rattsass Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 That's what makes FF so much fun. YOu just have to make those gut decisions. The Huddle dropped his ranking extremely and his point projections dropped to 250. That's too extreme, IMO. If CJ is there at #3, take him. I think the point projections are just about spot on right now. He's top 10, but not top 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedo Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Sorry everyone but with him signing it moves him ahead of everyone except AP. Chris Johnson is a super talent and I believe carries the same amount of risk as any other RB. The Titans are not going to put him out there week #1 and give him 40 touches. They will probable give him 20 - haha but anyway, he has the most upside probably of any RB in the draft and with his schedule compared to Baltimore's it outs him at #2 overall for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Sorry everyone but with him signing it moves him ahead of everyone except AP. Chris Johnson is a super talent and I believe carries the same amount of risk as any other RB. The Titans are not going to put him out there week #1 and give him 40 touches. They will probable give him 20 - haha but anyway, he has the most upside probably of any RB in the draft and with his schedule compared to Baltimore's it outs him at #2 overall for me. Not for all of us , I don't have AP @ # 1 Ray Rice LeSean McCoy Jamaal Charles Adrian Peterson Chris Johnson Arian Foster This is based on PPR ( AP would move to # 2 in a non-PPR ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Irish, If Foster's hammy ends up being fine, does that mean it was dumb to downgrade him in drafts this week? Of course not. If DMC ends up being the #1 FF RB, was it dumb to have him as low as he was? No. Each player has pros and cons that dictate where they should be taken. So, something that absolutely had to be taken into account with CJ2K was the fact that he wasn't in camp and sounded like he wanted a contract that was higher than Tenn was going to pay. So, all things being equal, you knock him down a few spots. I mean, it's not like he was being downgraded to scrub status. He was just being pushed down among other would-be elite RBs who has some significant issue hanging on to them. And a holdout this late certainly counts in that category. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 (edited) I think the point projections are just about spot on right now. He's top 10, but not top 3. I guess we'll find out. However, CJ had a down year last year with 316 carries for 1,364 yards and 11 TDs, to go with 44 rec for 245 yards and another TD. That was 276.9 fantasy points which is almost 27 more points than he's projected at now and the Titans also have the easiest schedule for RBs to face this year. So once again, 250 points is way to low in my opinion. I think CJ will end with between 1600-1800 yards, 45-50 rec and 13-15 TDs = 283-320 fantasy points. ETA: 2 years ago he put up incredible numbers approaching 400 total points on the season so he certainly has the upside to post even bigger numbers than I projected above but I was playing it safe. Edited September 1, 2011 by irish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I think the point projections are just about spot on right now. He's top 10, but not top 3. Yeah, I saw the projections here, and I've seen projections on other sites that have him in the top 3. I guess I think a guy who just got paid that much and might not be in game shape strikes me as a risk. But then again, I don't really know if Chris Johnson's work ethic has ever been a question. I've never heard of him as a being a guy who didn't practice, and he doesn't have an injury history to my knowledge. So it really seems to me like the drop off from anyone in the top 3 to CJ is so negligible that you may as well just go with your gut and take the guy that you have the best feeling about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Irish, If Foster's hammy ends up being fine, does that mean it was dumb to downgrade him in drafts this week? Of course not. If DMC ends up being the #1 FF RB, was it dumb to have him as low as he was? No. Each player has pros and cons that dictate where they should be taken. So, something that absolutely had to be taken into account with CJ2K was the fact that he wasn't in camp and sounded like he wanted a contract that was higher than Tenn was going to pay. So, all things being equal, you knock him down a few spots. I mean, it's not like he was being downgraded to scrub status. He was just being pushed down among other would-be elite RBs who has some significant issue hanging on to them. And a holdout this late certainly counts in that category. I understand what you're saying and respect that view of downgraded CJ because of the contract situation. However, a contract situation is different from an injury and I just stuck with my gut that he would sign and that his value shouldn't have dipped at all. In Foster's case, the guy has an injured hammy and there are reports that he could miss anywhere from 1 to several weeks, so hell yeah he should be downgraded. In the end, it's FF, no one knows everything and everyone loves surprises. That's what makes the game so great and also why I stated that it was my opinion and gut reaction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Come on guys just revisit the thread in my sig line and then you know why he is not top 3 even with his signing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Come on guys just revisit the thread in my sig line and then you know why he is not top 3 even with his signing That was fantastic! What a great read! Thanks for sharing as I had missed it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bankerboy Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I guess we'll find out. However, CJ had a down year last year with 316 carries for 1,364 yards and 11 TDs, to go with 44 rec for 245 yards and another TD. That was 276.9 fantasy points which is almost 27 more points than he's projected at now and the Titans also have the easiest schedule for RBs to face this year. So once again, 250 points is way to low in my opinion. I think CJ will end with between 1600-1800 yards, 45-50 rec and 13-15 TDs = 283-320 fantasy points. ETA: 2 years ago he put up incredible numbers approaching 400 total points on the season so he certainly has the upside to post even bigger numbers than I projected above but I was playing it safe. He's got three data points. Last year and 2008 look very similar. 2009 was other-worldy. So which is the "outlier"? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 He's got three data points. Last year and 2008 look very similar. 2009 was other-worldy. So which is the "outlier"? First of all, love the word outlier and teaching my kids in school about them. Secondly, it doesn't really matter, he played 3 years and at the conclusion of all three he bested 250 fantasy points and did it in 2008 despite missing a game and only getting 251 carries. So, I'll say it again, IMO, 250 projected points is too low and shouldn't have dropped because my gut feeling was that he was going to sign and it was right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bankerboy Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 First of all, love the word outlier and teaching my kids in school about them. Secondly, it doesn't really matter, he played 3 years and at the conclusion of all three he bested 250 fantasy points and did it in 2008 despite missing a game and only getting 251 carries. So, I'll say it again, IMO, 250 projected points is too low and shouldn't have dropped because my gut feeling was that he was going to sign and it was right. I agree with you on the point projection completely! I was just poiinting out that last year may not really be a down year, but a good baseline expectation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 CJ back to the #5 RB in the rankings and has now gone from a projection of 250 points to 306. Now that's what I'm talking about and much more like it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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