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Thursday nights wagers


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here is some analysis from a handicapping site on the Clemson game.


Clemson +1.5


The Clemson Tigers, 4-3 (2-2 ACC), will be playing their third nationally televised game this year. Thus far, they are 0-2, with losses to Georgia and Florida State, both away from Death Valley, where they are 4-0 in 2002. North Carolina State comes in undefeated, 8-0 (3-0 ACC), but are only ranked 12th in the polls and 11th in the BCS standings. Taking a look at the stats, NC State has a big advantage in offense, while the teams are pretty equal in defense. The Wolfpack are 23rd in total offense, averaging 421 ypg and are 6th in scoring offense, averaging 41 ppg. Looking into these numbers further and the competition they have faced shows these numbers are inflated. Their schedule ranks 112th by Jeff Sagarin and 85th by Kenneth Massey, both components and contributors to the BCS rankings. Going off of Sagarin rankings and total defense, this is the breakdown of the teams they have faced: New Mexico (84th Sagarin, 66th total defense), East Tennessee St. - 1-AA (148th Sagarin), Navy (132nd Sagarin, 105th total defense), Wake Forest (53rd Sagarin, 65th total defense), Texas Tech (24th Sagarin, 94th total defense), UMass – 1-AA (96th Sagarin), North Carolina (62nd Sagarin, 103rd total defense) and Duke (90th Sagarin, 51st total defense). The best rated team is Texas Tech, who they struggled with in overtime, and the best defense faced was Duke, who they struggled with last week. On the contrary, Clemson’s schedule is ranked 12th by Sagarin and ranked 16th by Massey. Even with the more difficult schedule, Clemson and NC State are similar in total defense. Clemson is ranked 21st, allowing 317 ypg and 4.6 ypp, while NC State is ranked 17th, allowing 311 ypg and 4.4 ypp. The Tigers are allowing 23 ppg and the Wolfpack are allowing 20 ppg. They are back to back in turnover margin – NC State at +.75 and Clemson at +.71. NC State people are balking over their low BCS ranking, but the ranking is certainly justified. This is the start of their real schedule with Georgia Tech, Maryland, Virginia and Florida St. up next. If they can win out, they deserve to be in one of the top games, but that has yet to be determined. This is taking nothing away from what the coaching staff has accomplished or Philip Rivers’ ability, but until they defeat a legitimate top team, they should not be favored in a place like Death Valley on a Thursday night. Clemson had been in the spotlight twice on the road, but now they shift it home and will get the backing here.

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