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Homer Projections


i_am_the_swammi
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About a decade or two ago, Rajn ( I think) alerted us all in preseason to a WR sleeper by the name of Marques Colston who was making some serious noise in training camp as a late-round draft pick. Some of us took notice and added him in the latter rounds of our drafts as a stash-and-see kind of player, who obviously paid tremendous dividends. It would be great to see an annual thread like that with homer insight into guys that may outperform their current ADP. So here goes:

 

Philadelphia Eagles: TE Zach Ertz.He has been somewhat of an enigma these past several years, as he has long been touted as someone with break-out potential that has just not fulfilled  (Eric Ebron'ish, perhaps). But for those of us close to the team, there have been several reasons for his lack of TE1 production: (1) spotty QB play, (2) injuries to the OL that had forced the Eagles to play Brent Celek more because he was better in pass protection, and (3) Ertz not performing when given the chance.

 

This year, two of those three factors have disappeared. Wentz will be in his second year, and there should be a continuation of the rapport they developed in 2016. Even more appealing is the fact that the Eagles just traded Jordan Matthews to the Bills, who had traditionally been Wentz's safety blanket. With newcomers Jeffrey and Smith still learning the system, and the enigma Agholar still not "the guy", Wentz should be seeking out his pass-catching TE on a regular basis. In addition, the OL is back and healthy, with RT Lane Johnson expected to play a full season barring any more PED suspensions, Jason Peters still solid at LT, and a returning interior line that many think is part of a top-5 unit in the NFL. This continuity should allow the Eagles to line-up Ertz the way they have always wished: in a Gronk-like fashion to take advantage of slow-footed LBs that can be exploited. Everything is set up for him to have his best campaign to date: Ertz just has to stay healthy and catch the football.

 

He will finally finish as a top-10 TE this season, with top-5 potential.

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Total shot in the dark. But all I have right now is Rod Smith rb. At least while Zeke is gone.

McFadden hasn't exactly been a picture of durability in his career, I don't believe the coaches are fond of Alfred Morris and all reports on Smith have been great. See how much run he gets in the preseason, game 3 especially

 

Also wr Ryan Switzer in deep leagues, especially leagues with return pts

 

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15 hours ago, i_am_the_swammi said:

 

About a decade or two ago, Rajn ( I think) alerted us all in preseason to a WR sleeper by the name of Marques Colston who was making some serious noise in training camp as a late-round draft pick. Some of us took notice and added him in the latter rounds of our drafts as a stash-and-see kind of player, who obviously paid tremendous dividends.

 

 

Rajn alerted us to Michael Thomas on August 12th of last year, too:  "Michael Thomas has been outstanding for the Saints and many are saying he will be the top WR this year for the team."

 

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I picked up Marques Colston his rookie year, because he was listed as a Tight End but was being utilized as a receiver in Saints offense.  He gave a great advantage at the TE slot on my fantasy team.  As season went on his TE slot was changed to WR.  He had a run of 8 games that I've never seen out of a rookie from a small school, Hofstra, since.  

 

I think Donte Moncrief could be special.  As far as a Tight End, Ertz has a great opportunity for the reasons given above by The Swammi.

 

 

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On 8/12/2017 at 8:39 PM, i_am_the_swammi said:

 

He will finally finish as a top-10 TE this season, with top-5 potential.

 

 

Ertz finished as the 6th highest scoring tight end last year even with missing 2 games.  He was the 3rd highest scoring tight end in points per game played (less than a point per game fewer than leader Jordan Reed).  Even when he came back from injury in week 5, he put together a string of 4 extremely mediocre games.  So through week 8 of last year he was the 34th highest scoring tight end with a measly 30.0 points scored.  Then he and Wentz started connecting.  From week 9 through week 17, Ertz was the number 1 scoring tight end with 20 points more than 2nd place.  His stats were a bit skewed because of a 38.9 point total in week 17.  But even taking away his monster week 17, he was still the 2nd highest scoring tight end in weeks 9 through 16.

 

I think it's safe to say Ertz has already arrived.  I think a lot of people thought Ertz had a bad year because of how poorly he did in the first half of the season.  Ertz really had an amazing year considering that Wentz was a first year quarterback who only threw 16 touchdowns and 3,782 yards.  With Wentz surely improving in his 2nd year, Ertz can easily be the number 1 tight end in the NFL.  His adp of 97.37 puts him as the 10th highest drafted tight end.  With players like Ertz and Marty B available in rounds 7-8, anyone who uses a high draft pick on a tight end is foolhardy.

 

Edited by michaelredd9
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Browns

Matthew Dayes - RB he was the second to last pick in the Draft and has shown good speed and vision. If Crowell goes down, he's probably gonna step in

Jordan Leslie - WR 1st year player out of Brigham Young that's been catching everything thrown his way and getting separation at the line.

I wouldn't draft these guys but monitor them...

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4 hours ago, loaf said:

Browns

Matthew Dayes - RB he was the second to last pick in the Draft and has shown good speed and vision. If Crowell goes down, he's probably gonna step in

Jordan Leslie - WR 1st year player out of Brigham Young that's been catching everything thrown his way and getting separation at the line.

I wouldn't draft these guys but monitor them...

 

I was just coming to post Matt Dayes and you beat me to it!

If Duke Johnson plays out wide all year he could be a bargain at his ADP

Keep and eye on Kareem Hunt in KC

Edited by jamesplante11
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