6pt touchdown pass and 1pt for 20 yards instead of 25

[RipCity]

Also, Follies, thanks for your side of the argument. The back and forth is great. I think we can say that everyone is going to have questionable middle round RB and WR, but here we should be comparing a 1st round top 4-5 RB to the 1st round QB. I imagine that the top 4-5 RB will always be started and the only bust would be an injury.

[keggerz]

Not saying I would take a QB in the first round. But in the 2nd or 3rd I would if I see value there. I read most of the article it is a good read. I still think the bust rate is a big factor. You may want to go with a boom or bust guy your first few round all about your risk tolerance. A lot of this assumes you are hitting on your RB/WR picks. Also a lot of RB and WR 2 and 3's aren't necessarily started every week they often have boom or bust weeks and are borderline starts based on matchup. Your stud QB is an every week player regardless.

 

That's just it, the value isn't there. At best it's perceived value but it's not actual value.

[Big Country]

(Quick edit - sorry this went too long... my mind went to a few different things as I kept typing)

 

I'll try illustrate my point a slightly different way.... it's what I call my shotgun theory, but it is not flushed out fully.

 

But, before I lay that out, I will say that I do agree that it is possible for there to be value available at the QB position in the 2nd/3rd round, it's just that it is rare as it really is not there in a fairly "standard" start 1 QB league with 16 or less teams. Things like 2 QB leagues, QB flexes, points per completion, 1 pt per 10 yard passing - all things that are not standard, do change the equation and push QB values higher (Assuming the remaining positions scoring options and lineup requirements remain fairly "standard")

 

 

Now on to my shotgun theory -

 

Assumption 1 - QBs are a relatively "safe" pick, outside of injury, we can fairly accurately identify who the top 5 QBs are, and probably have a high likelihood of picking 3 or 4 of them correctly at the beginning of the season. It;s the reason that Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Luck and usually Stafford are the consensus top 5 QBs on most sites. However, we can also fairly accurately predict which QBs will be in the 6-12 range, and based on a quick look at historical stats and trends, know that we will experience a relatively minor dropoff in production. In general, a QB in the 6-12 range can be drafted as late as the 8th-10th round (QB6 usually drafted in the 5th-6th range, then 1-2 per round after that)

 

Assumption 2 - RBs (and WRs) are more volatile than QBs, but, outside of injury, we can usually accurately predict 2-3 of the top 5 RBs with preseason predictions, with an RB in the 6-10 range jumping up and maybe one outlier way outperforming predictions (usually due to injury - though, in those cases, one could say the position/team was accurately predicted, but luck, in this case bad luck to the injured player, caused the actual player prediction to be off). The point being that an overwhelming majority of the top 10 RBs will be drafted in the first 2-3 rounds (and, as WRs can last a bit longer, we can say the majority of top 10 WRs will be drafted in the first 3 rounds). We can also state based on study of past stats and trends that the expected dropoff at the RB position (assuming relatively standard scoring system and lineup requirements) is far greater and steeper than the QB position.

 

Now for the shotgun portion of the theory - a shotgun sprays pellets - I'd rather fire my shotgun at the RB/WR position in the first few rounds where I have a far greater chance of hitting on top 10 talent at the position, which provides a far greater value and positional advantage. The farther down I go on RB/WR the far less likelihood I have of hitting on a top 10 talent, whereas with QB, I do have a good likelihood of finding a top 10 talent and also can almost certainly say I have much less of an expected drop in value at the position.

 

 

 

Every year, someone argues things like - but I got Arian Foster in the 9th orund 6 years ago or I got Fred Jackson in the 8th 4 years ago - they fail to mention the other 30 RBs drafted in those 4 rounds that did exactly as expected.... very little. You also hear about the first round bust... no one talks about the first round hit.... because that means the player performed as expected. If you expect a player to peform as a top 5 talent and they do, that is nothing notable. It was expected. Thus, the story of busts proliferate.

 

I relate to bad beat poker stories. How many times have you heard someone tell you a story about how their pocket aces got cracked? Probably a ton of times if you have played any poker. How many times have you heard stories about pocket aces holding up? Very rarely, as that is what is expected. If I were to go from what the stories are, I'd think aces sucked and should not be played. All that to say that the risk of bust is exaggerated.

Edited August 27, 2014 by Big Country

[RipCity]

Thanks guys, I've read the entire article and all of your posts. For my first year of FFB, I will play the percentages and mathematical approach, taking a QB much later than anyone else.

 

With the league I'm playing in dipping into QBs super early, I should have a value advantage. I know it doesn't always work out perfectly, but I'm content with accepting that I should have better value in my team.

[Football Follies]

I do agree with Big Country that usually the best strategy is to wait on QB; however, the OP was about QB weighted leagues which can produce some value in a top QB. I still think not all the variables such as start %, bust rate, etc. are fully integrated into the numbers but generally speaking the best strategy in a standard scoring league is to wait on QB.

 

I was not trying to compare a top 4-5 RB to a 1st round QB I would never take a QB in the 1st round unless the scoring was really odd. I was more talking about the flip side of taking a borderline RB/WR1 or RB/WR2 over a top 3 QB in the 2nd or 3rd round when QB scoring is weighted more heavily.