DEF Quandary

[fognugen]

I'm in a must win situation to make it into the playoffs. I have both Atl and Car at DEF, and they are playing eachother this weekend. Is their an upside to either one?

 

My other option would be to pick up MIN vs DET.

 

I'm thinking CAR, but only b/c it's a home game. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

[cdrudge]

What's your break down for scoring for your defense, in particular for allowed points?

 

I think Atl/Car game will be a higher scoring game, so Min may be the safer game purely on a points allowed standpoint. However, I think CAR has the better defense and is more consistant.

[fognugen]

Scoring looks like this:

 

Sack (1)

Interception (2)

Fumble Recovery (2)

Touchdown (6)

Safety (4)

Block Kick (4)

Points Allowed 0 points (15)

Points Allowed 1-6 points (9)

Points Allowed 7-13 points (4)

Points Allowed 14-20 points (1)

Points Allowed 21-27 points (0)

Points Allowed 28-34 points (-4)

Points Allowed 35+ points (-8)

 

So you do take a big hit in high scoring games. MIN would probably be a safer start.

 

Anyone else have any thoughts?

[coachharry]

I agree: go with Minnie, the Atl/Car game could get out of hand.

[Chump Men]

I've been watching Delhomme get sacked a lot lately. Atlanta's D is tough and I think they are a good start this week. Vic can excape the pressure and Delhomme is a sitting duck. Atlanta has had Carolina's number lately also.

 

I guess you know where I am going with this.

[cdrudge]

I've been watching Delhomme get sacked a lot lately.

He's been sacked 21 times this year, and 10 of which in the last 4 games. However 8 of those came at the hands of Chicago. Atlanta's defense is no Chicago.

 

I think ATL, CAR, and DET all are likely going to score less then 28. So from that standpoint, the probably downside difference isn't that great. ATL and CAR will probably both score at least twice, so you are looking either 0 or 1 points. So then it comes down to sacks and turnovers.

 

However, Detroit has a lot of instability right now. They can't decide if they want to play Harrington who sucks, or a gimpy Garcia. And they just fired their head coach. Minnesota's D has really turned the game around the last couple of weeks and I don't think this week will be any different.

 

All 3 teams have some degree of risk. I just think that MIN has the least amount of risk and a sizable payoff if the D keeps up what they've been doing the last couple of weeks.