Brentastic Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 The DOW closed below a crucial point today (8220) - which means, per my analysis, the near short-term should see the DOW drop to around 7600. The near long-term future holds even more of a drop but this is part of the process - a stairstep down. The rally from March through June 11 was a bear market rally. More doom and gloom ahead. I suggest all of you with 401Ks try to sell your positions and hold cash for the immediate future. Some of you may remember me claiming the DOW could drop to as low as 1,000 - but more realistically, 3,500 or so within the next 3-5 years. I still think this is likely but not without the typicaly retracements (like the March-June move). I sold all my stocks back on June 5th (the market peaked on June 11). Since the June 11 peak, the market has dropped over 700 points! Discuss market gurus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 I think I've already mentioned my stance and I've pulled out of the stock market a year ago in favor of gold/silver because I believe the dollar has some falling out to do... the only other thing I see myself investing in is land somewhere in the country where I can sustain some sort of food supply on my own, but a bill that is supposed to be getting passed...if it isn't already, would negate that and it's supposed to prevent you from being able to grow organic foods....tomato's or even have a chicken coup (not that I'd personally do that) and that really limits the freedom in this Country... smart investments right now seem to be few and far between...and the last place I am looking right now is stocks or even bonds... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted July 7, 2009 Author Share Posted July 7, 2009 The best investment right now is to hold cash. The dollar should rally in the near short-term (not sure what it did today), but I can provide more on that tonight or tomorrow. I think Gold and Silver have topped out or are close to doing so - when I get home from work, I will look into this a bit more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 The best investment right now is to hold cash. The dollar should rally in the near short-term (not sure what it did today), but I can provide more on that tonight or tomorrow. I think Gold and Silver have topped out or are close to doing so - when I get home from work, I will look into this a bit more. watch the video I posted in the thread I started a bit below.....let me know what you think about that... it's very interesting on the outlook of gold/silver... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted July 7, 2009 Author Share Posted July 7, 2009 watch the video I posted in the thread I started a bit below.....let me know what you think about that... it's very interesting on the outlook of gold/silver... I will later tonight - no sound on my work computer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted July 8, 2009 Author Share Posted July 8, 2009 (edited) watch the video I posted in the thread I started a bit below.....let me know what you think about that... it's very interesting on the outlook of gold/silver... I watched the video and in the long run, it makes sense that gold will climb much higher. In the short term, however, I see a larger pullback in place. The short-term downside target price for gold would be around $680. Edited July 8, 2009 by Brentastic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 I watched the video and in the long run, it makes sense that gold will climb much higher. In the short term, however, I see a larger pullback in place. The short-term downside target price for gold would be around $680. I definitely agree on the pullback and we've seen it since the end of June...even though it seems that Gold drops in price every year around this time anyways... silver normally does too, except last year when it hit $20 per oz I think.....I'm just going off what I recall... I'm buying during the entire pullback phase and hopefully I can get a decent return in the longrun... I also think that the bottom is around in the high 700's/ low 800's...but that's easily debatable... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Some gurus will certainly tell you to keep buying into your falling 401K. That way, the stocks you buy in today's 8200 NYSE market will be better when averaged with those you buy 6 months from now in a 7000 market I am also all-cash, and continuing to invest in 3-to-6 month CDs for the short term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted July 8, 2009 Author Share Posted July 8, 2009 Last night I took over my mom's 401K and put her 50% into PIMCO and then 25% each in two other bond funds. Of her fund options, those were the best (safest) - in fact all of her other options have lost money in the last year and 3 years. What's even more troubling is that her fund advisor suggested 4 funds that all were stock or equity funds. I'm like The market clearly has some more downside potential and these guys get paid for that sound advice. Sometimes I wonder if the 401K fund companies have behind the back deals with some of these funds they push? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 JPM best seller in SPU (1500-2000); hearing some talk about the head and shoulders formation in SP and DJI with Cit FX calling for a test of 822 now that 892 broken on close. Neck line in SP is 871.25 and we are still looking for a test and break of 867 gaining downside momentum to 841 in SPU and NDU to test 1333 now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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