Projected Draft Positions / Playoff Participants

[muck]

Since my earlier iteration of this analysis wasn't generating any comments, I thought I'd redo the way the information was presented to see if it helps any... So, here are my projections for this years' playoff teams and next years' draft order, which is based on a teams performance versus backwards looking strength of schedule and a forward looking strength of schedule:

 

1. Miami -- 0.9 wins (projected)

2t. NY Jets -- 4.3 wins

2t. St. Louis -- 4.3 wins

4t. Atlanta -- 4.4 wins

4t. San Francisco -- 4.4 wins

6. Oakland -- 5.3 wins

7. Baltimore -- 5.6 wins

8. Kansas City -- 5.7 wins

9. Cincinnati -- 6.0 wins

10. Carolina -- 6.5 wins

11. Houston -- 6.6 wins

12t. Philadelphia -- 6.7 wins

12t. Washington -- 6.7 wins

14. Chicago -- 6.8 wins

15. Denver -- 6.9 wins

16. New Orleans -- 7.0 wins

17. Detroit -- 7.8 wins

18t. Arizona -- 8.1 wins

18t. Buffalo -- 8.1 wins

20. Tennessee -- 9.2 wins

 

Playoff Teams:

21. Minnesota -- 8.2 wins -- wildcard

22. San Diego -- 9.3 wins

23. Cleveland -- 9.4 wins -- wildcard

24. NY Giants -- 10.2 wins -- wildcard

25. Jacksonville -- 10.4 wins -- wildcard

26. Seattle -- 10.5 wins

27. Tampa Bay -- 10.6 wins

28. Pittsburgh -- 11.4 wins

29. Indianapolis -- 12.8 wins

30. Green Bay -- 12.9 wins

31. Dallas -- 13.9 wins

32. New England -- 15.1 wins

[kingfish247]

Based on those projections, I threw together a pretty random mock draft. Yep, didn't make the playoffs in my major so just looking towards next year. Just my quick thoughts based on needs and obviously not considering any possible trades, some underclassmen not declaring for the draft etc...

 

1. Miami -- 0.9 wins (projected) Glenn Dorsey-DT, LSU... Phins pass on McFadden and snag a franchise defensive tackle.

2t. NY Jets -- 4.3 wins Darren McFadden-RB, Arkansas... probably don't need him but too good to pass up.

2t. St. Louis -- 4.3 wins Jake Long-OT, Michigan... Pace, and the rest of the OL, can't stay healthy.

4t. Atlanta -- 4.4 wins Brian Brohm-QB, Louisville... no brainer but could be Ryan here.

4t. New England (via San Fran) -- 4.4 wins James Laurinaitis-LB, OSU... what does this team REALLY need anyways???

6. Oakland -- 5.3 wins Chris Long-DE, Virginia... absolutely must upgrade their defensive front 7.

7. Baltimore -- 5.6 wins Sam Baker-OT, USC... Ogden is on his last leg.

8. Kansas City -- 5.7 wins Malcolm Jenkins-CB, OSU... need OL but the top prospects are gone, Law has aged pretty quick since last year

9. Cincinnati -- 6.0 wins Sedric Ellis-DT, USC... they need adequate defensive bodies, like now.

10. Carolina -- 6.5 wins Kenny Phillips-S, Miami... could take the first WR but I don't see it. Before the SF game (4 INTs), the DBs only had 7 INTs on the year. They need a playmaker roaming their secondary.

11. Houston -- 6.6 wins Felix Jones-RB, Arkansas... plenty of options here but it's hard to argue against the other Arkansas RB here. Green can't say on the field, his contract is a mess in 2009, Dayne is an OK backup.

12t. Philadelphia -- 6.7 wins Calais Campbell-DE, Miami... combined with Cole, could become a fierce pass rush duo.

12t. Washington -- 6.7 wins Vernon Gholston-DE, OSU... still need help along the front 4.

14. Chicago -- 6.8 wins Matt Ryan-QB, BC... they need a QB, now.

15. Denver -- 6.9 wins Dan Connor-LB, Penn State... they need someone to stop the rush, now.

16. New Orleans -- 7.0 wins Aqib Talib-CB, Kansas... they need an able body at the corners, now.

17. Detroit -- 7.8 wins Terrell Thomas-CB, USC... lost Dre Bly last year, probably a week 1 starter for the Lions.

18t. Arizona -- 8.1 wins Quentin Groves-DE/OLB, Auburn... Dansby and Pace will probably be in demand via free agency, probably can't keep both.

18t. Buffalo -- 8.1 wins Ali Highsmith-OLB, LSU... Poz (if he can return healthy) and Highsmith would make for a fierce LB duo.

20. Tennessee -- 9.2 wins Adarius Bowman-WR, Oklahoma State... need a big playmaker with good hands.

21. Minnesota -- 8.2 wins -- wildcard Reggie Smith-DB, Oklahoma... need help in the secondary, could play corner or safey.

22. San Diego -- 9.3 wins Keith Rivers-LB, USC... hard to gauge what this team really needs, could go secondary here.

23. Dallas (via Cleveland) -- 9.4 wins -- wildcard Malcolm Kelly-WR, Oklahoma... big, surehanded, (but most importantly) young target from just up the road.

24. NY Giants -- 10.2 wins -- wildcard Ryan Clady-OT, Boise State... Giants need an OT but Clady's athleticism makes him versatile.

25. Jacksonville -- 10.4 wins -- wildcard Desean Jackson-WR, Cal... I know. ANOTHER 1st round WR? Yeah, difference is this one isn't a plodding giant with bricks for hands. For a pretty vanilla offense, he provides an 'X-factor' worth having.

26. Seattle -- 10.5 wins Mario Manningham-WR, Michigan... Engram isn't getting any younger, Hackett is a FA with injury concerns, Branch can't stay healthy either.

27. Tampa Bay -- 10.6 wins Michael Oher-OT, Ole Miss... he would probably start at left OT week 1.

28. Pittsburgh -- 11.4 wins Duke Robinson-G, Oklahoma... an already struggling OL will likely lose at least 1 starter via free agency.

29. San Fran (via Indy) -- 12.8 wins Early Doucet-WR, LSU... need help on OL but DJax looks terrible, then it's Arnaz Battle and who else? Lelie? No thanks.

30. Green Bay -- 12.9 wins Jonathan Stewart-RB, Oregon... Grant has looked good but it's hard to pass on Stewart here.

31. Dallas -- 13.9 wins Jonathan Hefney-DB, Tennessee... versatile DB that can play corner or safety.

32. New England -- 15.1 wins FORFEITED