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"Weekly" Defense strategy


Steeltown Dre
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Thinking about the situations that Arizona and NY Jets find themselves in, as well as the lackluster offensive numbers put up by Houston, Buffalo, Detroit and Chicago (see stats here: http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?showtopic=112635) I have considered the strategy of adding defenses weekly.

 

My Bills D was already not doing well, now that Spikes is down, who knows. Lossman puts them in bad field position and they don't have much to work with. So, here's a strategy that may work (feel free to chime in).

 

It's also not a "make or break" strategy, in that you can always stick with one of these teams if they get "hot" on defense, or pick other defenses going up against struggling offenses in the future.

 

The teams I looked at were available in my league, you may have better/worse luck in your league. I looked at favorable matchups they face in the future:

 

Tennessee

Sun 10/9 at Houston

Sun 10/23 at Arizona

Sun 12/11 Houston

 

Miami

Sun 10/9 at Buffalo

Sun 12/4 Buffalo

Sun 12/18 NY Jets

 

St. Louis

Sun 10/23 New Orleans

Sun 11/20 Arizona

Sun 11/27 at Houston

 

Dallas

Sun 10/30 Arizona

 

Seattle

Sun 10/16 Houston

Sun 11/6 at Arizona

 

Cleveland

Sun 10/9 Chicago

Sun 10/16 at Baltimore

Sun 10/23 Detroit

Sun 10/30 at Houston

 

As you can see, pretty much every weekend there is a matchup to exploit. Cleveland has a bye this week, but has some pretty good matchups in October. Of course, none of these Defenses are top notch, but if you have a mediocre or underacheiving defense, this could help you out.

 

Anyone use this before with success? Failure? You could always keep your regular D and free up a roster spot to use weekly on a Defense and just decide which to go with at the end of the week. This is not a WDIS, but an examination into this strategy and thoughts about the teams/matchups I listed.

 

The point here is instead of just grabbing Ten and keeping them for the year, suffering the hard matchups but enjoying the easier ones, why not keep dropping/adding to get only easier matchups?

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Potential good Defense matchups, Week 4

 

I'll do this based solely on teams available in my league, you can list teams from your league or comment:

 

Ranked (feel free to comment on ranking) - also, my rank takes into account the following scoring:

 

 

Sack (1)Interception (2)Fumble Recovery (2)Touchdown (6)Safety (2)Block Kick (2)Points Allowed 0 points (18)Points Allowed 1-6 points (14)Points Allowed 7-13 points (8)Points Allowed 14-20 points (5)Points Allowed 21-27 points (0)Points Allowed 28-34 points (-4)Points Allowed 35+ points (-10) 

 

 

 

1. Wash vs. Sea - Washington is 2nd in the league in rushing D, allowing only 65.5 ypg. They faced Chi and Dal, both teams have decent backs, though not top 5. They also are ranked 10th in passing D. They rank 3rd overall in total D and 3rd overall in scoring D (not that Chi and Dal have great offenses). While not recording many sacks or ints, they have only allowed 2 total TDs. They face Seattle who comes off a game at home where they stomped Arizona. The best D they faced was Jac, where they lost 14-26. Shaun Alexander rushed 14 times for 73 yards in that game and 0 TDs. Not to say he won't get one this Sunday, but Seattle coming East playing an early 1pm game against a Skins team coming off a 2-0 start and a bye week, I like my chances on their D to be ready for Shaun and the Seattle offense.

 

2. SF @ Ari - Arizona's scoring offense ranks 26th in the league, scoring just over 14 points per game. These games were against the Giants, St. Louis, and Seattle, teams not known for incredible Defenses. They were blown out in 2 of those games. And that was with Warner. They face a SF defense ranked dead last in the NFL, allowing 477 ypg. And that was with Peterson. SF allows 33 ppg and has allowed 13 TDs. Those were games agains StL, Phi, and Dallas. Teams with above average offenses and they were present for McNabb's 5 TD game. The only consolation is Ari is 2nd worst in the NFL, allowing 32 ppg and 12 TDs. Arizona has allowed 11 sacks, 5th worst in the NFL, and has thrown 4 ints, 7th worst in the NFL. If you don't get negative points for points allowed, I'd go with SF over Wash. I see a sloppy, moderate to high scoring game. Good for your D, if you don't care about allowing yards/points.

 

3. Buff @ NO - NO has thrown 5 ints (4th worst in the NFL) and allowed 8 sacks (8th worst). The only problem is their offense is ranked 11th overall, even though their rushing attack is only giving them 97 yards per game (bottom half of the league). While the Bills were good in the past, take away their NT, their best overall defensive player in Spikes, and their veteran QB in Bledsoe, and they are churning out some terrible numbers on both sides of the ball:

 

2nd worst in passing offense at 100 ypg, dead last in passing completion %, 5th worst in scoring.

 

On the otherside of the ball, their defense is dead last in rushing defense, allowing 174 ypg and 28 rushing first downs. Their passing D is only ranked higher because teams don't have to throw on them to move the ball effectively. I look for a solid rushing game on both sides of the ball. This means fewer sacks, ints, and TOs. Sure, Brooks is always good for a couple a game, but if Lossman plays his usual self, look for the Saints to have many short fields to put points on the board. While the Bills will be alright on D this week vs NO (better than when they play NE or Indy), I have them and am contemplating picking up one of the 2 teams mentioned above.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Week 4 I stuck with Buffalo and they only got me 6 points (19 points allowed and 1 sack).

 

Week 5 I went with Miami @ Buffalo. They got me 10 points (20 points allowed, 3 sacks, 1 FR).

 

This week I already picked up Seattle facing Houston.

 

Looking ahead to week 7, I'm liking Washington at home vs. San Fran, and if I don't get them, St. Louis at home vs. New Orleans.

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Worked for me last week so I will do it again. It costs $5 but I need the wins.

 

Replaced my usual starting D (NE) with Tennessee(v.Hou). NE scored 6 points based on my league's scoring. Tennessee got me 16. I won my game by 9.

 

This week I already picked up Seattle(v.Hou).

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I've got these 2 defenses in a couple of leagues based on the upcoming bolded matchups below:

 

Jaguars:

6 PIT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

8 STL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

9 HOU 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

10 BAL 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

11 TEN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

12 ARI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

13 CLE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

14 IND 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

15 SFO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

16 HOU 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

 

Titans:

6 CIN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

7 ARI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

8 OAK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

9 CLE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

11 JAX 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

12 SFO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

13 IND 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

14 HOU 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

15 SEA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

16 MIA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

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Yeah, the Jags are a must have heading into Fantasy Playoffs - they still are available and as it gets closer and bye weeks pass, I'll add them to my bench and have them ready for the strech run. I may grab them before week 9 and just sit them on my bench after that. In fact, they aren't bad at all weeks 10 and 12 either, vs Bal and Ari.

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