Methods for Determining Values

[Big Country]

For anyone that has been here nore than a few months, you know I am a big proponent of studying a leagues setup and scoring system to look for value. The method I usually tout, mainly for it's simplicity to apply, is the worst starter method, where essentially you baseline all players within a position against the "Worst Starter" in that position, thus giving you a "Value" that you can use to compare players across different positions. In a perfect world, I like to use an average of 3 years worth of data to help minimize anomalies from a single season.

 

I've written in depth in the past about how I apply these value numbers during the draft, in particular looking for the bigger upcoming drops, detailing reasons why it is not always correct to grab the player wih the highest "value", etc.

 

I'm just curious what other methods people may use, if they use them at all, to help determine value across different positions.

[Big Country]

I know this isn't what you're looking for, but there's a bunch of dead fish here, so what the heck...

 

I'm less about value during the draft and more about trying to identify, in advance, players that I think are significantly undervalued... and then reaching for them.

It doesn't always work, in fact, probably less than half the time but like last year, I thought Benson was a really good candidate and took him about 20 spots earlier than the public generated ADP. By waiting on RB2, that allowed me to move up my other positions by a round. Like this year, I'll be reaching for Michael Bush. I figure it's okay to say that cuz not many will actually read this thread or my post to this point. lol. Also, in some drafts, i'll fill all positions but one (either WR or RB) with the best studs I can get, then take more than a dozen in that one weak positions hoping to get a good shotgun hit.

 

so, instead of focusing on value, like Vince Young with the last pick in the draft, I go more organic.

 

 

To me, the bolded is exactly why determiing value ahead of time is important. Value is not a draft strategy, it is a tool to help develop a strategy IMO. I think I work similar to you in that I use ADP as a way to spot players I think are undervalued.

 

The question was more towards what methods do you use to determine that value so you know what to look for when studying ADP and watching the trends in your drafts as they develop?

[3rd and schlong]

Well I mainly look at my scoring system and take data from the past three seasons to kind of "project" how many poins someone will score. Then look for the positions which have big diffrences between the top and the middle. Then try to target the players at the top of those, and then compare my data to ADP (i use ffcalculator) to find out which players that I think I can get a value on.

[Company of Heroes]

To me, the bolded is exactly why determiing value ahead of time is important. Value is not a draft strategy, it is a tool to help develop a strategy IMO. I think I work similar to you in that I use ADP as a way to spot players I think are undervalued.

 

The question was more towards what methods do you use to determine that value so you know what to look for when studying ADP and watching the trends in your drafts as they develop?

 

I don't have the time to develop my own projections or rankings, which is why I'm a member of the Huddle. However, I do use ADP (from several sites this year) to identify players that may be value/sleepers and need further evaluation. When I identify a value player, I then use ADP data to determine when I need to take them vs. when they are likely to be taken. As just an example, Zach Miller and Devin Thomas are rated by the Huddle way better than their ADP. I can usually take both much later in the draft than would be warranted by the Huddle rating alone. (You may not agree that either are value, but the method is still the same).

 

By having a spreadsheet that includes my top200 player ranking (regardless of position) and the round I need to take them in (from ADP), there is always value to be had. It seems to work reasonably well in mocks so far. The worst thing is to miss on those sleepers because you try to wait too long. Using several sites ADP data helps avoid this most of the time.

 

As a side note, do you consider a middle draft spot better for utilizing this value approach? You would think picking in the middle would let you take advantage of value more regularly. I get to chose my draft spot in one league between spot #4 or #6. I am leaning #6 because of this value drafting approach and because I am comfortable with Gore/AJ as my first pick.

[Big Country]

As a side note, do you consider a middle draft spot better for utilizing this value approach? You would think picking in the middle would let you take advantage of value more regularly. I get to chose my draft spot in one league between spot #4 or #6. I am leaning #6 because of this value drafting approach and because I am comfortable with Gore/AJ as my first pick.

 

 

I agree with the uncopied pieces, but wanted to focus on this.

 

 

I think it has merit from all draft spots, but it a little easier to apply from the middle picks, as you have to estimate what will be taken between your next picks for fewer picks on average, ie you don;t have to plan out what is going to happen for a 20 pick run between your picks. One thing that I (big props to my WCOFF partners for this) did more of last year was study ADP, make lists of who the most likely players would be available at each of my picks, and that allowed me to better plan a way to build my team during the draft as well as know when I had to reach for a player I really liked. One lesson learned was that if there is a guy you think is way undervalued in ADP,. don;t be afraid to take him 1 or even 2 rounds ahead of his ADP if you want to be sure to get him. Got bitten a few too many times trying to be cute and wait for a guy to slip an extra round since his ADP was a bit lower.