Defense Heavy Scoring Advice

[Boaz]

Our league was designed with unusual (and probably accidental) emphasis on team defense (also somewhat pass heavy). The settings are listed below. My projections produce the points listed below for top 10 defense, RB and QB. You can see the incredible projected impact of the Ravens and Bears D. The league is 14 player serpentine -- I pick 7th, 22nd, 35th, 50th, etc. Relatively unsophisticated group may not realize the unusual emphasis on defense. How would you handle this? Is RB (1) RB/QB (2) RB/QB (3) Ravens (4) too agressive? I think I can cherry pick value receivers in the lower rounds.

 

QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, K, DEF, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN

 

Baltimore Ravens 504.0

Chicago Bears 478.0

Miami Dolphins 395.0

New England Patriots 400.0

San Diego Chargers 372.0

Denver Broncos 370.0

Green Bay Packers 348.0

Oakland Raiders 340.0

Arizona Cardinals 333.0

Dallas Cowboys 352.0

 

LaDainian Tomlinson 392

Steven Jackson 335

Shaun Alexander 261

Frank Gore 313

Joseph Addai 278

Larry Johnson 317

Brian Westbrook 275

Edgerrin James 220

Willie Parker 262

Laurence Maroney 236

 

Peyton Manning 432

Marc Bulger 369

Drew Brees 371

Carson Palmer 378

Vince Young 308

Tom Brady 372

Jon Kitna 334

Tony Romo 335

Matt Hasselbeck 311

Donovan McNabb 356

 

Sack (2)

Interception (3)

Fumble Recovery (3)

Touchdown (6)

Safety (6)

Block Kick (3)

Kickoff and Punt Return Touchdowns (6)

Points Allowed 0 points (20)

Points Allowed 1-6 points (18)

Points Allowed 7-13 points (15)

Points Allowed 14-20 points (12)

Points Allowed 21-27 points (8)

Points Allowed 28-34 points (3)

Points Allowed 35+ points (0)

 

Passing Yards (20 yards per point; 5 points at 350 yards)

Passing Touchdowns (6)

Interceptions (-2)

Sacks (-.5)

Rushing Yards (10 yards per point; 5 points at 100 yards)

Rushing Touchdowns (6)

Reception Yards (10 yards per point; 5 points at 100 yards)

Reception Touchdowns (6)

Return Touchdowns (6)

2-Point Conversions (2)

Fumbles Lost (-2)

Offensive Fumble Return TD (6)

Field Goals 0-19 Yards (3)

Field Goals 20-29 Yards (3)

Field Goals 30-39 Yards (3)

Field Goals 40-49 Yards (4)

Field Goals 50+ Yards (5)

Point After Attempt Made (1)

[detlef]

See my post in the thread about when to pull the trigger. Historical analysis proved, for me, that projections for Ds is likely second only to kickers in terms of predicting who will end up at the top of the heap.

 

Other positions may have small surprises as to who ends up being #1, but are pretty reliable as long as you look at it by top 5 in no particular order.

 

Take Chicago, for instance. Devan Hester set an NFL record for TD returns. It's not like he's the first great returner ever to play the game. Teams figured out a way to keep the Deon Sanders and Desmond Howards of the game somewhat in check, and they'll do the same with him.

 

I know that, right now, Balt and Chi seem like locks to finish top 5 in D. However, when I looked at how things panned out, I was surprised by how often seeming locks ended up being middle of the pack at best. TB and Balt D of the past were totally up and down from year to year in fantasy production despite the fact that their Ds were always great on the field.

 

Unless your league gives huge bonuses for low points allowed, Ds are just too much of a crap shoot to warrant a high pick

 

 

Edit to add:

Jeez, I should have read your scoring closer. You guys do give a lot of bonus for holding teams to low points. 12 pts for 14-20 is something that Chi and Balt should get you often enough to make them a nice pick. That could change everything.

Edited August 22, 2007 by detlef

[kicker77]

In my 9th year of FF, I can say with certainty that team DEF is the hardest position to predict (even including Ks). I will go out on a limb and say there will be at least one DEF this year which will outperform either Chi or Bal (might not be a big limb). I guess if you can land Chi/Bal in the 6th and you feel really good about your 1st 5 picks, then go for it. But in your league I might instead draft 3 DEFs then a K in the last 4 rounds. This would increase your odds of landing an unexpected high performing DEF (top 5).

 

I have always done well in leagues and have never ever drafted DEF or QBs in early rounds. Think about it, drafts are "won" in rounds 5-8 IMO, and that is when people start running on QBs and Defs. That is when you pick up value/sleeper RBs and WRs which later on will look like "brilliant" picks. The people who spend early picks on QBs and Defs usually end up hounding the Waivers all season long for quality RBs and WRs, which usually is a losing strategy because they are so scarce.