How's my draft strategy?

[injendsm]

New guy here with a somewhat length first post. I was hoping to get some insight on my draft strategy for the league I'm taking part in at work. This is the third year of this league and it's an 8 team PPR league. The positions are 2 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, WR/RB, TE, K, D/ST, D, & 8 bench spots. The points available are:

 

1 point per completion; 25 yds per point; 5 points at 300 yds, 7 points at 400 yds, 10 at 500 yds.

5 points for a passing TD (although that's likely to change to 6).

-1 per pick.

 

1 point per carry; 10 yds per point; 5 points at 150 yds, 7 points at 175 yds, 10 points at 200 yds.

6 points for a rushing TD

 

1 point per reception; 10 yds per point; same yard bonuses as RB.

 

6 points for return TD; 2 points for 2PCV, -2 points for fumble, 6 points for offensive fumble return TD.

 

The points available for K, D/ST, D are pretty standard, with the exception of 1 point for every 20 return yards, but I'll be drafting those positions with the final 3 picks of the draft so I'm not as concerned about them. Fractional points are also a part of the point system which has me curious about something.

 

With fractional points, 1 yard would be the equivalent of .1 points. With QB's not getting a point on yards until they throw for 25 yards, a 25 yard completion should then equal 3.5 points instead of just the 1 for 25 yards. Is that correct? I'm thinking 25 x .01= 2.5 + 1= 3.5. If that's the case, QB's are without a doubt the highest point producing players available. Nine of the top ten offensive players in terms of overall points last year were QB's in our league. Because of that, and the draft tendencies of my league mates, I'm seriously considering drafting a QB in the first round instead of a RB like I normally would depending on what pick I have.

 

The main tendency the people in my league seem to have is drafting their players in order as though they were looking at the roster the way Yahoo would show it (ie; QB, WR, WR, RB,...). The first year we played, 4 QB's were taken in the first round and 6 were taken in the first round last year.

 

My current strategy is to go with the best QB/RB I can get in the first and second rounds based on my value system (average of their fantasy points per game over the span of a couple of years). In the third, I'm planning on going with another QB, unless Andre Johnson is available; which is entirely possible because he's never gone higher than the third. However, an elite QB should consistently outproduce him so I'm leaning toward that option. The fourth round would be used to get another top back for my RB2 spot. I'd pick up a WR in the fifth. TE's normally don't go until the 7th in this league so I'm thinking about picking up Dallas Clark in the sixth to not only get a solid producing TE, but to entice the others to follow suit and draft TE's while I snag another back in the seventh. I'd pick up the WR2 & WR3 in the eight and ninth rounds and pick up a QB3 in the tenth. After that, I'd bolster my bench with solid backups and, as mentioned earlier, use the final 3 picks for my kicker, defense, and defensive player.

 

My ultimate goal is to have a team that can put up 260 or more points as consistently as possible.The guy who won it all last year had a team that averaged 229 per game. We only had 1 QB starting last year and no fractional points. Add one more QB to that mix and 260 wouldn't be out of the question.

 

Sorry for the long post but thanks if you've read it all to this point. Does this seem like a viable draft strategy? Thanks for any and all insight.

[injendsm]

Anyone? Any and all advice is truly appreciated and I will respond to it.

[Big Country]

How did the scoring shake out last year (really, over the last 3 years). Just because Qbs were the 9 highest scorers doesn't mean they are the most valuable position, but, since most leagues don't give points per completion or per carry, I am not sure offhand by how much the QBs are outscoring the other positions. If it is significant, then definitely grab an early QB and pray you hit on the guy that way outperforms his draft position, as it becomes a league of whose QB goes off for more than the other. (I got roped into a league like this last minute last year with some college friends.. QBs literally would put up about 2/3rds of a teams total points each week.. bad QB week, you lose, good QB week, you win). If the QBs are just barely outperforming the other positions, then load up elsewhere and grab the 8th or 9th QB off the board knowing that you are likely to more than make up the ground lost at QB by having the advantage at the other spots, but you have to analyze the last few years worth of scoring to determine if this is how the scoring shakes out.

[delusions of grandeur]

I really don't have any better advice than what BC said, other than be flexible, and try to beat the dropoffs at all of your positions of need. With liberal points for completions, you might even be able to wait a little longer for your second QB, but again, just go with the flow of the draft, and don't forget about filling other important positions besides QB too.

 

Only one thing I'll clarify. Marginal points work like this. 1point divided by 10 points = .1... Since for QBs it takes 25 yards per 1 point, then you use the same fraction 1/25 = .04. If it worked according to your math, then QB yardage would not be deflated (as it should be). You'd have a situation where QB would be even more heavy than it already is in a 2 QB format with 1 PPC.

[injendsm]

How did the scoring shake out last year (really, over the last 3 years). Just because Qbs were the 9 highest scorers doesn't mean they are the most valuable position, but, since most leagues don't give points per completion or per carry, I am not sure offhand by how much the QBs are outscoring the other positions. If it is significant, then definitely grab an early QB and pray you hit on the guy that way outperforms his draft position, as it becomes a league of whose QB goes off for more than the other. (I got roped into a league like this last minute last year with some college friends.. QBs literally would put up about 2/3rds of a teams total points each week.. bad QB week, you lose, good QB week, you win). If the QBs are just barely outperforming the other positions, then load up elsewhere and grab the 8th or 9th QB off the board knowing that you are likely to more than make up the ground lost at QB by having the advantage at the other spots, but you have to analyze the last few years worth of scoring to determine if this is how the scoring shakes out.

 

How did it work out as far as overall team scoring or scoring per position? The top 3 QB's (Schaub, Rodgers, & Peyton) averaged roughly 50 points per game while the closest RB, CJ, averaged about the same. However, I'm not sure he's going to be able to put up the same numbers this year. I'm expecting low 40's per for him. After him, the closest non-QB's were MJD & AP, both of whom averaged 40 points per game. Obviously, a 10 point difference isn't a huge difference, but I figure if I'm able to pick up Schaub & Flacco, they may be able to provide me with more points than Ray Rice and a 6-10 QB. I see what you're saying about loading up at the other positions, though, and that makes sense. RB's make the next most points so I'm thinking about grabbing a back from a team who's going to rush a decent amount (Matthews or Greene) in the second or third round. Thanks for the input.

[injendsm]

I really don't have any better advice than what BC said, other than be flexible, and try to beat the dropoffs at all of your positions of need. With liberal points for completions, you might even be able to wait a little longer for your second QB, but again, just go with the flow of the draft, and don't forget about filling other important positions besides QB too.

 

Only one thing I'll clarify. Marginal points work like this. 1point divided by 10 points = .1... Since for QBs it takes 25 yards per 1 point, then you use the same fraction 1/25 = .04. If it worked according to your math, then QB yardage would not be deflated (as it should be). You'd have a situation where QB would be even more heavy than it already is in a 2 QB format with 1 PPC.

 

Ok, that makes sense. We had fractional points the first year we did it, but I couldn't remember entirely how it worked out. I think QB & RB are the two most important spots so I'm planning to load up on them in the first four or five rounds. Outside of the top WR's, everyone seems to be fairly close in terms of ability to put up points & I don't think I'll have a problem getting my ideal receivers (Hakeem Nicks & Malcom Floyd) in the 7th & 8th rounds. Thanks, as well, for your input.