Fantasy Analysis 2005 Draft 1st Round

[THE SIX KINGS]

How will the top picks in the 2005 NFL Draft affect your fantasy strategy? We fully review the first round from a fantasy perspective, and also offer insight on skill position picks from the second round.

 

1. Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco: He doesn't project to be a fantasy superstar, but he'll be very solid, because he's smart, makes great reads and is mechanically and technically sound. Will have to adjust to more complex schemes in the pros and doesn't throw a great deep ball, but he's a solid keeper pick who should be a quality fantasy starter by his third or fourth pro season. Not worth anything more than a late-rounder in yearly leagues, but has great intangibles and will be very dependable when he is fully acclimated to the NFL. Future fantasy comparison: In terms of purely statistical output, he could be close to Jeff Garcia during his best years with the 49ers.

 

2.Ronnie Brown, RB, Miami: The newest Fin could quickly become a fine all-around performer. Brown's excellent pass-catching skills immediately make him a very enticing fantasy selection. He could be overworked a bit initially if Miami doesn't surround him with more offensive talent. But Brown definitely will be a first-year success, even if extra defensive attention means he might be a bit statistically inconsistent. In his first year, he's a definite standout No. 2 fantasy RB with the ability to be a good No. 1 fantasy back when Miami surrounds him with some better talent. Look for him to be a fantasy workhorse who gets a lot of touches. In terms of statistics, he could end up being the most productive all-around RB in this draft in a few years. He's versatile and has great numerical promise. In 2005, he projects to be a good late second-round pick for yearly leagues. Future fantasy comparison: Durability is a concern, but he eventually could produce rushing/receiving numbers much like Marshall Faulk did in his best years.

 

3. Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland: The most explosive receiver and potentially the biggest fantasy superstar to come out of this draft. He needs some work on his techniques and route running, so he might disppear for some stretches in his first year. But he should have some big games in his first NFL campaign. Edwards has great leaping ability and body control, and can consistently get open for big plays. In a few years, Edwards could easily be a top five fantasy wideout. He will combine with Antonio Bryant to give the Browns two very productive playmakers for years to come. Working with a veteran like Trent Dilfer will mean Edwards should get the ball for some important TD catches right away. An experienced player like Dilfer will get him the ball where he needs and wants it without much trouble. Edwards won't be a No. 1 fantasy receiver right away, but he's a good pick in the sixth or seventh round in yearly leagues. He's a top pick in keeper drafts. Future fantasy comparison: He could face some extra defensive attention initially, but when he fully blossoms, he should definitely produce Chad Johnson-type numbers, and maybe even a bit better.

 

4. Cedric Benson, RB, Chicago: He's a tough inside runner with a lot of promise as a fantasy TD producer. Benson is tough to bring down, and should be a top-notch presence near the goal line. Benson will wear defenses down, will get a lot of carries, and his fantasy owners will be very satisfied with his amount of touches. Benson doesn't have great speed, but he can break tackles in the open field and use his quickness to pull away for some long gainers. Fantasy owners love a red-zone standout, and they will love Benson. He might initially split some reps with Thomas Jones, however, so he doesn't project to be a No. 1 fantasy RB immediately. Eventually, though, Benson will be the only important RB in Chicago, as soon as his second year. He's a great third-rounder in yearly fantasy drafts, and a very safe early pick in keeper leagues. Future fantasy comparison: He will be what Stephen Davis could have been if he stayed healthy more often. Davis rushed for 28 total TDs in 1999 and 2000. Benson will be very comparable in his NFL prime.

 

5. Carnell Williams, RB, Tampa Bay: He has the abilities to be the most explosive RB coming out of this year's rookie class. Williams has great vision, amazing cutback moves and thrilling big-play ability. He is a better pass receiver than advertised and will be a fantasy standout when he's in the lineup. There are some questions about whether he can be durable and take the pounding of a feature back at the NFL level. Williams is the most promising runner of any, but he also looks to be the biggest risk of the top three RBs picked, at least initially. Williams is a great third-round pick in yearly leagues, and while he's not a top keeper pick, he's very close to it. Look for Michael Pittman to quickly drop out of Tampa Bay's RB picture if Williams proves he can handle a regular load. Future fantasy comparison: Some experts have compared him to Priest Holmes. But in fantasy/numerical terms, he could be another Fred Taylor, with a bit more TD production.

 

6. Adam Jones, CB, Tennessee: Last year, the Titans' defense ranked 25th in FFL production. A rookie can't help them too much right away from a fantasy perspective, but he should start to help the unit cut down on big plays allowed in a few years.

 

7. Troy Williamson, WR, Minnesota: Williamson has amazing speed and separation gear. Williamson will be a fine complement to Nate Burleson eventually, and Daunte Culpepper will hook up with him often in a few years. But for now, he needs to work on his route running, and he will have a lot of work ahead of him as he learns to deal with the physical coverages of NFL cornerbacks. Williamson seems to get faster with every step he takes. And he could have some flashes of great promise. He and Burleson, though, are a bit of a project as a No. 1 and 2 receiving duo. Williamson is a good pick in the ninth or 10th round of 2005 FFL drafts, and he has much better keeper value than yearly league appeal for now. Future fantasy comparison: He could be what Joey Galloway never quite was, and promised to be early in his career with Seattle. Imagine a healthy, focused Galloway, and you'll have Williamson in a few years.

 

8. Antrell Rolle, CB, Arizona: The Cardinals' defense is improving as a fantasy unit, and Rolle is a tough corner who adds more in physical ability and potential to create turnovers. He should become a productive CB in individual defender leagues, most likely by his second year.

 

9. Carlos Rogers, CB, Washington: He'll keep the Redskins solid against the pass. In two years, the unit should rise toward the top 10 again of defensive/special teams selections.

 

10. Mike Williams, WR, Detroit: He gives the Lions another possible superstar receiver, and clouds the Detroit receiver picture a bit from a fantasy perspective. Will there be enough passes to go around between Mike Williams, Roy Williams and Charles Rogers? But Rogers has had trouble staying healthy, so Williams is great insurance. Williams won't explode past pro CBs for long bombs, but he's very difficult to cover one-on-one, and he is a fine big target who should score often in the red zone. When Jeff Garcia takes the starting job, he'll make sure he finds Williams for a healthy amount of scores. Williams is a good seventh or eighth round pick in yearly leagues. He will be a dependable TD presence in keeper formats. Future fantasy comparison: Picture Keyshawn Johnson actually catching scoring passes often.

 

11. Demarcus Ware, DE, Dallas: The Cowboys were the 29th-ranked FFL defense last year. Ware will help the Cowboys get back to fantasy defensive respectability in two years, if not sooner, as a pass-rushing DE/OLB.

 

12.Shawne Merriman, OLB, San Diego: He eventually will make the Chargers a better unit in terms of sacks, although his presence might not be felt immediately. He has a lot of upside, and makes the unit more promising from a keeper perspective.

 

13. Jammal Brown, OT, New Orleans: Good pass blocker, but needs to improve his run techniques. He solidifies the line, but doesn't ensure that Aaron Brooks will become any more consistent. Brooks needs to make better reads and decisions to truly improve.

 

14. Thomas Davis, OLB/S, Carolina: A hard hitter and intimidating playmaker, no matter what position he plays. He's a great prospect for individual defender leagues. Fits in well with a unit that could rise from No. 14 overall in FFL leagues next year.

 

15. Derrick Johnson, OLB/S, Kansas City: The Chiefs fill an obvious need and Johnson will initially make a lot of plays, which makes him a very nifty individual defender league pick, even in his first year. The defense should begin to look less vulnerable next year, but still won't be a starting fantasy unit yet.

 

16. Travis Johnson, DT, Houston: This team is building toward being better on defense, and with Johnson and CB Dunta Robinson as the last two No. 1 picks, the future looks good for this unit.

 

17. David Pollack, DE, Cincinnati: Did you realize the Bengals had the eighth-ranked FFL defense last year? Not everyone is aware of how good this unit is becoming, and Pollack, who has a great motor, makes them good in the long term as well.

 

18. Erasmus James, DE, Minnesota: The Vikings could be the most improved FFL defense in 2005, and adding James only helps a now-healthy outlook.

 

19. Alex Barron, OT, St. Louis: He needs work on his techniques, and early on, he won't help improve St. Louis' pass blocking too much. Not an impact pick from a fantasy vantage point.

 

20. Marcus Spears, DE, Dallas: Along with Ware, the Cowboys now have the basis for a great front seven for years to come. This unit should be back in the top 12 of FFL defenses in two years' time.

 

21. Matt Jones, WR, Jacksonville: He is a very interesting choice, who has the natural skills to become an important playmaker and quality fantasy starter in a few years. While he needs more experience actually playing at wide receiver, his experience at quarterback will help him grasp the nuances of the position a bit quicker. He's a fine keeper prospect, but he might not show us much statistically in his first year. Don't pick him until the final rounds, unless you're in a keeper league. Future fantasy comparison: Like Drew Bennett, he's a big receiver who might eventually bust out to put up impressive numbers.

 

22. Mark Clayton, WR, Baltimore: Other than Edwards, he could be the best receiver in this year's class and he's definitely the most polished. He runs great routes, is very smart, and can get open to make big plays. He has great hands and is not afraid of contact. He'll go over the middle, and is willing to take a big hit and bounce back. There are some concerns about his height, but Clayton will quiet them very early in his career. He'll learn a lot from Derrick Mason, who is of similar size. Clayton will be a great late-round value pick in yearly leagues, and he's a very promising keeper choice. Future fantasy comparison: There already have been comparisons to Marvin Harrison. He could become another Isaac Bruce from a statistical view.

 

23. Fabian Washington, CB, Oakland: Will provide much-needed help in coverage, but not a physical presence, and won't project well in individual defender leagues. Oakland still has a ways to go to improve on defense.

 

24. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay: The perfect spot for Rodgers to land. He needs to work on his mechanics and will have to learn a lot about making reads at the NFL level. But there is no one better for him to gain knowledge from than Brett Favre. Rodgers throws a pretty deep ball, and is poised and confident in the pocket. He's obviously not ready to be used (and should not be drafted) in yearly fantasy leagues, but the fact that he can take the time to polish his mechanics and learn the pro game from one of the best ever at his position makes him a solid keeper pick. Future fantasy comparison: Look for Rodgers to eventually become a proficient pocket passer, much like Drew Bledsoe was during his best days.

 

25. Jason Campbell, QB, Washington: He has a lot of upside from a fantasy perspective. While he might need two to three years to become a seasoned pro, Campbell has the skills to actually become the best fantasy QB from this draft. He's accurate and mobile, and throws well on the run. He has good timing and while he doesn't have tremendous arm strength, he's very athletic and makes good reads. Campbell is a very good keeper prospect who could become an above-average fantasy starter by his third or fourth NFL campiagn. Future fantasy comparison: Once he is comfortable at the NFL level, Campbell could produce numbers similar to what a healthy Steve McNair used to deliver.

 

26. Chris Spencer, C, Seattle: Matt Hasselbeck gets improved protection. A slight upgrade for the passing game. Hasselbeck should continue to improve with some more time to throw.

 

27. Roddy White, WR, Atlanta: He fills a big need for the Falcons, who will work well with Michael Vick. White is a legitimate downfield threat who can adjust well when Vick breaks the pocket and looks for him downfield. He needs some work on his shorter routes, but White could make his presence felt instantly as Vick's best deep threat. He might produce very well for a late first-rounder, and is a good choice in the later round in yearly leagues. Future fantasy comparison: He could eventually become a consistent playmaker who could post numbers similar to what Donald Driver delivered in two of the last three years.

 

28. Luis Castillo, DT, San Diego: Another piece in place to help the Chargers improve, he could make a quicker impact than Merriman. The two form a great foundation for the unit as a keeper defense, and the team should produce much better FFL defensive totals in two years' time.

 

29. Marlin Jackson, CB, Indianapolis: The Colts finished sixth among FFL defenses last year. Adding a physical cover guy could mean fewer big plays allowed, which is very good for the unit's outlook.

 

30. Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh: He has great hands, runs good routes and can make things happen after the catch. Miller becomes the safety valve and important down option for Ben Roethlisberger and adds further balance to the passing game. If he can erase concerns about recent hernia surgery, he instantly can become a top 10 fantasy tight end. He's a fine fantasy choice when the elite tight ends are off the board, and he could join them soon. Future fantasy comparison: He'll be a versatile threat, and has has already been linked to Jason Witten by some experts.

 

31. Mike Patterson, DT, Philadelphia: He'll fit in well with the Eagles and will help them remain a top unit, as he adds in his flair for forcing turnovers.

 

32. Logan Mankins, G, New England: A fine drive blocker who will ensure that New England's offense will continue to run smoothly.

 

Round Two

 

35. Reggie Brown, WR, Philadelphia: Has some promise as a second receiver for the Eagles. Durability is an issue, though.

 

39. Mark Bradley, WR, Chicago: Excellent concentration and hands. Needs work on techniques, though, and isn't a good yearly league selection. But he's a fine keeper prospect.

 

44. J.J. Arrington, RB, Arizona: He has big-play ability, and he is very tough for a smaller RB. He is worth a late-round pick in yearly leagues, and should at least become a good "flex" player.

 

47. Mike Nugent, K, New York Jets: Great accuracy, and could be an elite fantasy player at his position for many years. But you still shouldn't draft any kicker in fantasy leagues until the final rounds.

 

54. Eric Shelton, RB, Carolina: He's a strong inside runner who could end up being the featured back for a team that has some question marks at RB. He has good vision and could become a very dependable, but not oustanding fantasy RB who scores often. Shelton could be a good bargain pick in the late rounds of your 2005 draft.

 

55. Roscoe Parrish, WR, Buffalo: A big-play threat who projects to be a dangerous slot receiver at the NFL level. He adds another dimension to the Buffalo passing game, but he likely won't consistently contribute statistically. It might be a surprise if he becomes anything more than a fantasy reserve.

 

58. Terrence Murphy, WR, Green Bay: He does have the potential to be a good downfield threat, and could become a quality No. 2 receiver for the Packers. He's worth a late-round gamble in yearly leagues, and he certainly is a very appealing keeper-league selection.

 

61. Vincent Jackson, WR, San Diego: He is a big, athletic receiver who can make difficult catches. Jackson does need some work on techniques, but he could blossom into a reliable fantasy starter in a few years. He's only worth a fantasy draft pick in keeper leagues.

 

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[Chargerz]

Thanks for the info. I love reading NFL draft analysis. The comments about the Bolts picks are right on!!

[broncosn05]

Just printed this out thanks

[Ursa Majoris]

Stopped reading at this point:

 

#4 Cedric Benson

 

Benson doesn't have great speed, but he can break tackles in the open field and use his quickness to pull away for some long gainers.

 

So, he doesn't have great speed but his quickness....... OK, gotcha.

[Sam]

Stopped reading at this point:

 

#4 Cedric Benson

So, he doesn't have great speed but his quickness....... OK, gotcha.  

 

793840[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

You don't think you can have one without the other?

 

Nice Avi Kings.

 

Edit: I re-read the quote....I now see what you're saying.

Edited April 26, 2005 by Sam

[Jackass]

seems a bit overly optimistic. mark clayton could be the next marvin harrison, jason campbell could be the next steve mcnair, etc....