Gaining advantage from late draft sports

[grollmus]

Oops, that should say spots in the title.

 

I'm drafting 8th again this year in my 10 team league and I'm looking hard for ways to gain some advantage on those LT/SJAX/LJ owners.

 

Last year I drafted 8th and opened up with RB RB WR WR WR RB with my first 6 picks. I ended up squeeking into the playoffs and came in 4th in the league, but I actually scored to fewest points in the league.

 

I did a LAG analysis on my league and found that the average difference between top 3 WRs and 4 through 10 was only 23 points on the year. And it was only another 30 points to the 20th WR. QBs however had an 82pt difference on the average from the top 3 to 4-10.

 

My point is, I have read a lot that you should wait on QBs because you can get good ones late in the draft, and that's what I did last year. However, after doing the LAG and seeing that the top 3 QBs scored more than the top 3 RBs in my league, I can't help but want to open with RB RB QB this year. I finally saw a report on ESPN that said "don't take WRs early!" and I felt relieved, but this just seems to be the minority.

 

The point dropoff for QBs is much steeper than WRs in my league, so I can't understand taking a WR before a QB. Also, the 20th ranked defense scored the same points as the #1 WR, and the #1 defense scored almost as much as the #2 RB. Again, based on this analysis I will be looking at CHI / BAL defense in the 5th/6th round as I have never looked a DEF earlier than 10th.

 

I love this LAG article and it has really seemed to open up my eyes on my league, but I get confused because people still say to take WRs early and QBs late. Even the "Drafting from the Basement" article seemed to suggest taking RBs and WRs in the first 5 rounds. Can anyone back this up with evidence?

 

It seems to me that I have to break the standard mold of the draft and get some high scoring tier 1 slots earlier than I thought in the past to have a chance at winning in the league.

 

FYI, my league is standard performance scoring, non-ppr, 6pts for passing TDs.

 

Thanks guys!

Edited August 22, 2007 by grollmus

[cdj7k]

this is just MY opinion, may not be met with a lot of ageement, but i have played in a 10 team, 1 player keeper and drafted early and late. i have won the league 3 years in a row and i am going for 4.

 

i would for sure stick with the 2 rb's in the first 2 rounds from that position. in the 3rd round if gates is still there, grab him. he has widest margin of differential from to the rest. you gain points on everyone in that position if he delivers the norm. if he is not there i see where the tiers are for the receivers and if there is still a top 12 receiver on the board i would grab him.

 

i know i would then grab my qb in the 4th IF it is one of the top 6 to 7 QB's rated. if they are gone, wait and get him later. it is only a 10 team league and especially from the later draft position you need to get solid consistent scoring from the 3 guys who touch the ball the most, rb, rb, and qb. but if the big dogs are gone, i think the rest are about the same. grab a couple later, one fairly consistent scorer and one with some upside.

 

but because it is only 10 teams you can find receivers that will score pretty decent later. JMHO

[mhayhurst]

It sounds like you want someone to convince you to go RB,RB, QB. You know your league and it's scoring, drafting styles, etc.. better than anyone else that can give you advice. You're right the LAG report was a great article and everyones scoring system is different. I can't stress that enough...know your scoring system. That being said, in a lot of drafts of 10 teams, the top three qb's will be gone by the end of the 4th round anyway, so if qb's score more for you than I don't see why you wouldn't go RB,RB, QB and beat the others to the punch...just my thought.