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Falcons IDP


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Yes, I think the Falcons D this year should be a top-10 unit. There are a couple of reasons for this, but the biggest, IMO, is cornerback DeAngelo Hall. With the new rules in the NFL, a "shut-down" corner is probably a thing of the past, but Hall will be as close as anyone. Last year was a huge learning experience for the youngster, and missing five games with a broken pelvis stunted his growth, somewhat (think Ron Mexico pounding it broke it? - but I digress...)

 

This team has a defensive coach, and if there is such a thing, a defensive general manager. Tony Dungy didn't pick most of those players in Tampa, Rich McKay did. Of course, he picked crappy WR like Reidell Anthony and Jaquez Green, along with Shawn whatshisface from Tulane at QB. He also picked up some pretty good players that some folks thought were done (Simeon Rice) and a bug-eyed, loud-mouthed DT that everyone thought was too small for the NFL. Well, in Atlanta this year, McKay and Mora stayed true-to-form by using 3/4 of their 8 picks on defensive players. Not to mention their biggest free-agent signing being Ed Hartwell, formerly of those defensive slouches up in Baltimurder. I'll break down the unit by its three groups, and then the players within...

 

THE SECONDARY

 

Probably the weakest link in last years team, lapses in the secondary pretty much single-handedly cost the birds the NFC championship game. Injuries to solid players forced the Falcons to literally pick a guy up off the street (#30 Christian Morton - then rookie out of Illinois) and put him in for dime situations. Morton didn't really play all that badly, but got burned on one third-and-long catch by Greg Lewis, which set Filthadelphia up for their clinching TD.

 

DeAngelo Hall and Bryan Scott head up a young and talented secondary. Hall is blazing fast, and Scott is BIG and nearly as fast. The Corey Hall experiment (signing from the Bungles two years ago) was a nearly abysmal failure. He couldn't stay healthy, and while he was a big hitter, he was a liablity in coverage as often as not. Good riddance, Corey, and be glad you aren't in jail for stealing all that money.

 

Scott will be taking over on the strong-side this year, with vets Rich Coady and the steady Kevin McCaddam backing him up. Scott had Lasik surgery in the offseason, and Mora has mentioned it more than once in saying he can tell he breaks on the ball quicker, and he's making fewer trips to the sidelines to have a trainer fix his contacts. To those who's say "pshaw!", I'd say don't underestimate this as it relates to Scott as a productive player. Scott's first year was under Reeves, who is well known for not playing rookies much. Under Wade Phillips the last four games of his rookie season, Scott began to blossom. Last year he had to learn a new system, and the contacts aren't to be underestimated. I'd put him in the "late-round sleeper" category. Optimistically, I'd say five sacks, five picks and maybe 40 tackles. He's one of the rare guys who's production will depend on the Falcon's offense. If they can become more balanced and actually score a little this season, he could easily go north of seven picks, especially playing behind that D-line who's game is pressure and disruption.

 

The free-safety position is up for grabs, but the early favorite is steady vet Keion Carpenter. Ronnie Heard (signed this year as an unrestricted FA from SF) might give him some competition, but Heard is mostly a carrer ST player and backup who was thrust into a starting role by attrition last year in SF. Still, Mora likes the kid and had a hand in his signing as a rookie FA from Ole' Miss five years ago, and he stayed on that team with a couple decent defenses in those years. He might be one to keep an eye on 3-4 games into the season, but I'd stay away from here on draft day unless you're in the 37th round and want to swing for the fences as you're beer-laden draft-mates say "Huh?!"

 

Moving outside, I think DeAngelo Hall could bring great value. I'm not a big IDP guy myself, but I'd put him in the category of that third-year WR who has "breakout" written all over him. Rich McKay was on the Zone (am 790, http://www.790thezone.com, the Falcon's "official sports station") last week talking about the birds plans to put Hall one-on-one in some schemes and let the rest of the defensive backfield play zone. That's some big talk, and McKay is a careful, VERY non-hyperbolic guy, so you can bet they legitimately think that can happen. Like I said, value is the key here. He will probably not be in the top-ten corners taken, but I think he'll produce like that by the end of the year. In keeper leagues his youth bumps his value even more.

 

The other guys listed at corner on the roster are Jason Webster, Kevin Mathis and Allen Rossum. Mathis is a great nickel guy, and a terrific team leader, but only a bye-week filler at best. Webster is the other starter here, but again, a bye-week guy at best. The only way he might be a viable starter for your team is if DeAngelo comes up as big as I'm pimping him. Webster would have plenty of chances to make plays for the same reason many rookie wideouts produce - opportunity. More balls thrown to his side of the field means that he'll see more shots to pick and defense passes and make tackles. Depending on your scoring, Allen Rossum could be a real gem. The little guy is always near the top of the league in return yardage an usually gives you a TD or two a year. He's also played well when pressed into spot-duty as a dime or quarter guy. Unless though, your scoring gives you yardage love, or you want to swing for the fences on your bye-week, even the diminutive Possum is best left to the WW. The aforementioned Christian Morton and little-known Etric (yes, that's spelled right) Pruitt are both are young (second and third-year players respectively) and worth a mention here, but not much more than that unless one of them shows something in the pre-season and unseats Webster.

 

THE LINEBACKERS

 

The dirty birds biggest splash in free-agency was the signing of Ravens FA MLB Ed Hartwell. ESPN ranked Hartwell their #5 FA for the offseason, This being his fifth pro-season, he's just entering his prime. Since he's been in the shadow of Ray Lewis, no one really knows how good this guy is, but his performance the last couple years when "slash" was out with injury has shown the man more than capable. The Falcon's scheme is specifically designed to make this guy a stud. Period. This guy is top-10 material folks, probably top-5, with on caveat: injury. Not his, as this guy has stayed pretty healthy over his career. The injury worry here is with the D-line. Brady Smith is out until at least the start of the season at defensive-end, a position where the birds are already thin. They lost valuable depth at the tackle position when they lost Ed Jasper to FA and Travis Smith was cut in a salary move. Keep an eye on that line prior to your draft, but if Coleman and Kearny are there, Hartwell is probably safe. Rookie Jordan Beck from Cal/Poly is Hartwell's likely backup, but Hartwell's contract has so much guaranteed money it's likely he'll remain a Falcon throughout the five-year contract.

 

The other linebackers there are solid, bordering on top-notch. Though some would say he didn't deserve it (or was borderline), Kieth Brooking is a pro-bowl guy. He's led the team in tackles the last three years, but sometimes plays undisciplined and gets caught over-pursuing. He's still a top-20 LB in most formats. Ike Reese and Demorrio Williams will battle for the strong-side spot, with Williams the favorite. Either one of those guys could be a top-20 player as well, so it's a nice problem to have. But I'd stay away unless I could get them REAL cheap, at least until the situation settles itself. Ike Reese is a wiley vet who seems to play younger than he is, but Williams is the classic over-achieving linebacker that the Falcons always seem to have on their roster (Mark Simeneau, Chris Draft and Jesse "The Hammer" Tuggle?) Clearly, the LB corps is the strong suit of this defense. Heck, Chris Draft was released after Hartwell was signed, and Draft could be starting in Carolina if the Cats didn't have Witherspoon there.

 

Another player to keep an eye on is rookie fifth-rounder Michael Boley out of Southern Miss. Not well known from C-USA, this kid is a real player. He led the nation in 2003 with 22.5 tackles for losses, and followed that up in 2004 with 20 tackles for losses, including NINE sacks five forced fumbles and a pair of picks. If you have room on your bench, or are out of it towards the end of the season this kid might be worth stashing as a keeper prospect. At 6'2", 228, he's small, even for the weakside, but if he can put on 10-15 pounds and develop his talent, the sky's the limit (hint: Julian Peterson is only an inch taller and 235 lbs).

 

THE DEFENSIVE LINE

 

The strong play of the D-line was the sole reason the Atlanta secondary looked as good as mediocre. Rod Coleman (11.5 sacks, 31 solo and 9 assisted tackles, capped off by a pick for a TD in THIRTEEN FREAKIN' GAMES) might have been the steal of the 2004 FA period, and the switch back to the 4-3 put the defensive ends Smith (6 sacks, 25 solo and 5 assisted tackles with one pick) and Kerney (13 sacks, 54 solo and and 12 assisted tackles with a pick and SEVEN passes defensed) back in their natural positions. Something else to note is that both Smith and Kerney played all 16 games, and Coleman probably would have had he just hit the frickin' deer instead of swerving to avoid it and wrecking his Escalade. The fourth spot really didn't matter when you have that kind of production from the other three, but it was a mix of Ed Jasper and rookie Chad Lavalais from LSU. Since Jasper's gone this year, my money's on rookie second-round choice Jonathan Babineaux (Iowa) to replace him.

 

Mora and McKay seem to be on the same page in that they prefer smokin' fast D-linemen to give the protection schemes fits, allowing the linebackers to flow freely to the ball. For this reason, Babineaux seems to be the perfect fit. This guy is an athlete, playing all of the big three in high-school, where his football duties included linebacker, fullback and punter (fourty yard avg! :D ). He was recruited as a fullback in college, but was moved to the D-line after losing his sophmore season to a broken tibia. In 2002, his first season as a DT, he appeared to have found a home, notching 53 tackles (31 solo, NINE for loss) along with seven sacks, two forced fumbles and a pick in a pear-tree. He lost the last half of his Jr season in 2003 to torn ankle ligaments and another fracture of his right-tibia in a nasty injury. In five (the injury occured early in the 6th game) games that year he posted 23 tackles (12 solo, five for losses) and one sack. Babineaux tore it up in 2004 for the big-ten champion Hawkeyes, earning All-American and All-BigTen honors as well as the team-MVP honor. He registered 55 tackles last year (41 solo, TWENTY-FREAKIN'-FIVE for losses) along with a paltry 11 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries, and 12 pressures. This kid is PERFECT for the bird's scheme and he's got "sleeper" written all over him. With the attention afforded the right side of that line I have him penciled in for 5 sacks - and he can probably be had near the last round of your drafts.

 

Keep an eye on the Brady Smith situation though, because if Smith misses much time the youngster could struggle early if the Falcons can't come up with much of an answer at the right end. Word from the Zone is that the kid has a great work ethic an a motor that doesn't stop, but Lavalais is currently listed as the starter there. Lavalais is a kid they like, but in a rotation and not as the primary guy. I'm betting "Babs" has that job by opening day.

 

Khaleed Vaughn, a second-year man from Clemson will get the start at RDE should Brady miss any time. This kid looked good in spot-duty last year, recording three tackles against the Saints in week 16 action (the only game in which he had significant playing time).

 

The key to this D-line is their health. No one missed significant playing time last year save Coleman's car wreck, and except for Kerney's first two years in the league, none have been what I'd call "injury-prone", but Coleman does tend to miss 2-3 games/year. All are getting close to 30 though, which can be a painful year for NFL players.

 

The birds rushing offense helped the D a lot last year, keeping them fresh. I think the rushing might slightly decline this year, though I think the passing game should come on. If the birds can play from ahead more this year, then the stats on the linemen only get better. With the possible exception of the depth on the line, this defense is better in every respect this year. Hartwell adds an all-pro talent to an already stout LB corps, and Ike Reese adds depth and a leadership quality that can't be measured. I fully expect Hall and Scott to play at All-pro levels in the secondary. In fact, Scott might be as good in coverage as some teams second cornerback (he played corner in college at Pitt). The rest of the secondary, while only average, will be plenty good enough to play effective zone coverages with the line wreaking havoc on opponents protection schemes. The key will be the offense. If Vick and Jenkins (what if Price actually comes close to earning his money?) come along like you'd expect, then this defense will be playing with a lead a lot more, enabling the disruptive linemen to put opposing QB's on their backs, or even better, force prayers up for the secondary to pull from the air. The best defense really is a good offense...

Edited by westvirginia
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Nice report, WV! I have Hartwell and Carpenter, so yer makin me a happy camper! Have the Falcons opened camp? anything new?

907189[/snapback]

 

They opened camp on Monday, and Mora immediately started stirring up the pot (his words) by promoting Jenkins over Price, telling Roddy that he might have already lost his shot at starting this season, and challenging the D-line for 6 more sacks this season. They play in Tokyo this Saturday morning at five a.m.

 

I added the prognosis for the linemen for your enjoyment. I'll add more as the news warrants...

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