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Best IDPs during the Playoff stretch

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Anyone have any thoughts on what IDPs DL, DB, LB are in line to have monster games based on matchups during the playoff weeks 14- 16?

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Anyone have any thoughts on what IDPs DL, DB, LB are in line to have monster games based on matchups during the playoff weeks 14- 16?

LB's going against someone getting atleast 20 carries a game... a.k.a. Murray. DB's going against fillin QB's from Houston and Chicago? Linemen facing the Colts,Bears and Chiefs. You can find nice info here: http://www.idpguru.com/2011/10/2011-rest-o...p-rankings.html

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LB's going against someone getting atleast 20 carries a game... a.k.a. Murray. DB's going against fillin QB's from Houston and Chicago? Linemen facing the Colts,Bears and Chiefs. You can find nice info here:

While your premise might be on point the teams you are pointing out aren't exactly on point:

 

Points allowed to DLs

Team.......Season Rank......last 3 weeks

Colts.......7.............................9

Bears......10..........................10

Chiefs....18...........................17

Top 5 for the season: 1. Pitt 2.NYG 3. HOU. 4. Den 5. Stl

Top 5 last 3 weeks. 1. NYJ, 2. Hou 3. Sea 4. Jax 5. Pit

 

Points allowed to DBs

Team..........Season Rank......last 3 weeks

Hou...........18...............................30

Chi..............28..............................31

Top 5 for season: NOS, SDC, PHI, NEP, OAK

Top 5 last 3 weeks DET, CIN, BUF, DAL, SDC

 

 

Last 3 weeks = 9,10 & 11(done by average)...week 12 info not updated yet.

 

Also forgive me if I don't give any credit to that website since that writer "stole" my stars rating format and started using it after week 2 or 3(not sure exactly what week but after the season started)

 

as far as LBs and facing them against a "player" that gets 20+ carries a game doesn't make 100% sense....doesn't matter if a team has 3 RBs that each get 10 carries a game..that is 30 carries...but fwiw here is what the average rushes by team are....not including team name on purpose:

22.4

22.4

22.7

22.7

23

23.5

24.9

24.9

25.4

25.6

25.7

25.7

25.8

26.2

26.2

26.3

26.3

26.5

26.8

26.9

26.9

27.6

28

28.2

29.1

29.5

29.6

31.4

31.5

31.9

32.5

35.7

 

Top 5 in pts to LBs(average rushing attempts)

1. Rams (24.9)

2. Jets (26.9)

3. Skins (22.7)

4. SDC (25.7)

5. Balt (24.9)

 

Top 5 teams in rushing attempts (rank in avg points to LBs)

1.Hou (16)

2.Oak (11)

3. Jax (19)

4.SF (28)

5.Den (17)

Edited by keggerz

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Thank you kegger for that, sorry for listing that site on the huddle forum but it's really the only place I've found information and reasoning for why the IDP Guru's rank the Individual Defensive Players accurate enough to warrant consideration. For free anyway. Linemen against Seattle makes sense, and just heard on SNF about the Steelers being rushed the most so that makes sense. DB's I like to use are with the strong safety position, and teams like Buffalo, Denver, and the Titans can be quite good although the position is a flexible one to say the least. LB's against Cedric Benson did really well last season, so I just was thinking over the weekend that using a LB against a team that's going to give their runner 20-30 carries a game should do well.

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Thank you kegger for that, sorry for listing that site on the huddle forum but it's really the only place I've found information and reasoning for why the IDP Guru's rank the Individual Defensive Players accurate enough to warrant consideration. For free anyway. Linemen against Seattle makes sense, and just heard on SNF about the Steelers being rushed the most so that makes sense. DB's I like to use are with the strong safety position, and teams like Buffalo, Denver, and the Titans can be quite good although the position is a flexible one to say the least. LB's against Cedric Benson did really well last season, so I just was thinking over the weekend that using a LB against a team that's going to give their runner 20-30 carries a game should do well.

I just finished editing my response above...adds some clarity I think...anyway..nothing wrong with free sites or using other sites...I can just safely say that I am not enthralled with that site (particular writer actually)....and fwiw, I wish our IDP content was free...or at least free to start the season so ppl could see what we are putting out....not sure if you are a subscriber or not but here are a few excerpts from earlier this year so you can see what you get in the IDP Game Breakdowns....can't really post the star ratings because the format will be all fubar'd

 

 

 

Linebacker: The Seahawks are averaging 37 rushing attempts over their last three games. Yet over that span of time the Seahawks rank just 18th in fantasy points allowed to opposing LBs. Outside of the 26 point game the Seahawks gave up to James Laurinaitis last week they haven't given up any big games, but they have given up enough double digit games for me to feel good about giving London Fletcher and Perry Riley 3-star ratings. Upside for the duo is probably in the neighborhood of 15 points but their floor is probably not much off that, in the 11-12 point range. I have rookie OLB Ryan Kerrigan rated as a 3-star play based on his non-stop motor and how he has been producing over much of the season. His low score on the year is a 3 point game in week 7, outside of that he has two 7 point games and then everything else is in double digits. Not bad production from a rush OLB that you can use as a LB3.

 

Linebacker: If you think that a lack of rushing attempts always limits opposing LBs you would be sadly mistaken. Somehow the Redskins rank 3rd in fantasy points allowed to LBs, and since week 7 they rank #1. What makes that hard to believe is the Redskins lack of an effective running game. Since they rank #1 since week 7 let's just take a look at some numbers from that time span. For starters they have run the ball a total of 90 times for 291 yards, and a 3.23 YPC average. That equates to just an average of 18 rushing attempts/game. Sometimes, instead of saying, "how the heck can they rank #1 when they run the ball so little", you just have to look at the results and believe in them. These LBs have all had very productive games against the Redskins during this time span, James Anderson (29 pts), Dan Connor (18 pts), Nick Barnett (16.5 pts), NaVorro Bowman (20 pts), Patrick Willis (29 pts), Karlos Dansby (27 pts), and Sean Lee and his club fist (16 pts). Simply put, David Hawthorne is in line to have a very big week this week. Same goes for Leroy Hill, I don't expect the duo to each put up 20+ point games like the 49ers duo did, but Hill should still be a solid play.

 

Secondary: Kam Chancellor owners don't get to be as giddy about his matchup this week the way that Hawthorne owners do. Sadly, the Redskins rank just 14th in fantasy points allowed to DBs. Now that isn't horrible, but it isn't anywhere close to the matchup for the Seahawks LBs. Chancellor should at least be able to hit the 10-12 point range this week. Upside wise only two DBs have put up more than 20 points against the Redskins, George Wilson scored 21 points in week 8, and Gerald Sensabaugh posted 22 in week 11. Chancellor does have the ability to be the 3rd to hit the 20 point plateau, just don't expect it, and look at it as icing on the cake if he does get there. Earl Thomas is coming off an 8 point effort last week, his second single digit game of the season, and first since week 3. I feel pretty confident that both Chancellor and Thomas bounce back for their owners this week.

 

Defensive Line: I said that I had a love/hate feeling about the Raiders matchup against the Broncos last week. That was because I couldn't figure out who should have been the 4 or 5-star play. As it played out only Lamarr Houston was worthy of a start, posting 13 fantasy points, his best output of the season. I can understand Desmond Bryant and Jarvis Moss not meeting expectations, but with the Broncos running the ball 38 times, it is hard to stomach the bad week that both Tommy Kelly and Richard Seymour had. Unfortunately, sometimes things just don't play out like they seem they will. This week against a Chargers team that ranks 21st in points to DL I think it is best to leave each and every Raiders DL on the bench this week. That is, unless you are in a DT mandatory league. In those leagues I am willing to give Kelly and Seymour a reprieve, especially considering the Chargers are 2nd in the NFL with 106 rushes right up the middle.

 

Secondary: The Falcons are giving up 52 points/game to opposing DBs, that is just above the league average of 50.10 PPG. Not rating any of the Lions secondary better than a 2-star play is probably being a bit conservative, but I really see a run heavy attack this week that will likely limit the production of the secondary. Add to it that the Lions DBs have been inconsistent and it is easy to see why they all get 2-stars. Amari Spievey has yet to post back to back double digit games, Louis Delmas and Chris Houston have done it just once. Only Eric Wright has posted double digits in three consecutive games, but he hasn't hit double digits since week 3. I hope that helps to pain the picture a bit better.
Edited by keggerz

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Secondary: I know I pretty much said it last week but I think it bears repeating, the Texans secondary doesn't do anything for me, fantasy wise, that is. NFL wise I think it is safe to say that the Texans are in much better shape than they were last year. Across the board I gave the Texans secondary 1 and 2-star ratings. Those ratings have much less to do with their matchup as it does how inconsistent they have been. Jason Allen is their top scorer, ranking 71st and that is only because he had two monster games while starting for an injured Kareem Jackson. Danieal Manning is next, ranking 73rd, he is coming off of his best performance of the season (20pts), but his up and down makes him a very risky play in my eyes. He has three double digit performances (10, 10 & 20) and three single digit performances (4, 9 & 6), hopefully that helps you to see and understand my stance better.

 

Secondary: Another key number for Colts defenders is 60, no not E:60 from ESPN, rather the 60 tackle opportunities they are facing on a weekly basis. Yes, that ranks 1st in the NFL, and it is why Antoine Bethea has also been such a strong fantasy producer this year. This week, like Angerer, I see Bethea as a very strong fantasy play. Outside of Bethea, I would have a hard time relying on any other Colts DB. Jerraud Powers and David Caldwell have each had nice games but they have had far more poor games, and are therefore far to risky to be in fantasy lineups. Since taking over at CB for Jacob Lacey, Kevin Thomas has put up back to back double digit games, so if you were going to pick a sleeper of the bunch it would be him.

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I say plan your sacks, especially in a league such as mine where sacks pay off. A good guy to plan to have for week 16 would probably be Lamar Woodley, who should be at full health by then and was on a tear before going out with a hamstring injury. He's probably available on a lot of waiver wires currently. Pitt faces St. Louis that week, and St. Louis is on top of the league as far as sacks given up this year.

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I say plan your sacks, especially in a league such as mine where sacks pay off. A good guy to plan to have for week 16 would probably be Lamar Woodley, who should be at full health by then and was on a tear before going out with a hamstring injury. He's probably available on a lot of waiver wires currently. Pitt faces St. Louis that week, and St. Louis is on top of the league as far as sacks given up this year.

knowing your scoring system is always key

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Anyone have any thoughts on what IDPs DL, DB, LB are in line to have monster games based on matchups during the playoff weeks 14- 16?

 

Unfortunately, IDP scoring weighed against roster requirements and start requirements are key to really give any solid advice. Scoring is all over the map and greatly determines which type of players are to be targeted.

 

The league I manage is a hard cap dynasty contract league with a very balanced scoring system between positions. Rather than spend a ton of time on our system I would say that in most systems, tackles are more important as they are easier to measure and predict. Sacks are very difficult outside of a few to gauge.

 

A couple of basics.

 

DB's: Corners; Target players that are not of the shutdown variety as a rule. Getting the worst corner on a team that is a 3 down player is better then a shut down as more targets thus more tackle opportunities exist.

 

SS's still rule the day for tackles at the DB position. If a player like George Wilson is out there he could be great down the stretch but he is injured so buyer beware. Scheme is very important and a weak front 7 adds some value here.

 

LB's: In our scoring I rate them like this. MLB 4/3, inside weak side LB's in 3/4 schemes, Weakside in 4/3, OLB 3/4 and SSLB's in 4/3 schemes are players I avoid but very close. Sacks are nice but I will take 14-17 consistent points all day over a D. Ware type who are feast or famine. Ware is the best 3/4 LB in the business but simply too inconsistent in balanced scoring formats.

 

DE/DT. I avoid any player in a 3/4 scheme always with two exceptions ( JJ Watt (HOU) and Justin Smith (SF). These two run in hybrid schemes and circle back to tackles on multiple stunts so are surprisingly consistent.

 

3 Down players are a must. DT's are ok if they are named Ngata as they will get tackles in a hybrid system. Players like Allen won't be there but two DE's that the average player may overlook are Avril with the Lions and Carter with the Pats. Neither are hardly ever double teamed.

 

My Lb's are D. Jackson, D. Johnson, Laurinaitis, S Lee.

MY DE's are Umenyiora, Van Den Bosch, Clemons, Dunlop, Houston. (could be better but this is a 14 teamer cap league)

My DB's are G. Wilson, Godfrey, S. Jones...(Trying to get Harper for the playoffs)

 

McCourty is a great target BTW.

 

Not sure this helps without knowing your scoring but those are a few names to consider. We start 2/2/2 with a flex. Always a LB flex for me if possible.

 

I am new here and have always done my research but from what I have read so far, this looks like a great site with several good writers that know their stuff so I am glad I joined and paid the price.

 

IDP Guru is ok but they are really basic. That said, if you are not really into research or learning schemes they may be of some help for simple leagues.

 

In the end it always depends on scoring from tackle, sacks, int's, pass defensed, FF, and Fumble Recoveries differentials by position.

 

Just to note, we score LB, DE/DT, & DB's differently as we have brought serious scoring balance over the years to positions in our league so my perspective may be different.

 

Good Luck.

 

PS, If all else fails, look for the defender with the green dot on his helmet! :wacko:

Edited by Ice1

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Unfortunately, IDP scoring weighed against roster requirements and start requirements are key to really give any solid advice. Scoring is all over the map and greatly determines which type of players are to be targeted.

 

The league I manage is a hard cap dynasty contract league with a very balanced scoring system between positions. Rather than spend a ton of time on our system I would say that in most systems, tackles are more important as they are easier to measure and predict. Sacks are very difficult outside of a few to gauge.

 

A couple of basics.

 

DB's: Corners; Target players that are not of the shutdown variety as a rule. Getting the worst corner on a team that is a 3 down player is better then a shut down as more targets thus more tackle opportunities exist.

 

SS's still rule the day for tackles at the DB position. If a player like George Wilson is out there he could be great down the stretch but he is injured so buyer beware. Scheme is very important and a weak front 7 adds some value here.

 

LB's: In our scoring I rate them like this. MLB 4/3, inside weak side LB's in 3/4 schemes, Will in 4/3, OLB 3/4 and SSLB's in 4/3 schemes are players I avoid but very close. Sacks are nice but I will take 14-17 consistent points all day over a D. Ware type who are feast or famine. Ware is the best 3/4 LB in the business but simply too inconsistent in balanced scoring formats.

 

DE/DT. I avoid any player in a 3/4 scheme always with two exceptions ( JJ Watt (HOU) and Justin Smith (SF). These two run in hybrid schemes and circle back to tackles on multiple stunts so are surprisingly consistent.

 

3 Down players are a must. DT's are ok if they are named Ngata as they will get tackles. Players like Allen won't be there but two DE's that the average player may overlook are Avril with the Lions and Carter with the Pats. Neither are hardly every double team.

 

My Lb's are D. Jackson, D. Johnson, Laurinaitis, S Lee.

MY DE's are Umenyiora, Van Den Bosch, Clemons, Dunlop, Houston. (could be better but this is a 14 teamer cap league)

My DB's are G. Wilson, Godfrey, S. Jones...(Trying to get Harper for the playoffs)

 

McCourty is a great target BTW.

 

Not sure this helps without knowing your scoring but those are a few names to consider. We start 2/2/2 with a flex. Always a LB flex for me if possible.

 

I am new here and have always done my research but from what I have read so far, this looks like a great site with several good writers that know their stuff so I am glad I joined and paid the price.

 

IDP Guru is ok but they are really basic. That said, if you are not really into research or learning schemes they may be of some help for simple leagues.

 

In the end it always depends on scoring from tackle, sacks, int's, pass defensed, FF, and Fumble Recoveries differentials by position.

 

Just to note, we score LB, DE/DT, & DB's differently as we have brought serious scoring balance over the years to positions in our league so my perspective may be different.

 

Good Luck.

 

PS, If all else fails, look for the defender with the green dot on his helmet! :wacko:

Very nice post, welcome to the forum and glad to see you value the content...hope you can continue to post to help inject some life into the forum.

 

Good luck in your leagues.

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