keggerz Posted July 7, 2010 Share Posted July 7, 2010 In fantasy football we are looking for the highest scoring RBs that we can find and once we find them we (dynasty league owners) we want to keep them as long as we can...with that said RBBC has become rampant and that is because the NFL wants to keep their backs effective and or to have specialist for particular situations etc....so that got me to thinking about looking at some stats and splits that might help to show a RBs "effectiveness"...YPC has always been a strong indicator with regards to RB effectiveness so I figured I would start there and take a look at carries 1-10 vs all other carries and then also looked at splits from 1st half vs 2nd half YPC...so here you go Note this is a .5 PPR ranking of the top 12 RBs last year: (Order of fantasy ranking LY) Chris Johnson YPC (carries 1-10).....6.1 YPC (11+)...................5.3 YPC 1st Half...............5.6 YPC 2nd Half..............5.7 Adrian Peterson YPC (carries 1-10).........4.0 YPC (11+)........................4.6 YPC 1st Half....................4.2 YPC 2nd Half...................4.5 Maurice Jones-Drew YPC (carries 1-10).........5.2 YPC (11+)........................3.8 YPC 1st Half....................4.8 YPC 2nd Half...................4.1 Ray Rice YPC (carries 1-10)...........6.1 YPC (11+)..........................4.3 YPC 1st Half......................6.0 YPC 2nd Half.....................4.9 Frank Gore YPC (carries 1-10)...........5.0 YPC (11+)..........................4.7 YPC 1st Half......................5.5 YPC 2nd Half.....................4.3 Thomas Jones YPC (carries 1-10)...........3.7 YPC (11+)..........................4.4 YPC 1st Half.....................4.0 YPC 2nd Half.....................4.1 Ricky Williams YPC (carries 1-10)...........4.7 YPC (11+)..........................4.7 YPC 1st Half......................4.5 YPC 2nd Half.....................4.8 Joseph Addai YPC (carries 1-10)...........4.1 YPC (11+)..........................3.8 YPC 1st Half......................3.8 YPC 2nd Half.....................4.0 Ryan Grant YPC (carries 1-10)..........4.7 YPC (11+).........................4.3 YPC 1st Half.....................4.6 YPC 2nd Half....................4.4 Steven Jackson YPC (carries 1-10)...........4.4 YPC (11+)...........................4.4 YPC 1st Half.......................4.3 YPC 2nd Half......................4.5 Jamaal Charles YPC (carries 1-10)...........5.8 YPC (11+)..........................6.1 YPC 1st Half.....................5.8 YPC 2nd Half....................6.0 Jonathan Stewart YPC (carries 1-10)...........4.8 YPC (11+)..........................5.7 YPC 1st Half......................4.8 YPC 2nd Half.....................5.5 *NOTE: The reason for the 1-10 split vs 11+ is because NFL.com lists carries in splits of 1-10, 11-20, 21-30 & 31+....the reason I combined 11+ is because so few backs had 21-30 and 31+ carries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted July 7, 2010 Share Posted July 7, 2010 (edited) It's always nice to see a post like this from Keggerz. You know he's going to have the numbers to back up any arguement he has. Looking at the stats, this almost feels like our old MJD debate, Keggerz. I think some factors have to be figured into this. One, how good is the team the RB is on. In theory, the worse the team the better the YPC should be as the game wears on. They will probably be down, so the opposing D will be playing the pass, and giving up yards on the ground. Another factor is the type of back the player is. Historiclly, power backs tend to get better as the game wears on, or at least the opposing D gets tired as the game wears on. Your stats have me a bit concerned about MJD. While I love what he can do, that team just doesn't scare anyone. I was huge on MJD last year, as most know, but going into this year I'm not quite as big on him. I rank him at #4, behind CJ, AP and Rice. Edited July 7, 2010 by Capt. Stanky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted July 7, 2010 Share Posted July 7, 2010 Excellent stuff, Keg. Question: wouldn't carries 11+ (and 2nd half carries, since they are likely very similar) be somewhat tainted by the fact that RBs who get alot of 2nd-half carries are likely playing with a lead. And when playing with a lead, opponents realize the winning team is trying to drain the clock, so the defense is likely playing 8-men in the box? Point is, I would expect 2nd half YPC to be lower than 1st half YPC for players that play for winning teams, due to the above. On the other hand, players like Charles, Stewart, Jackson, etc get the benefit of the run still being a surprise, and thus, its executed with greater success. Draw plays, for example, when the defense is expecting a pass, can pick up large chunks of real estate. just a hunch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 8, 2010 Author Share Posted July 8, 2010 (edited) Excellent stuff, Keg. Question: wouldn't carries 11+ (and 2nd half carries, since they are likely very similar) be somewhat tainted by the fact that RBs who get alot of 2nd-half carries are likely playing with a lead. And when playing with a lead, opponents realize the winning team is trying to drain the clock, so the defense is likely playing 8-men in the box? Point is, I would expect 2nd half YPC to be lower than 1st half YPC for players that play for winning teams, due to the above. On the other hand, players like Charles, Stewart, Jackson, etc get the benefit of the run still being a surprise, and thus, its executed with greater success. Draw plays, for example, when the defense is expecting a pass, can pick up large chunks of real estate. just a hunch. that metric is available and I should have plenty of time over the next 7-14 days ( due to surgery to remove a kidney stone today @ 1:30) to update the thread with it. EDIT: If I post crazy stuff blame the meds I will be on Edited July 8, 2010 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 8, 2010 Author Share Posted July 8, 2010 It's always nice to see a post like this from Keggerz. You know he's going to have the numbers to back up any arguement he has. Looking at the stats, this almost feels like our old MJD debate, Keggerz. I think some factors have to be figured into this. One, how good is the team the RB is on. In theory, the worse the team the better the YPC should be as the game wears on. They will probably be down, so the opposing D will be playing the pass, and giving up yards on the ground. Another factor is the type of back the player is. Historiclly, power backs tend to get better as the game wears on, or at least the opposing D gets tired as the game wears on. Your stats have me a bit concerned about MJD. While I love what he can do, that team just doesn't scare anyone. I was huge on MJD last year, as most know, but going into this year I'm not quite as big on him. I rank him at #4, behind CJ, AP and Rice. Thanks and you know me I am always looking at stuff and trying to find metrics that might give some additional help for decision making. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted July 8, 2010 Share Posted July 8, 2010 due to surgery to remove a kidney stone today @ 1:30 EDIT: If I post crazy stuff blame the meds I will be on best of luck with that...my wife is dealing with one right now, and is hoping to avoid surgery. Up all night going to the bathroom, never feeling empty, constant nagging pain in lower back. I feel for you, bro! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted July 8, 2010 Share Posted July 8, 2010 All I know is that I got all excited after seeing my boy on this list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrip Posted July 8, 2010 Share Posted July 8, 2010 Makes me want to get my hands on Jamaal Charles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 8, 2010 Share Posted July 8, 2010 All I know is that I got all excited after seeing my boy on this list. all you had to do was say :pantstight: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazinib1 Posted July 8, 2010 Share Posted July 8, 2010 Makes me want to get my hands on Jamaal's Charles. fixed all you had to do was say :pantstight: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted July 8, 2010 Share Posted July 8, 2010 fixed I was going to comment on the Charles thing, but figured I'd leave that softball for someone else to hit... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrip Posted July 8, 2010 Share Posted July 8, 2010 I was going to comment on the Charles thing, but figured I'd leave that softball for someone else to hit... Man, I am on a ROLL today. heh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfer Posted July 9, 2010 Share Posted July 9, 2010 (edited) Maurice Jones-Drew YPC (carries 1-10).........5.2 YPC (11+)........................3.8 YPC 1st Half....................4.8 YPC 2nd Half...................4.1 Running Back Consistency - 2009 Season NAME CON Gms Either TD or 100yd Ray Rice 81% 16 13 Ryan Grant 81% 16 13 Adrian Peterson 81% 16 13 Thomas Jones 81% 16 13 Chris Johnson 81% 16 13 Frank Gore 79% 14 11 Cedric Benson 77% 13 10 Joseph Addai 73% 15 11 Steven Jackson 73% 15 11 Michael Turner 73% 11 8 L. Tomlinson 71% 14 10 M. Jones-Drew 69% 16 11 Running Back Better Than Average-2009 Season NAME BTA Chris Johnson 28 Adrian Peterson 23 Ray Rice 18 Frank Gore 17 MJD 14 Some great articles here and there's no denying MJD has less upside than the other guys in the top 5. Has anything changed in Jax to help his situation in 2010? I think MJD is a really solid pick, a high floor but a lower ceiling than I thought. These numbers don't lie. Edited July 9, 2010 by wolfer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.