Advice Article: PDT

[delusions of grandeur]

There's been alot of talk in recent years about going into a draft with a specific positional gameplan, such as WR/WR.. But in my experience, I've only found it to be counter-productive to focus on one position, without recognizing the best value and identifying where I can address other positions of need, as well as where I might end up with weak spots by waiting. In turn, I will be advocating an opposite type of strategy I plan to use this year, positional diversity.

 

This is in response to Big Country's thread about Methods for Determining Value, which had very good points from everyone about value/undervalue and positional scarcity. Just like any of BC's posts, it is a must read for good advice...

 

For one, see the idea of "worst starter" as a good method of determining weak points.

 

 

I tried to use a similar idea here with this list of my top 50, minus the rookies (who you almost just have to rank according to personal feel). I originally worked this out just for my own use, but it actually ended up showing a point of multi-positional dropoff pretty well, and provided some interesting results to think about.

 

Leaving the specific rankings aside (which can be adjusted according to preference and scoring/lineups), the idea here was to try to rank my top 50 overall players (focusing on potential runs on a position, scarcity, percieved "value") to then see who is left over after these 3-5 rounds to choose from, compared to the ones that were chosen.

 

 

First, here's the breakdown of how many were taken per position:

 

20 RBs (not surprisingly), 17 WRs, 7 QBs, 6 TEs

 

 

This breakdown actually does show the dropoff at the positions fairly accurately (being oppositely correlated to how many were taken/available), as you look at the best remaining at each position after the top 50 are gone:

 

RB: Addai, R. Brown, B. Jacobs, R. Bush

 

WR: Nicks, Simms-Walker, Welker, Bowe

 

QB: Cutler, Kolb, Ryan, Flacco

 

TE: Gonzalez, Daniels, Cooley, Shiancoe

 

 

Really, aside from a fairly sizeable drop-off at RB, there are still some plenty quality players available at every position... But when compared to the guys on the top 50 list, there does appear to be a pretty decent dropoff at all positions here between the very good and the "let's hope they're good" type guys.

 

So aside from this reinforcing my usual strategy of solidifying my RBs and WRs early (and even wait to double up on QBs or TEs late, unless they present extraordinary draft value), this might just be the year where I really go for positional diversity with my first 4 picks... I think a team with at least 1 of these top 50 guys at ALL 4 positions could put you in a really nice situation compared to everyone else who might end up with some big holes by waiting.

 

 

And this is just for the first 4-5 picks of a 10-12 man league. For a 16 team setup, you would add 14 more players (64) into just the first 4 rounds, and this would seem to make positional scarcity even more of a factor for all positions, even in the first few rounds.

 

I know that this strategy cannot replace draft flexibility, but perhaps can go hand-in-hand in identifying/avoiding drop-offs at all positions-of-need... However, one question does remain here:

 

Is it better to be balanced or to use your strengths to outweigh any weaker positions? Thoughts?

[delusions of grandeur]

One problem with NOT being balanced is then your league mates will have a pretty good chance at guessing what position you're going with next and snipe the player you're targetting.

 

Very good point. And in addition to helping with unpredictability, it can also help allow you to more comfortably jump on BPAs at any position of choice after that.

 

Particularly if picking in the middle where you have a comfortable amount of time between picks, it could really allow you to jump on value with your #1's all locked up.

Edited July 28, 2010 by delusions of granduer

[Big Country]

Good read delusions.

 

Oddly enough this is what my group ended up doing a WCOFF last year, and it worked out well until injury (DWill), suspension (Bowe) and underperformance (Wayne) all converged in our playoff weeks.

 

But, the way our draft fell out from the 7th spot, we ended up with DWill, Wayne, Gates and Rodgers in the first 4 rounds.