White House Caught Altering Stimulus Baseline Projection by 7 Million Jobs...

[posty]

http://biggovernment.com/capitolconfidenti...7-million-jobs/

 

The number of jobs in the U.S. is currently 129.7 million. So to justify the Administration’s current claim of 2.8 million jobs “created or saved” by stimulus, they need to also claim that without that stimulus there would be only 126.9 million jobs. That’s exactly what they do, displayed as the “baseline projection” level in the graphic below from an April 14, 2010 report:

 

IMAGE

 

An inconvenient truth, at least for the Obama Administration, is that once upon a time, in their January 2009 Romer/Bernstein Report they told America that without their stimulus there would be 133.9 million jobs. That’s right, in order to make it look like their stimulus has “created or saved” 2.8 million jobs, the Obama Administration first had to whack 7 million jobs from their previous estimates.

 

Here’s the math:

 

Step 1: How many jobs does the Administration currently claim there would be, without stimulus?

 

129.7 million Current number of U.S. jobs

 

- 2.8 million Jobs currently claimed to be “created or saved”

 

126.9 million Jobs the Administration currently claims there would be without stimulus

 

Step 2: How does that compare with the number of jobs the Administration used to say there would be without stimulus?

 

133.9 million January 2009 projection of jobs without stimulus

 

- 126.9 million Current claim of jobs without stimulus

 

= 7 million Jobs removed from the Administration “baseline” to justify their latest stimulus job creation claims

 

Here’s the story problem:

 

This year 11-year old Jane’s class is studying money and budgets. In September every student wrote down their savings, and what they wanted in savings by the end of school in June. Jane started with $134, but wants to do better and have $137 ($3 more) saved by year’s end. She figures that will be easy, since she will get birthday money in a few months. But now it’s late May, and Jane has only $130, because she spent her birthday money, and then some. What should Jane do in her final report on the savings project?

 

1. Be honest and admit she didn’t reach her goals of $3 more in savings, totaling $137, due to her spending habits; or

2. Say at the start of the year she only “really” thought she would have $127 saved by year’s end, and claim “success” for ending up with $3 more than that and see if her teacher notices.

[SEC=UGA]

No suprise, his is how government operates... Crazy accounting practices, padding budgets, claiming that budgets have been cut from year to year if they only get a 5% increase and were slated for a 7% increase... Freaking ridiculous. I would like to open up on the current admin for this, but unfortunately realize that every admin does crap like this... Just another fine example of how we are getting royally Penny Laneed by people who supposedly work for us.

[WaterMan]

What's a few million to the rich eh?

[JoJoTheWebToedBoy]

 

OMG, Impeach the foreign born brown skinned communist gun hating Muslim who's sole purpose is to destroy the very frabic of our being while turning over this great country to a Mexican lead UN coalition.......

[bushwacked]

Andrew Breitbart, making up stuff for the gullible to froth about since 2004.

[Azazello1313]

it's just a moving target. whatever happens in the real world, you just say "it would have been exactly x amount worse without our wonderful stimulus bill". you sell the bill saying unemployment will be 8% with the bill, 9% without it....then when it passes and unemployment hits 10%, you just say "gosh, thank goodness for the stimulus or it would be 12%" .

 

the only part they know for sure, actual evidence be damned, is that their bill created 2.8 million jobs! yep, that's the number. you can just tweak all the other inputs until they give you the answer you want.

[cliaz]

OMG, Impeach the foreign born brown skinned communist gun hating Muslim who's sole purpose is to destroy the very frabic of our being while turning over this great country to a Mexican lead UN coalition.......

 

+1 but I mean it

[SayItAintSoJoe]

http://biggovernment.com/capitolconfidenti...7-million-jobs/

 

The number of jobs in the U.S. is currently 129.7 million. So to justify the Administration's current claim of 2.8 million jobs "created or saved" by stimulus, they need to also claim that without that stimulus there would be only 126.9 million jobs.

 

 

They cannot claim that. That 129.7 million is an ever changing number that their policies are not completely in control of. If I open a company tommorow that hires 100,000 people I can claim to have created 100,000 jobs regardless of what the number of jobs in the U.S. is the next time that figure comes out. I don't need it to be (nor would I expect it to be) 129.8 million in order to assert my claim that I created 100,000 jobs. I would hope that the 129.7 would go up but there are too many other variables that affect the total. The figure could come in next time at 128.5. Did I still create 100,000 jobs? Yes. You cannot use just the total number of jobs in the US to either prove or disprove the affect of the stimulus.

[Azazello1313]

They cannot claim that. That 129.7 million is an ever changing number that their policies are not completely in control of. If I open a company tommorow that hires 100,000 people I can claim to have created 100,000 jobs regardless of what the number of jobs in the U.S. is the next time that figure comes out. I don't need it to be (nor would I expect it to be) 129.8 million in order to assert my claim that I created 100,000 jobs. I would hope that the 129.7 would go up but there are too many other variables that affect the total. The figure could come in next time at 128.5. Did I still create 100,000 jobs? Yes. You cannot use just the total number of jobs in the US to either prove or disprove the affect of the stimulus.

 

except that that is how they sold the bill. they made specific assertions about what would happen with and without the stimulus. here's a graph of how we're actually doing against those assertions. the dark blue line is what they said would happen if we passed their bill. the light blue line is what would happen if we didn't. the red dots are the actual data to date.

 

also, when they talk about 2.8 million jobs, they're NOT talking about jobs they actually can document and KNOW have been created (like the 100,000 person payroll in your example). they are making a wild ass guess about all kinds of ripple effects they can't control or measure in any way. and they are using the same exact guessing techniques they used to come up with the chart I just linked. they can't account for the vast majority of these purported 2.8 million jobs, nor can they explain why all the predictions they made that can actually be measured after the fact were so wildly wrong....but they can sure claim credit for stuff nobody can verify!