PAC-10 BASKETBALL !

[theprofessor]

Pac-10 Preview

 

If you were a conference commissioner and were solely concerned about the prestige of your conference, would you rather have two very good teams or two very bad ones?

 

For most of the 2007 season, the Pac-10 featured two very bad teams in conference play. Oregon State and Arizona State finished the season with a combined 3-29 record against the other teams in the conference. Just based on that, it's not clear whether the top eight teams in the league were really good, or that the Terrible Two were actually bad. It really doesn't matter, though. In an era in which people are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with admitting teams to the NCAA Tournament that have a losing conference record, it's good business for a power conference to have four easy wins on the schedule.

 

This is important because in 2008, the Pac-10 figures to become the most dominant conference since Naismith drafted his 13 Original Rules, or so the story goes. Seven teams in the conference return at least 70% of their minutes, and the conference adds the two most sought after recruits in the high school class of '07, USC's O.J. Mayo and UCLA's Kevin Love. For good measure, the conference may also have a claim on the transfer with the most talent, Oregon State center C.J. Giles, who played a little over two seasons at Kansas. This is a conference that sent 60% of its membership to the NCAA Tournament last season.

 

However, it shouldn't be forgotten that the conference's sixth-place team, Stanford, had a 10-8 conference record. That's much less likely to happen this season. For one thing, it would be a shock if Arizona State didn't improve on its two-win total of a season ago. They were severely unlucky to have such a poor record last season, and there's every reason to believe they will better this season. Oregon State isn't exactly a program on the rise, but with Giles on the floor, they should get more chances to win games, especially in Corvallis.

 

In addition, both Washington and Cal, the seventh- and eighth-place teams in the conference, expect to be better in '08 as well. Wins are finite within a conference, and the bottom of the conference winning more often in '08 means that the top of the conference must win less. The team most likely to exempt themselves from such a predicament is UCLA. The Bruins will attempt to make it three consecutive trips to the Final Four, and they suffer only the loss of shooting guard and defensive stalwart Arron Afflalo from last year's team. However, in adding the big-man Love, they add offensive presence to a front line that over the past two seasons has had very little.

 

The remaining five teams are feeling pretty good about a return to the postseason, but chances are at least one of them won't make it back to the NCAA's big party, if only because a seventh-place finish in the conference could mean a 7-11 conference record, which doesn't look good in the committee's eyes. With the Huskies and Bears looking to jump into the top six, it's more than possible that one team could be surprisingly headed to the NIT in March.

 

Among those five, USC loses the most talent, including three starters, but gains the most in O.J. Mayo, who most experts believe will be the first pick in the 2008 NBA Draft. Washington State won 13 conference games last season, their most since 1983, so regressing to the mean, their mean, might be an issue. But there's little to suggest that the Cougars' season was a fluke. Stanford, too, was a surprise last season, thanks to the arrival of the Lopez twins and the stunning improvement of Lawrence Hill. Arizona made the tournament despite a tumultuous season. Like USC, they lose three starters, but they may have the best offensive weapon in the conference in sophomore Chase Budinger. Finally, Oregon loses only one starter off of last season's Eilte Eight squad, but that player, point guard Aaron Brooks, was far and away their most valuable.

 

For those who like to rank conferences, there will be plenty of reason to place the Pac-10 atop the list. Not to be overlooked is the stability of the league. There were no coaching changes in the offseason, and save for Oregon State, each team is feeling good about its future.

 

The top and bottom of the Pac-10 are pretty well etched in stone. UCLA should win the league and Oregon State should be at the bottom. How the other eight teams line up is going to be fun to watch. If a team is going to challenge UCLA at the top, it will be Stanford, who returns more of its roster than any other team with both Hill and the Lopez twins among that group.

 

 

2007 Pythag % Returning 2008

Team Wins Minutes Prediction

UCLA 14.4 81.4 14-4

Stanford 10.3 82.0 12-6

Washington St. 12.9 80.5 11-7

Arizona 11.4 48.9 10-8

USC 11.3 48.4 9-9

Washington 7.9 71.1 9-9

California 5.7 79.5 8-10

Oregon 9.5 77.4 8-10

Arizona State 4.4 78.8 6-12

Oregon State 2.8 46.2 3-13

 

ARIZONA

 

What Arizona did well: Win on the road.

 

I think people generally associate winning on the road with toughness. You go into a hostile environment and get a win, and you must possess some degree of mental fortitude, right? It is sort of interesting, then, that Arizona was one of the best road teams in the country, because I don't recall anyone describing the Wildcats as tough. They went 6-3 in Pac-10 play away from Tucson, but just 5-4 at home. Just 18 other teams won the majority of their conference games away from home, and none of them resided in power conferences. It's an interesting distinction for a team that was labeled as soft and selfish.

 

However, a closer look at their performance reveals that Arizona outscored opponents by a total of 60 points in their nine home games and just 16 on the road, so they were pretty fortunate to win two-thirds of their road games.

 

Pardon the tangent, but there are a few notable items to mention regarding road/home splits across the country.

 

 

Home teams won 62.4% of their games in conference play.

Even though 19 teams had better road records, based on points scored and allowed just nine teams deserved to have a better road record.

The SWAC's Texas Southern was the only team to win three more conference games on the road than they won at home. They also had the biggest scoring differential split, outscoring road opponents.

Louisiana Tech was the biggest overachiever at home, outscoring home opponents by 7.8 points per game and being outscored by 13.8 ppg on the road. Louisiana Tech also happens to host some of the longest conference road trips in the nation.

Air Force and Wyoming ranked 3rd and 5th, respectively, in conference home-court advantage. They play at the two highest (in terms of elevation) courts in the nation.

 

Home-court advantage is due to some combination of crowd, travel and altitude. It wouldn't surprise me if that's not the order of importance. There's a lot more research to be done in that area, but one thing is known: there's a heck of a lot of noise in the data. Even over an 18-game conference schedule, the home court can appear to be a disadvantage for a few teams. In the case of Arizona, it's very unlikely they'll win six Pac-10 games on the road again in '08, so they better protect the McKale Center a little better.

 

What we learned in 2007: You have to play some defense to be an elite team.

 

This isn't necessarily headline material, but it is amazing how every season there is a team or two that possesses an unstoppable offense and yet ends their season early. (Note that the same applies to the other side of the ball: a stellar defense on its own does not a title contender make.) The 'Zona offense did sputter occasionally over the second half of the season, but the defense was never what you'd call "good" for a nationally ranked team. In 14 of 18 conference games, the Wildcats allowed opponents to breach the magic threshold of a point per possession.

 

Let's break down the defense further to find out why the defense was broken down so frequently on the court. Arizona did a lot of things poorer than your average power conference team, but two factors tell the story: the Wildcats never forced turnovers (ranking fifth-worst in the nation with a 17.0% forced turnover percentage) and never sent opponents to the line (a nation's best opponents' free-throw rate). Not sending teams to the line is generally a good thing. Ohio State, North Carolina, Florida and Wisconsin all shared this trait and had Final Four-caliber defenses even without forcing a lot of turnovers. All four of those teams force shots that will be generally be of the low-percentage challenged variety. Arizona was different than those teams. Much different. In 2007, their defense was less based on positioning and more based on imitating a matador. They didn't have an inside presence on defense and they hardly ever forced a turnover. Opponents got lots of shots on the Wildcats and made far too many of them. Arizona's defensive eFG% was 50.9. That's not terrible; it was 138th-worst nationally, and 24th-worst out of 73 power conference teams when only considering regular-season conference play. But given the sheer volume of shots opponents were getting, that figure was too high for the offense to consistently overcome.

 

What's in store for 2008: While '07 was a train wreck, there are some reasons to believe that Arizona could surprise in 2008. First, it's not Lute Olson's style to put a defense on the court that refuses to force turnovers. In 2006, Arizona had the 10th-best turnover rate in the country. So Coach Olson is no Bo Ryan when it comes to position defense. He'll take advantage of an athletic ball-hawking backcourt when he has it. Unfortunately, Hassan Adams and Chris Rodgers are not coming back from the '06 team (although center Kirk Walters is). At the same time, Mustafa Shakur, Ivan Radenovic and Marcus Williams aren't coming back from the '07 team, and that's a good thing for the '08 defense. Only Shakur wasn't regarded as a defensive liability among the trio, and that's not necessarily a compliment about Shakur's D.

 

In a move that was a bit controversial, Olson moved 18-year assistant Jim Rosborough into an administrative role to make room for Kevin O'Neill. O'Neill was on Olson's bench in the late '80s when Arizona had a defense capable of leading them to a #1 ranking during both the '88 and '89 seasons. He is charged with being the architect of a defensive revival in Tucson. He'll get his first project in Chase Budinger. The 6'7" sophomore lived up to the hype during his freshman season. If there was a national all-freshman team (and how come there isn't?), Budinger likely would have been on it. He was an outstanding scorer, shooting 55.0% (eFG) while being the second-most frequent shooter on the team. With Williams gone, Budinger will be the offensive star of this team, and possibly the entire Pac-10. However, Budinger wasn't a good rebounder for his size, rarely got to the free-throw line and, most importantly, was a defensive liability. He was very similar to Marcus Williams, and another reason why Arizona was labeled soft.

 

Also returning is Jawann McClellan, who started at the two-guard; his backup, senior Daniel Dillon; and reserve center Jordan Hill, who was one of the best rebounders in the league in his limited minutes. Walters gets a second chance at his senior season after taking a medical redshirt in 2007. He blocked 8.9% of opponents' two-point attempts in '06, a rate that ranked 35th in D-I. Arizona brings in a freshman class of four, and shooting guard Jerryd Bayless and small forward Jamelle Horne are expected to make immediate contributions. Some new blood may be the best thing for this team, both in the coaching staff and on the floor.

 

ARIZONA STATE

 

What Arizona State did well: Give responsibility to freshmen.

 

Year One of the Herb Sendek era didn't go so well. In July, point guard Kevin Kruger became the most notable college hoopster to take advantage of a new and bizarre NCAA rule that allowed him to transfer and immediately play at UNLV last season. Three months before the season, wing Bryson Krueger was kicked off the team after being arrested on drug- and gun-possession charges. With that, Sendek unexpectedly lost his two best scorers in his first off-season in Tempe.

 

Was it really so bad? Sendek was fixing to overhaul ASU basketball with his Princeton-based offense, anyway. With Kruger and Krueger, the Sun Devils' would have been competitive in more games, but they wouldn't have been chasing down a postseason berth. Instead, Sendek was able to give playing time to his guys. Nearly half of ASU's available minutes were used by freshmen. Jerren Shipp, Christian Polk and Derek Glasser were usually starters (Sendek used a few different lineups during the season) and finished as three of the top four Sun Devils in playing time.

 

What we learned in 2007: The learning curve is never as steep as fans would like it to be.

 

Playing freshmen who wouldn't have cracked the starting lineup of most other Pac-10 teams has its price. For Arizona State, that price was not winning a conference game until mid-February and finishing with an 8-22 record. It's not like ASU wasn't competitive; just three of their losses by more than 11 points. Offensively, the Sun Devils were especially challenged. Only three power conference teams produced fewer points per possession during conference play than the 0.93 posted by Arizona State. The offensive ineptitude was punctuated by ASU's final win of the season, a 42-41 win at Cal. It was the lowest winning score in D-I by a team not named Northwestern. Even though they weren't getting blown out in most games, the lack of offense made it seem like a lot of games were out of reach even if the deficit never reached double digits in the second half.

 

What's in store for 2008: The good news is that Herb Sendek proved himself to be an excellent offensive coach during his time at NC State. The 2004 team ranked third nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. If the talent is there, Sendek's team will score with regularity, and talent is making its way to Tempe. It started with the three freshmen that played so much last season and continues with a nationally-ranked class of five freshmen that arrives this season. Among the freshmen, the most is expected of shooting guard James Harden. Harden was Glasser's teammate at Artesia HS in Lakewood, California, and will see immediate playing time. Sendek's offense relies on three-point shooting, and even though the Sun Devils took 39% of their shots from behind the line, second most in the conference, they made just 31.1%, which was second-worst in the Pac-10.

 

There's also anticipation over Eric Boateng, a 6'10" transfer from Duke who is eligible this season. Boateng played just 50 minutes during his freshman season at Duke, so even though he may get significant minutes, it's unlikely he'll provide much of an impact, especially since he'll be competing with junior Jeff Pendergraph for playing time. Pendergraph was the lone player on the '07 team who put up numbers that were worthy of celebration. He was one of the conference's best all-around rebounders, posting the second-best offensive rebounding percentage and sixth-best defensive rebounding percentage in the league.

 

While the freshmen were Sendek selections, the players inherited from the Rob Evans era were ill-suited for the new coach. One of two seniors gone from last season's squad is the enigmatic Serge Angounou. Angounou, more than any other player, had to adjust to the new offense. In 2006, 2% of his shots were from three-point range. Last season, that figure jumped to 58%. Amazingly, Angounou had the best rebounding year of his career, and was the equal of Pendergraph in that area. ASU also says good-bye to Allen Morrill, a wing who entered his senior season having never taken a three-pointer in 142 field goal attempts. Last season, 25 of his 100 shots were 3's.

 

Sendek does get back Antwi Atuahene, who will provide some minutes at both guard spots, but when he's on the floor, his value is in defense and distributing the ball. He hasn't demonstrated a jump shot in his two previous D-I seasons.

 

The sheer gravitational pull of the .500 mark means that this team is almost guaranteed to improve on its two wins in conference play. Over the '04, '05 and '06 seasons, 22 teams won two conference games. They averaged 4.9 conference wins the following season, and only one of the 22 failed to increase its win total. Unfortunately, there aren't many success stories in that group either. Only 2006 Jacksonville State won more than eight games, and they had the benefit of playing four more conference games than they did the previous season.

 

Every team in the Pac-10 has reason to believe it will be improved this season. A couple of those teams may be stretching the truth, but not by much. The point being that there aren't any easy wins in this conference. (OK, you really should beat Oregon State at home this season.) Fans of this team are going to have to endure a lot of losses for another season. But Sendek is putting enough pieces in place that this team's pre-season prospects won't be hopeless for too much longer.

 

CALIFORNIA

 

What California did well: Get assists from their point guards.

 

Ayinde Ubaka finished up a four-year career as starting point guard at Cal with what was his easily his best season. He posted his best numbers in two-point and three-point shooting while shooting more frequently than in his previous three seasons. He made the transition from being a pass-first, shoot-rarely point guard as a freshman and sophomore to a dynamic offensive threat in his senior season. He wasn't overly selfish, as he managed to assist on about a quarter of his teammates' baskets, also the highest mark of his career.

 

While Ubaka's career was admirable, his backup last season should end up having a better career. Casual fans, especially ones who don't live in the Pacific time zone, are probably not familiar with Jerome Randle. That will change this season. Randle was able to take some minutes from Ubaka last season, and in his time on the floor he assisted on more of his teammates' made baskets than did the starter. Randle wasn't as efficient as Ubaka on offense--he was only able to shoot 46.1% (eFG)--but an encouraging sign for Cal fans was that Randle was able to take 22.2% of his team's shots while on the court. It's encouraging because Randle is listed at 5'9", so you'd expect him to have some trouble getting off his shot. It's also encouraging because so few freshmen point guards shoot and distribute as much as Randle did. The list from the last three seasons includes only two other point guards from power conferences: Dominic James in 2006 and Javaris Crittenton in 2007.

 

What we learned in 2007: DeVon Hardin's value is disproportionately on defense.

 

One of the worst breaks for any Pac-10 team in 2007 was when Cal lost junior center DeVon Hardin to a broken foot 11 games into the season. There was some uncertainty surrounding what Hardin would do during his third season in Berkeley. Cal power forward Leon Powe had the highest usage of any Pac-10 player in 2006, then took off for the NBA. Hardin emerged alongside Powe as an elite defensive rebounder and a very good shot blocker. Hardin also quietly made advances in his offensive game. So with no Powe, what would Hardin's game look like in '07? In what little we saw of him, his defensive game was identical to his sophomore season. (In truth, his sophomore defensive rebounding and blocks numbers weren't a surprise; his rate stats were identical to his freshman season when he played more sparingly.) Offensively, Hardin picked up some of the slack that Powe left in terms of usage, but against a fairly weak non-conference schedule, he still couldn't get his shooting percentage to 50%.

 

It's clearer to compare Cal's performance in terms of points per possession against the Pac-10 in 2006 and 2007.

 

 

Year OE DE

2006 1.02 0.98

2007 1.03 1.12

 

 

Cal's offense was about as effective even without Powe, but the defense took a major hit, and was the reason for the Bears' drop in the conference standings in 2007. Powe was an effective defender, but no doubt, the absence of DeVon Hardin was at least equally to blame for Cal's poor defense in '07.

 

What's in store for 2008: If we could gaze into the crystal ball and know that Coach Ben Braun could count on the health of his roster this season, then there would be reason for optimism in Berkeley. They absolutely need their defense to improve significantly, and that's not going to happen without DeVon Hardin in the lineup for 25-30 minutes per game. With Hardin on the bench (or in the trainer's room), Cal would have to rely on either 7'0" Jordan Wilkes, who sat out last season with an eight minutes a game in '07 while being one of the most reluctant shooters in the conference.

 

With all the big bodies, the Bears won't have to do what they did last season: play 6'10" Ryan Anderson in the middle, where he struggled defensively. In a throwaway season, Anderson was one of the most productive freshmen in the nation, at least on the offensive end. However, his production dropped after Hardin went down. This was almost surely due to the coinciding increase in competition and improved scouting rather than the nominal change in position. Anderson continued to base much of his game on the perimeter during the conference season, but his three-point FG% dropped from 46 to 34% without Hardin in the lineup. Likewise, his two-point FG% dropped from 57 to 51%. Much is expected of Anderson this season, but there is plenty of room for improvement in his game.

 

Cal still lacks a dynamic scorer from the wing or shooting guard positions. They'll be looking at some combination of juniors Omar Wilkes and Theo Robertson, and sophomore Patrick Christopher, to get most of the minutes at that position, but none was a very effective scorer in 2006. Wilkes is the most dangerous, posting an eFG% of 55.3 while taking 19.9% of his team's shots. Robertson is recovering from leg surgery that has kept him off the court all summer. Cal also brings in Duke transfer Jamal Boykin, who will be eligible for the second semester. By virtue of his being a Duke transfer, expectations are too high for Boykin. He played 100 minutes during his Duke career, took 19 shots and committed 21 fouls.

 

Then there's the point position. Randle is a good darkhorse pick to beat out Darren Collison for the conference's assist title. He has a few things going for him. He has already demonstrated the ability to distribute. His two most prolific scoring teammates, Anderson and Hardin, have microscopic assist rates, indicating their singular focus of putting the ball in the hoop when they get it. Finally, Randle should get huge minutes. Two years ago, Ubaka played 37 minutes per game when he was the only point guard Braun trusted. Randle should be in a similar situation in 2008.

 

Randle's assist total will be a good indicator for Cal's success. If Anderson and Hardin can convert passes into baskets more often than they have previously in their career, Cal's offense will be one of the better ones in the conference, and Randle's assist total will soar. Combine that with a respectable defense, and the Bears season will have some intrigue into March.

 

OREGON

 

What Oregon did well: Get points from the perimeter.

 

As yet another example that there are many ways to be successful in college basketball, Ernie Kent finally perfected his offensive system at Oregon in 2007. Normally, offenses heavily dependent on the three-pointer are found in programs where signing five-star recruits is a pipe dream. Teams like West Virginia, Air Force, Vanderbilt and Butler have built solid offenses with a system where there are four or five above average long-range shooters on the court. Oregon, a team that sent one of its players (Aaron Brooks) to the pros via the first round of the NBA draft this past summer, and may do so again in 2008 (Malik Hairston), provided D-I with an offense that relied on the three-pointer more than any team this side of Morgantown.

 

What we learned in 2007: You do need some bench to survive.

 

Here was the line for the Oregon bench in an 85-77 loss to Florida in the Midwest Regional Final.

 

 

PT 2PM-A 3PM-A FTM-A A Stl Blk OR/DR PF Pts

27:33 1-2 1-2 1-2 1 1 1 1/0 10 6

 

 

If this was an individual player, we would probably wonder what he was doing getting so much playing time. (I know. With 10 personal fouls, he wouldn't be getting that much playing time.) That's the point: there may have been no other team in the nation that could produce the gap in production between the starters and the bench that Oregon did. I'm not suggesting that had Florida and Oregon traded benches the outcome would have been any different. But Oregon did have one of the least productive benches in major college basketball. Their top-scoring reserve during conference play was Chamberlain Oguchi, who managed just 4.3 ppg in about 16 mpg. Oguchi, by the way, transferred to Illinois State in the offseason.

 

Oregon's starting lineup went toe-to-toe against Florida capably for 30 minutes. Even with oodles of TV breaks in the modern game, however, it's still beneficial to have a sixth and seventh man who can provide quality minutes.

 

What's in store for 2008: When you have such a steep drop from the quality of the fifth man to the sixth, it's fairly easy to peg the future. Oregon loses Aaron Brooks, but returns the rest of its starting lineup. It's virtually certain that Ernie Kent has already inked a starting lineup that includes Tajuan Porter, Bryce Taylor, Malik Hairston and Maarty Leunen. The bulk of the uncertainty surrounding the Ducks' future concerns the point-guard position. No matter who plays there--and it's not yet clear who will--there's little doubt that the Ducks will suffer a drop-off in their point-guard play. Brooks was one of the best in the business in 2007, making 40% of his threes, 50% of his twos and 85% of his free throws. He used a team-high 24% of Oregon's possessions, and had a solid assist rate of 24%.

 

The fact that Brooks was able to use so many possessions allowed guys like Bryce Taylor and Maarty Leunen to be uber-efficient as role players, and allowed Porter, at 5'6", to get a ton of good looks from three-point range--252 of them to be exact, of which he made 43.7%. He was the 23rd-most frequent three-point shooter in the country. Among the top 30 players in three-point attempts, Porter was the third most accurate shooter. You may think that with a little guile a short player can get off open shots, but consider that Porter shot just 36.7% inside the three-point line.

 

Brooks' departure could have far-reaching effects, mainly because there isn't a natural point guard on the roster. Taylor and Porter will have to play some minutes there, but the strength of both is filling up the basket three points at a time. Junior Churchill Odia allegedly can play the point, although I'm not sure who would know since he has spent so few D-I minutes doing it. The only newcomers to the roster who could compete for the job are Kamyron Brown, a 6'2" freshman who most recently played high school ball in southern California, and 6'5" freshman LeKendric Longmire, who redshirted last season and is thought of as another shooting guard.

 

The most likely scenario is for Ernie Kent to shift away from the three- (and sometimes four-) guard set he relied on last season and go a little bit bigger, or at least go with guys that do things that big guys do. At 6'6", Joevan Catron can play the four and rebound more than capably from there. He should see a jump in minutes this season, and with Leunen up front, he'll be a part of one of the best rebounding duos in the Pac-10. That scenario would allow Hairston to play the bulk of his minutes at the wing and even some at the two, as opposed to occasionally being the fourth guard on the floor last season. Hairston does everything well except get to the free-throw line, which is puzzling considering he gets so many shots in paint. He actually was the team leader in block rate, although that's as much a reflection on the lack of hops and size in Leunen and Catron as anything else.

 

We can be pretty sure the offense will regress this season, but could the defense improve enough to keep this team in the Pac-10 race? This was a team didn't cause steals (ranking 136th nationally) or block shots (301st). In fact, it appears the only thing they did well defensively was defend the three-point line, holding opponents to 31.6% on the season. That figure was heavily padded against a weak non-conference schedule. Pac-10 opponents shot 35.5% from three-point range, which is actually slightly higher than the average accuracy during power-conference play last season.

 

While last season's team had surprise written all over it in the preseason for a variety of reasons, this year's edition seems primed for a reversal. They lose one significant contributor off of last season's roster, but when you only had five anyway, and the player you lose was unquestionably your MVP, that's enough to raise serious concerns. Throw in the fact that most of the conference is expected to improve and that Oregon's 11-7 conference record was about a game and a half better than they deserved, and then you can understand why returning to the NCAA Tournament is going to be a struggle.

 

OREGON STATE

 

What Oregon State did well: Lure C.J. Giles to the program.

 

When you go 11-21, and the best team you beat in non-conference play was Cal Poly, you need to look to the future. In the Beavers' case, the news they received in early January that Kansas transfer Giles would be coming to Corvallis easily qualified as a reason for optimism. The future begins on December 7, when Giles becomes eligible and will be OSU's starting center in a game against UC Davis.

 

For those not familiar with the 6'11" Giles, this isn't a case of a recruit reluctantly leaving a high-profile program to find a place where he can get playing time. Giles started 13 games as a sophomore for Bill Self in 2006, but was booted off the team early in the 2007 campaign because of a variety of attitude and legal problems. In 2006, he put up numbers in his 17 minutes per game that suggest he'll be very productive for coach Jay John at nearly double the minutes, the playing time he'll be expected to receive. He's one of the better shot blockers and offensive rebounders in the country. Even though he barely made 50% of his shots, he will take shots (taking 21.2% of KU's shots while on the floor), a quality that will be needed without Sasa Cuic around anymore.

 

What we learned in 2007: It's possible that age can affect a player's skills at the college level.

 

There were few players in the college game who saw a drop in production like that of 6'10" Sasa Cuic during his junior season. Cuic, who will turn 24 in December, experienced amazing decreases in some key stats.

 

 

eFG% OR% FTRate

2005 56.0 9.6 65

2006 45.9 3.7 36

 

 

It looks like the kind of thing you might see from a professional player who didn't know when to quit. Cuic was your typical contact-averse big man; his 2006 OR% is what you'd expect from a short and slow two-guard. Cuic was suspended for two games in December for what was apparently a bad attitude, then had to deal with an injured elbow during a part of the conference season. In another note of optimism for 2008, Cuic elected to forego his senior season and find work at the pro level overseas. It was a smart decision for all parties involved considering the arrival of Giles, the conflicts with coaching staff, and the fact that most players are completing their third year of pro ball by the time Cuic would have been graduating.

 

What's in store for 2008: The offense will get better. Being an important cog in the Beaver offense meant that Cuic's performance in his junior season was crippling to OSU's production. The Beavers ranked a stunning 201st in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency. Somehow, they managed to edge out Arizona State in offensive efficiency during conference play, but no power conference team could match OSU's portfolio of awful offensive performances. Four times last season they scored fewer than 50 points in games that had at least 65 possessions, most notably a 35-point effort in a 66-possession game at UCLA, and a 41-point game in a 77-possession contest at Hawaii that led to Cuic's suspension. Also departing the Beavers early is combo guard Wesley Washington. Washington, who committed turnovers with stunning regularity, was dismissed from the team in the off-season for academic reasons. OSU loses one senior of note from last season's roster. Starting center Kyle Jeffers was the team's best rebounder, and shot well in a limited offensive workload.

 

So this is somewhat of a new-look team. OSU will have seven new faces on its 14-man roster, but none will have anywhere near the impact of Giles. Jay John did get a summer commitment from 6'9" Sean Carter, who should get some minutes at the power forward position alongside Giles. Six-foot-three freshman Lathen Wallace redshirted last season, but will get some minutes at the two.

 

Two players we know will get lots of minutes this season are sophomore point guard Josh Tarver and senior forward Marcel Jones. Considering what he had to work with, Tarver was effective as a distributor, but his 40.7 eFG% jumps off the stat sheet. Tarver converted just 22% of his 118 three-point attempts. With a center who will command much attention from the defense, Tarver will get better looks at the hoop this season, even if his stroke doesn't justify taking any more attempts that he did last season. It's hard to gauge Jones' game because he took a whopping 30.9% of the Beavers' shots while he was on the floor, a figure exceed by only two players in the conference. Given that, Jones eFG% of 49.7 was tolerable. His total inability to get the line, however, was not, and was one of the reasons his early declaration for the NBA Draft was met by the sound of chirping crickets. Jones subsequently took his name out of the draft, and can be a nice offensive player if his shooting load decreases.

 

John has two other returnees at center, junior Roeland Schaftenaar and sophomore Calvin Hampton. If things go as expected, their playing time will drop after Giles becomes eligible. Junior Jack McGillis had a shot at filling the starting lineup at small forward, but transferred to Montana late in the offseason. McGillis made 35.9% of his three-point attempts last season, and on a team that collectively made a power-conference worst 29.1% of their three-point attempts, that qualified him as the sniper of the team. The loss of McGillis means even more minutes for sophomore Seth Tarver, who can play the two-guard, but is a better fit for the wing as more of a slasher than a shooter.

 

There are a lot of new faces on the roster at Oregon State, with Giles the one that can make the most difference. The Beavers seem like a shoo-in for the cellar of the Pac-10, but if Giles embraces the starring role with the maturity and leadership he professes to have gained from his ordeal in Lawrence, then OSU will at least be competitive more often this season.

 

 

STANFORD

 

What Stanford did well: The things a big team does.

 

As a team that got more minutes from seven-footers than any other D-I team but Colorado State last season, you'd expect Stanford to look like a big team on the stat sheet. Indeed, the Cardinal was accomplished in areas that teams with size should be: They rebounded well on both ends of the floor, they blocked shots, they rarely had their own shots blocked and they held opponents to a low two-point FG%.

 

Stanford wasn't very good at taking care of the ball and was especially poor at forcing turnovers, with the third-worst defensive turnover rate in the country. The latter can be excused as a design of Trent Johnson's defensive system. After all, if it's difficult for opponents to score inside the arc, then you might as well concentrate on forcing them to take shots there. However, the giveaways on offense were costly, because this was a team needed to get off shots to be successful. Stanford didn't shoot well, but it rebounded so many of its misses that merely getting something to the rim often led to positive things. There was no better example of that than their first-round NCAA Tournament loss to Louisville. Stanford wilted under Rick Pitino's team's pressure en route to a 77-57 loss that became lopsided early. The 21-turnover performance was one of Stanford's worst offensive games. They scored just 58 points in 70 possessions despite rebounding about half of their missed shots.

 

What we learned in 2007: Mike Montgomery missed the college game.

 

It's not a new story. Successful college coach gets a job in the NBA, loses a bunch of games, gets fired, and finds himself back at the college level. In the case of former Stanford head coach Mike Montgomery, who won 393 games during a 19-year run in Palo Alto that ended in 2004, he returns to his old school, but as Assistant to the Athletic Director and not as head coach. Regardless, Montgomery will be a valuable asset to Trent Johnson. This won't be an uncomfortable situation, either. Johnson's job is secure; he worked under Montgomery on the Stanford staff in the late '90s. If Montgomery wants to get back to a college bench, it's going to be somewhere else. In the meantime, he'll be a valuable adviser to the Stanford program.

 

What's in store for 2008: Stanford returns its top nine players by minutes played last season. Coming off a season that ended with a surprising appearance in the NCAA Tournament, there's a high ceiling for this team. Sophomore seven-footer Brook Lopez decided to come back to Stanford this year (though he'll miss the first seven games due to an academic suspension), a decision that wasn't obvious at the end of the season.

 

While Lopez carried the biggest shooting load of any Pac-10 player, there's room for improvement in his game. He posted a 50.2 eFG%, which isn't the kind of thing you want to see from an imposing big man. Brook does get pushed to the power forward on occasion when his identical twin brother Robin is in the game, and Brook will shoot some jump shots (he actually tried 15 three-pointers) so that partially explains a lower than expected shooting accuracy. Given how often he shot, his shooting percentage certainly isn't horrible, but it could improve. The real problem areas are that he commits turnovers at a high rate, even considering how often he touches the ball, and he doesn't grab offensive rebounds well considering his size - his OR% of 8.1 is worse than the average 6'7" player. He also is merely an average shot blocker for his size, swatting about 6% of opposing two-point attempts.

 

With all that said, Trent Johnson is fortunate to have Brook Lopez back, even if he is a little soft. Lesser players have decided to develop their game in the NBA instead of college. Robin Lopez is definitely not the offensive force that his brother is, but he does block shots and rebound on the offensive end better.

 

Even with the twins around, it's not all rosy. Junior forward Lawrence Hill made amazing progress between his freshman and sophomore seasons. Had I written a preview last season, I probably would have given Hill about eight words describing his woeful shooting and moved on. But Hill went from being an awful shooter (42.0 eFG%) to a great one (58.0%). His true skill is likely closer to great, but he'll also likely take a step back towards normalcy this season.

 

The big weak spot is at point guard. Mitch Johnson shot poorly in 2007 and turned the ball over too frequently. The shooting may not be a glaring problem since Hill and Brook Lopez will own such a large share of the team's shot attempts. Stanford was one of the more turnover prone teams in the Pac-10, and if they want to rise above the middle of the league, they're going to need better point guard play. Also starting in the backcourt will be junior Anthony Goods, who stepped into the starting lineup last season after playing sparingly as a freshman. Goods performed well, though he set a high bar by scoring 30 in his starting debut against Siena in Stanford's opening game. Goods was the third option offensively, and should retain that role this season. Filling out the starting lineup will be fifth-year senior Fred Washington. Washington is not much of a factor offensively, and tends to be turnover-prone as well.

 

Stanford also has experience on its bench. Most notably, 6'5" sophomore Landry Fields and 6'8" senior Taj Finger averaged double-digit minutes last season. However, with every starter returning, it's unlikely either will see an increase in playing time.

 

In a conference with some high-profile big men, Brook Lopez may be the best of them this season. There's plenty of room for his game to grow, and grow it must if Stanford is to challenge for UCLA for conference supremacy.

 

UCLA

 

What UCLA did well: Play lock-down defense.

 

I hope you weren't expecting something shocking here, because it's no surprise that a Ben Howland team would play excellent defense. UCLA had no weakness on defense. Their 3P% allowed was a below average 35.1% for the season, but that's deceiving because they allowed the 11th fewest three-point attempts in the nation.

 

The 2007 UCLA defense was the best of Howland's tenure in Westwood. While you can count on UCLA games being low-scoring, when the D is at its best, their games aren't boring. Their defense is aggressive, frequently double-teaming and jumping into passing lanes and forcing steals. It's not a clutch-and-grab defense, at least not by today's standards. It's a defense based on anticipation and quickness.

 

What we learned in 2007: Defense doesn't win championships.

 

Actually, this is more of a stand against traditional basketball platitudes than anything else. There isn't one single thing that wins championships; having a great defense is a good start towards winning one. In fact, had Arron Afflalo not picked up his second foul on a seemingly phantom call less than two minutes into the national semifinal against Florida, UCLA may well have gotten its championship. "May" being the key word. Florida was the better team even when Afflalo was on the floor, but nobody can doubt that having to play Michael Roll for about 12 more minutes than Howland would have liked significantly degraded UCLA's chances of an upset.

 

What's in store for 2008: UCLA loses only Afflalo from a team that was among the best in the nation at the end of the season, and they have what some have tabbed as the nation's best incoming freshman in center Kevin Love. It doesn't take fancy analysis to understand that this year's version of the Bruins should be thinking national championship from the get-go, and you couldn't hold it against someone for making UCLA the preseason #1.

 

The best news UCLA got in the offseason was that junior point guard Darren Collison would be coming back to the Bruins. Collison was projected to be a first-round pick after doing a stellar job replacing his predecessor, fellow first-round pick Jordan Farmar. Collison's offensive game is different than Farmar's, with the prime difference being that Collison doesn't shoot as much, but is much more accurate.

 

This change forced Afflalo and Josh Shipp to get more involved in the offense than in previous seasons. It also should allow Kevin Love to come in and have every opportunity to put up big offensive numbers, as much as that can be done on a slow-paced team. Love rose to the top of multiple recruiting rankings last season, and he enters with the reputation of being the rare freshman big man with a refined offensive game. He's actually comfortable with his back to the basket, something that can't be said about many college players, regardless of class.

 

More than likely, Love will need to live up to his billing for UCLA to fulfill the #1 prophecies. UCLA must improve its offense to have a shot at April glory, and outside of Collison and Shipp, does not return anyone who can be expected to produce consistently. Additionally, Afflalo was the Bruins' best individual defender, so there's no guarantee that UCLA's defense will be able to maintain its status as arguably the nation's best defense.

 

UCLA returns junior Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and senior Lorenzo Mata, who started every game last season, and top reserve Alfred Aboya, who averaged 18 minutes a game. The details on each player are slightly different, but all are excellent rebounders who contribute little else on the offensive end. Lorenzo Mata made 64.2% of his shots from the field last season, but primarily on putbacks and shots within five feet. Mata also is a late-game liability because of his poor free-throw shooting. At 37.23%, Mata missed being the worst free-throw shooter in the nation (among those with at least 60 FTA's) by 0.02%. He has New Mexico State center Martin Iti to thank.

 

Mbah a Moute is still regarded of having the most upside of the trio, but there's the issue of his major rate stats having regressed during his sophomore season.

 

 

ORtg %Poss OR% DR% eFG% FTRate

2006 113.3 18.1 13.5 21.5 54.8 45.0

2007 102.9 18.3 10.5 21.0 51.3 33.5

 

Mbah a Moute did suffer a sprained right knee in late January and actually missed a game against Arizona because of it. He actually shot better after the injury than before it, so any thoughts that his numbers were affected by his health can be ruled out. It's likely that commentators will be talking about Mbah a Moute's potential more than his output for another season.

 

Ben Howland has one of the stronger benches in the land at his disposal. The aforementioned Michael Roll will be one of the top reserves, filling in at shooting guard. Russell Westbrook can spell Collison at the point. Howland also has freshman Chase Stanback, who is expected to fill some minutes at the three. The Bruins were expecting sophomore forward and former high school All-American James Keefe to take on a bigger role, but a summer shoulder injury will keep him sidelined until conference play starts.

 

The UCLA offense is going to be heavily dependent on the trio of Love, Collison and Shipp. Love, and to a lesser extent Collison, have not been in that situation at the collegiate level, but Shipp proved last season that he could take a large offensive load (23.5 usage rate) and be successful. The only uncertainty with Shipp is his health. He had hip surgery for the second time in the last two years in April, This time surgery was on the left hip, and not the right one that cause him to miss nearly the entire 2006 season.

 

Howland's run of excellence should continue in 2008, but that doesn't mean the future is certain for the Bruins. Of all the teams getting #1 buzz, UCLA has the most unknowns. However, this team is the favorite to win the conference again. Like most teams that rely heavily on a freshman, they may get off to a slow start, but by the time March rolls around, a healthy UCLA team will be one of the best in the nation.

 

USC

 

What USC did well: Improve their shot selection.

 

In Tim Floyd's second season at USC, the Trojans made great strides in the areas that hurt them most in Floyd's inaugural season: shooting offense and defense. On the offensive side, much of the Trojans' improvement can be chalked up to their judicious use of the three-point shot. In 2006, USC took 34.6% of their shots from three-point range, a figure that dropped to 26.3% (23rd-lowest in the nation) last season. Not surprisingly, USC's three-point accuracy increased as the team became more discriminatory in its approach, from 34.5% to 39.5% (23rd-best in the country). In fact, their 3-point percentage rose to 40.9% in conference play, fourth-best among power conference teams. You could make the case that USC actually went too far to the other extreme.

 

What we learned in 2007: USC's bench did not like to shoot.

 

One thing became apparent during USC's 2007 campaign: If somebody was on the floor who wasn't in Tim Floyd's six-man rotation, they weren't a threat to shoot the ball. It's rare for a player to only take about 10% of his team's shots while he's on the floor. Of the 3,368 players that clocked at least 10% of their team's minutes, only 103 took fewer than 11% of their team's shots. USC had three such players on their bench: RouSean Cromwell, Keith Wilkinson and Kevin Galloway (who quit the team mid-season). A fourth bench player, Abdoulaye N'Diaye, took about 14% of USC's shots. For the most part, when somebody took off their warm-ups, the opposition could eliminate them as a shooting option. In the season-ender against North Carolina, USC reserves took a total of two shots from the field and none from the free-throw line.

 

What's in store for 2008: While seven of the ten teams in the conference return at least 70% of their minutes from last season, USC falls into the minority that returns less than half of their playing time from 2006. Of course, the introduction of point guard O.J. Mayo should be an upgrade from last season, but that doesn't change the fact that this is a very young team in a league with a lot of experience.

 

That's not to say we should count out USC in the Pac-10 race. The situation isn't much different from last season, when three freshmen were among the Trojans' top seven in terms of playing time. However, they will have to replace Nick Young and Gabe Pruitt, who were taken with the 16th and 32nd picks, respectively, in the NBA Draft. There's a pretty good chance--but no guarantee--that Mayo can improve on what Young did during this junior season in 2007. While Mayo won't be replacing Young in terms of position on the floor (Young played both the two and the three last season), he will be needed to replace Young's contribution to the offense. There's a temptation to say that Young was the 16th pick, and Mayo will be a top-three pick in '08, so of course Mayo is going to be better than Young. But let's look at Young's season as compared to some of the better freshmen performers last season.

 

 

Player ORtg %Poss

Nick Young 110.6 25.0

Kevin Durant 116.5 31.6

Greg Oden 116.2 26.3

Ryan Anderson 114.3 23.8

 

When looking at all freshmen who played at least 70% of their team's minutes, only Durant and Oden were obviously more productive offensively than Nick Young was. I threw Cal's Ryan Anderson in the comparison because there were a bunch of players that could claim to be the third-most productive freshman in the country last season. Anderson was among that group, and being in the Pac-10, provides a direct comparison of what a very good freshman season looks like, and it was only marginally better than Young's season.

 

Mayo will almost certainly post numbers closer to Durant and Oden than Anderson, but it's far from a slam dunk that Mayo will be a significantly better go-to guy than Young was. In order for USC to match their 11 conference wins from '07, the Trojans will have to be more than the O.J. Show.

 

There will be a lot of competition as to who will join Mayo in the backcourt. A late development for the program was the eligibility of 5'10" freshman Angelo Johnson, who should get some minutes at the point and push Mayo to the shooting guard when he does. Two other sophomores figure to get regular minutes at the two and occasionally the wing. Daniel Hackett and Dwight Lewis are both 6'5" and differ in the respect that Hackett has a reputation of being a defensive specialist while Lewis is more involved on the offensive end.

 

The most notable of Mayo's teammates is sophomore C/PF Taj Gibson. Gibson started every game for Tim Floyd, and turned out to be very well-rounded. He's a proficient rebounder on both ends, he blocks shots and he is an effective offensive player. He'll have plenty of room to grow on this team, and it's not out of the question that he'll lead the team in scoring. Finding a big man to play alongside Gibson will be the challenge. Junior RouSean Cromwell averaged 13 minutes a game and actually started five of them, but hardly ever shoots (taking only 10% of his team's shots) and is a poor rebounder for his size. Among USC's large freshman class is seven-footer Mamadou Diarra. Even if Diarra is a project, there's enough playing time to go around up front for him to get minutes.

 

Floyd brought in three freshmen capable of playing the wing, with 6'8" Davon Jefferson the most likely to earn big minutes. Regardless of how much the freshmen play, this is a team where even the returning players lack experience. Any time you lose your three best players, a drop-off can be expected. But with the addition of Mayo and, to a lesser degree, Jefferson, that's not necessarily a guarantee.

 

WASHINGTON

 

What Washington did well: Grab offensive boards.

 

In the time I've been using advanced basketball statistics--which isn't that long, mind you--it always seems that offensive rebounding is undervalued by our counterparts who are not statistically savvy. Often, people simply refer qualitatively to a team's rebounding ability. We're advanced enough now to separate rebounding into its offensive and defensive components. And offensive rebounding can be a big reason why an offense is consistently successful.

 

Not that the Huskies' offense was great last season; it wasn't. In the other two major offensive factors they weren't very good. They turned the ball over too much and didn't get to the line very often, especially considering they hardly shot three-pointers. They also didn't shoot well, but since they rebounded so many of their misses (42.2%, second most in the country), their shooting percentage wasn't as big of a concern. A lot of their misses became putbacks. The rebounding prowess shouldn't diminish this season. Washington's only significant departure was 6'11" center Spencer Hawes, who went 10th in the NBA draft. His big weakness was that he wasn't a very good rebounder on the offensive end. Among the 67 NCAA players listed at 6'11" last season, Hawes ranked 52nd with his OR% of 8.2.

 

What we learned in 2007: NBA potential doesn't mean much on the college level.

 

It's an old truth in college basketball, and just about any other sport, that talent wins. In the college game, one arbiter of talent is the NBA. From the moment Spencer Hawes arrived in Seattle, it was thought that he would be an NBA lottery pick after his freshman season. It was partly based on these thoughts that Washington was tabbed as the AP pre-season #17 team despite losing arguably the best all-around player in the college game in Brandon Roy.

 

Hawes came and went and fulfilled the lottery-pick prophecies, but wasn't a terribly effective center by Pac-10 standards, and he probably wasn't the most valuable player on his own team. In terms of overall value, Jon Brockman was at least comparable to Hawes, but Brockman isn't on the NBA's radar at the moment. Hawes has more upside, but sometimes the gulf between upside and reality can be so big that it skews our perception of what a player is actually doing for his college team.

 

What's in store for 2008: Losing a lottery pick off a team that failed to meet expectations isn't a formula for success the following season. When the reason for the disappointment was partly because of that lottery pick, then there actually is reason for hope. That's the situation for the '08 Huskies. Don't misunderstand me, Hawes will not be easy to replace, and Washington doesn't have a true center on the roster who can step in and give head coach Lorenzo Romar serious minutes. Still, Hawes won't be as difficult to replace as his draft slot suggests.

 

Washington returns a nucleus that includes the 6'7" Brockman and 6'6" sophomore Quincy Pondexter, both of whom were reliable scorers, with Pondexter getting his points a little farther from the hoop. In addition, senior Ryan Appleby was one of the better three-point specialists in the nation last season, hitting 43.3% of his attempts. Running the point will be junior Justin Dentmon, who started all but six of UW's games in his first two seasons. Dentmon has a problem with turnovers and has not convinced opponents he can make shots, be they inside the arc or out. He's posted eFG% of 46.1 and 45.1 his first two seasons.

 

There will be no replacement for Hawes, but all that means is that Washington will revert to the Romar prototype of a smaller and faster team. This was the standard for NCAA Tournament trips in '04, '05, and '06. Consider the slip in the Huskies pace last season.

 

 

Adj. Poss/40 min National Rank

2007 70.0 37

2006 72.8 11

2005 72.9 14

2004 75.2 3

 

A drop of three possessions per game isn't huge, but the offense was tangibly more deliberate while trying to get Hawes involved. There should be a rebound in pace this season with a frontline that includes Brockman, Pondexter and some combination of 6'8" junior Artem Wallace, 6'9" freshman Matthew Bryan-Amaning and 6'8" freshman Darnell Gant.

 

Washington's offense should be good enough to get them to the tournament, especially if the point-guard play improves. Some questions linger on the defense, which finished with an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of 82, third-worst in the conference. Once again, the loss of Hawes shouldn't be obsessed over. Hawes was a respectable defensive rebounder, but only a so-so shot blocker, and generally not thought of as a defensive presence considering his size.

 

Appleby brings the typical baggage of a one-dimensional player in that he is a poor defender. Whoever is on the floor at the point, be it the 5-11 Dentmon or 6-0 freshman Venoy Overton, will be on the short side. UW's Achilles' heel was forcing turnovers; they ranked 309th in forcing steals and 273rd in forcing turnovers. A slightly more athletic front line and a more aggressive defense in general should cause that figure to improve, but there's little to suggest it will recover to 2006 levels, when Washington was 30th in the nation in forcing turnovers.

 

Washington has enough talent to get back to the NCAA Tournament after a one year absence. Perhaps more importantly is that there are no one-and-dones on this roster. This season may be a rebound year, but it could also set the stage for a 2009 run at a Pac-10 title.

 

WASHINGTON STATE

 

What Washington State did well: Take care of the basketball.

 

When a team isn't in the business of grabbing offensive rebounds, it better make the most of its possessions. That's what the Cougars did last season, giving the ball away on about one in every six possessions, the sixth-best rate in the country. Individually, one has to marvel at the transformation of combo guard Derrick Low. In 2006, Low committed 51 turnovers in 637 minutes played. In 2007, he played 533 more minutes and committed five fewer turnovers.

 

The improvement in ball security was vital to the success of Washington State's offense, because they rarely get second chances. If you don't get second chances, you better get a bunch of first chances. By not giving the ball away, Wazzu ensured that it got enough shots even without rebounding its own misses. It didn't hurt that they posted an eFG of 52.0% on the season, making their first shot a score more often than it was for most teams.

 

What we learned in 2007: Washington State was one of the biggest surprises in the nation.

 

The Cougars' head coach, Tony Bennett, pretty much swept national Coach of the Year awards last season. Coach of the Year in any sport is just another way to say "this team exceeded expectations more than anybody else." Indeed, by some objective methods, Wazzu did provide the biggest surprise in the country last season. These objective methods will be discussed after the season starts, but for now just know that a team that wins four games in conference, was significantly unlucky, and returned about 60% of its minutes, should expect an improvement to seven wins the following season. The Cougars won 13 conference games last season, exceeding their formulaic projection by six, more than any other power conference team did.

 

What's in store for 2008: Just like a four-win team can be blindly expected to improve in the absence of any other factors, a 13-win team can be expected to fall back to the pack without knowing anything else. Additional information tells us that Washington State's out-of-the-blue performance in 2007 is more likely to be the start of a prolonged period of good basketball than a total fluke. First of all, based on point differential, Washington State deserved those 13 wins. Second, the Cougars return about 80% of their minutes from 2007. Only UCLA and Stanford return more in the Pac-10, and even then, it's barely more.

 

This is a case where if we renamed Washington State "Arizona," it would be unthinkable to keep them out of a preseason top 10. Think about it; this team went 13-5 in conference and each of their losses was by eight points or less, including two overtime games. Statistically, there was nothing fluky about the Cougars' season. Most of their offense was generated inside the arc, and they also defended the paint very well. The name on the jersey shouldn't matter in an evaluation of this team. In the past five years we've seen teams like Texas A&M and Air Force shed decades of bad basketball history to become factors in their conference's races.

 

There is one legitimate argument in favor of a potential Washington State disappointment in 2008. The Cougars may not have a first-round draft choice on their roster. Their starting backcourt, featuring seniors Kyle Weaver and Derrick Low, will get some interest from NBA teams depending on their performance this season. But "som

Edited October 23, 2007 by theprofessor

[theprofessor]

Continued from Page 1

 

No backcourt tandem averaged more minutes than Low and Weaver in 2007, and that doesn't figure to change this season. The two are somewhat interchangeable positionally, but Weaver played much more of the point in '07, and given Low's drastic reduction in turnovers playing the two, this combination delivers the most offense. The style of each player is almost exactly complementary. Low connected on 39.9% of his 188 three-point attempts last season and got to the free throw line just 76 times. Weaver was just 9-for-38 from three-point range and got to the line 139 times.

 

The Cougars have one other three-point threat in 6'7" junior Daven Harmeling. Harmeling is even more of a shooting specialist than Low is, taking about 60% of his shots from three-point range and making 43.0% of them. Amazingly, despite averaging 27 minutes in 33 games played, Harmeling grabbed a total of just eight offensive rebounds. Washington State's center will be 6'10" senior Robbie Cowgill, a three-year starter. Cowgill fits the WSU stereotype--he's an adequate defensive rebounder and especially stingy with turnovers. Cowgill has not had much impact on the offensive end during his career, and in '07 he shot just 48.0% from two-point range even though he was very selective on his shots.

 

With the loss of wing Ivory Clark, Tony Bennett should give numerous minutes to a three-guard lineup that will include 6'1" sophomore Taylor Rochestie. Bennett played a similar lineup over the last month of the '07 season, when Rochestie's playing time rose from 11.1 mpg before February 8 to 28.7 mpg after that date. The defense suffered under this lineup, which is not surprising considering that Clark, whose minutes were similarly cut, was the team's best shot blocker and defensive rebounder.

 

State's bench is thin, but considering the pace this team is comfortable with (last season they were the 14th-slowest team in the nation), this can be hidden. Junior Aron Baynes will get significant minutes at center, and it's not out of the question he could take over the starting spot from Cowgill at some point. Baynes actually played alongside Cowgill for significant stretches late in the season, possibly making Washington State the only team to employ a three-guard, two-center lineup.

 

A few things went right for the Cougars last season, but overall this team was convincingly the second-best team in the Pac-10. Assuming they avoid key injuries in 2008, Washington State will back in the Tournament with a high seed. However, given the competition at the top of the conference, a repeat second-place finish is far from a sure thing.

 

It sets up to be another great basketball season in the Pac-10!!

[PantherDave]

Keep this going all year so WildCat will quit mucking up our ACC threads....how about PAC10 Hoops-Blah Blah

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hey WC

[theprofessor]

Keep this going all year so WildCat will quit mucking up our ACC threads....how about PAC10 Hoops-Blah Blah

Hey WC

 

Oh, we will Pac 10 = Conference Of Champions!!

[PantherDave]

Arz St fans, get very, very use to players jumping ship on Herb. He must hold the NCAA record for kids transfering and leaving early. However, I'm grate ful for Herb to getting the Pack back on track, but he was the Tobacco Road punching boy for 10 years.

[PantherDave]

Oh, we will Pac 10 = Conference Of Champions!!

 

I pumped brother, and you fellas play alright Hoops out there-I can't wait!!!!!!!!!

[theprofessor]

I pumped brother, and you fellas play alright Hoops out there-I can't wait!!!!!!!!!

 

 

College football overlapped by College basketball .............. Can it get any better?!!!!

[wildcat2334]

Keep this going all year so WildCat will quit mucking up our ACC threads....how about PAC10 Hoops-Blah Blah

Hey WC

 

 

You betchyer ass I will be in yer ACC threads..............

 

as a diehard Pac 10 football and basketball guy- I have respect for 2 things.............

 

ACC Basketball and SEC football.

[wildcat2334]

The deepest, strongest conference in America, The Pac 10 lands 6 teams in the preseason top 25...........

 

2 UCLA

10 WSU

13 OREGON

17 UA

18 USC

21 STAN

 

 

Looks like 6 locks for the big dance- and CAL/UW have a solid shot as well. I read somehwere if the Pac 10 gets 7 in, it will be the first time in NCAA history a league would have 70% of it's teams make the NCAA tourney.

[PantherDave]

The deepest, strongest conference in America, The Pac 10 lands 6 teams in the preseason top 25...........

 

2 UCLA

10 WSU

13 OREGON

17 UA

18 USC

21 STAN

Looks like 6 locks for the big dance- and CAL/UW have a solid shot as well. I read somehwere if the Pac 10 gets 7 in, it will be the first time in NCAA history a league would have 70% of it's teams make the NCAA tourney.

 

 

I would much rather have the ACC/PAC 10 Challenge, as the ACC has dominated the Big 10 in the Challenge over the years, and the PAC 10 should have a very nice year as a conference and should be the RPI # 1 this year as well.