

Nonetheless, since it's only week #2, and given DD's 2-year history of performing well for HOU teams that were just about as bad as this year's edition, I'd be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt & start him over LJ this week, despite the matchups.

[Grits and Shins]

Since I'm not an FFL Scholar I guess I'm not eligible to reply