Easy n Dirty Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 (edited) I'm joining a HR Derby pool at work this year, would appreciate any insights since I'm a casual fan at best. Way it works is this - pick one player each from pools A, B and C (see below), then pick five other players. One of the extra five players is designated a reserve who only becomes active if one of the first seven goes on IR. Most cumulative HRs at end of season wins the cash. Pool A - A-Rod, Prince Fielder, Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena and Ryan Howard Pool B - Matt Holliday, David Ortiz, Jim Thome, Lance Berkman, Miguel Cabrera, and Albert Pujols Pool C - Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee, Ryan Braun, Alfonso Soriano, Chris Young, Paul Konerko and Justin Morneau I'm leaning toward Howard, Ortiz and Soriano as my three picks from the pools - no idea who I should pick for my five at large entries, any and all input is appreciated, esp. any good sleeper picks. Edited March 25, 2008 by Easy n Dirty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Easy n Dirty Posted March 25, 2008 Author Share Posted March 25, 2008 I saw a reference to Chris Duncan in whomp's thread - never heard of him before, but I just looked him up and he might be a decent sleeper - big guy (6'4", 230) and has 44 HRs in 644 big league at bats. My reservations would be that I'm not sure if he's a full-time starter at this point (anyone? anyone?), and I thought his home park in St. Louis was one of the tougher ones in which to hit homers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 I'm joining a HR Derby pool at work this year, would appreciate any insights since I'm a casual fan at best. Way it works is this - pick one player each from pools A, B and C (see below), then pick five other players. One of the extra five players is designated a reserve who only becomes active if one of the first seven goes on IR. Most cumulative HRs at end of season wins the cash. Pool A - A-Rod, Prince Fielder, Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena and Ryan Howard Pool B - Matt Holliday, David Ortiz, Jim Thome, Lance Berkman, Miguel Cabrera, and Albert Pujols Pool C - Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee, Ryan Braun, Alfonso Soriano, Chris Young, Paul Konerko and Justin Morneau I'm leaning toward Howard, Ortiz and Soriano as my three picks from the pools - no idea who I should pick for my five at large entries, any and all input is appreciated, esp. any good sleeper picks. I would personally go with the bolded players. A-Rod will hit 50 again. Nothing against Fielder, Dunn, Pena and Howard... but they have inexperience, strikeouts, one-year wondering and injuries, respectively, to deal with. You don't get much more consistent than A-Rod; Holliday is an uber-stud and will hit 40+ easily. The rest of those cats have age/injury issues. Except Cabrera, who may find hitting in the graveyard that is Comerica a bit handcuffing. I like Beltran but his power has dipped significantly. Braun is nice but let's see it again. Soriano won't hit 30. Young is too ... young. Konerko is sporadic and Morneau is solid but has little protection. Gotta go with the consistency again and that is Carlos Lee. Helps that he's hitting in the Minute Maid bandbox. As for sleepers, see below: I saw a reference to Chris Duncan in whomp's thread - never heard of him before, but I just looked him up and he might be a decent sleeper - big guy (6'4", 230) and has 44 HRs in 644 big league at bats. My reservations would be that I'm not sure if he's a full-time starter at this point (anyone? anyone?), and I thought his home park in St. Louis was one of the tougher ones in which to hit homers. I was the one that mentioned Duncan, and I think he could hit 30 easily. Maybe more. Duncan's inked in at left field for the Cards (with little competition) and is the primary backup to Pujols at first base. With the injuries sure to come Pujols' way again, you can be assured that Duncan will be an everyday player. Some other names to be aware of: Adam LaRoche, Ty Wigginton, Khalil Greene, Troy Glaus, Pat Burrell, Rick Ankiel, Josh Fields and Jack Cust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Easy n Dirty Posted March 25, 2008 Author Share Posted March 25, 2008 I would personally go with the bolded players. A-Rod will hit 50 again. Nothing against Fielder, Dunn, Pena and Howard... but they have inexperience, strikeouts, one-year wondering and injuries, respectively, to deal with. You don't get much more consistent than A-Rod; Holliday is an uber-stud and will hit 40+ easily. The rest of those cats have age/injury issues. Except Cabrera, who may find hitting in the graveyard that is Comerica a bit handcuffing. I like Beltran but his power has dipped significantly. Braun is nice but let's see it again. Soriano won't hit 30. Young is too ... young. Konerko is sporadic and Morneau is solid but has little protection. Gotta go with the consistency again and that is Carlos Lee. Helps that he's hitting in the Minute Maid bandbox. As for sleepers, see below: I was the one that mentioned Duncan, and I think he could hit 30 easily. Maybe more. Duncan's inked in at left field for the Cards (with little competition) and is the primary backup to Pujols at first base. With the injuries sure to come Pujols' way again, you can be assured that Duncan will be an everyday player. Some other names to be aware of: Adam LaRoche, Ty Wigginton, Khalil Greene, Troy Glaus, Pat Burrell, Rick Ankiel, Josh Fields and Jack Cust. Is Ryan Howard injured? I am between he and A-Rod from Pool A, I love the fact that Howard hit 47 last year despite missing about two weeks worth of action (played in 144 games), and that after going for 58 in 2006. My reasoning on Ortiz is similar - although he didn't miss time last year, he was supposedly dinged up for much of the season, and I heard he is healthy now, so I thought he might improve upon his 35 last year, having hit 47 and 54 the two previous seasons. Holliday hit 36 last year and appears to be on the upswing, which arguably cannot be said of Ortiz, but that 36 is still 50% shy of what Big Papi hit just two seasons ago. I had the same reservations about Cabrera, figured the switch to Detroit would not help his HR tally. In pool C, I narrowed it down to Soriano and Lee. Soriano hit 46 in 2006 and had 33 last year in only 135 games. Lee had 32 in 162 games with 627 ABs, certainly can't expect any more opportunity than that. Soriano also outhit Lee the two prior seasons (46 to 37 in 2006, and 36 to 32 in 2005), and both are the same age - what makes you say Soriano won't hit 30 this year? He's done so 5 of the last 6 seasons. Thanks for the response, I appreciate the input and I'll look into those guys you mentioned - I'd defintiely be interested in hearing more of your thoughts on your pool choices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Easy n Dirty Posted March 25, 2008 Author Share Posted March 25, 2008 OK, did some more digging - I like Jack Cust and Josh Fields from the list darin gave me above. How about some of these guys - Aramis Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Brad Hawpe? Jermaine Dye, Vlad Guerrero - they have something left in the tank? How about the kid Hamilton now that he's clean and in Texas? Torii Hunter? He's hit in the high 20s or better 5 of his last seven seasons, I've no idea if the move from Minnesota to Anaheim helps him or hurts him - probabbly the latter, I seem to recall that the Twins' park has always been pretty conducive to the long ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted March 25, 2008 Share Posted March 25, 2008 Is Ryan Howard injured? I am between he and A-Rod from Pool A, I love the fact that Howard hit 47 last year despite missing about two weeks worth of action (played in 144 games), and that after going for 58 in 2006. My reasoning on Ortiz is similar - although he didn't miss time last year, he was supposedly dinged up for much of the season, and I heard he is healthy now, so I thought he might improve upon his 35 last year, having hit 47 and 54 the two previous seasons. Holliday hit 36 last year and appears to be on the upswing, which arguably cannot be said of Ortiz, but that 36 is still 50% shy of what Big Papi hit just two seasons ago. I had the same reservations about Cabrera, figured the switch to Detroit would not help his HR tally. In pool C, I narrowed it down to Soriano and Lee. Soriano hit 46 in 2006 and had 33 last year in only 135 games. Lee had 32 in 162 games with 627 ABs, certainly can't expect any more opportunity than that. Soriano also outhit Lee the two prior seasons (46 to 37 in 2006, and 36 to 32 in 2005), and both are the same age - what makes you say Soriano won't hit 30 this year? He's done so 5 of the last 6 seasons. Thanks for the response, I appreciate the input and I'll look into those guys you mentioned - I'd defintiely be interested in hearing more of your thoughts on your pool choices. No Howard's not injured, yet... call it a gut feeling but he had a few leg issues last season and I could see him out for 40+ games this year. Again, just a gut feel. Wouldn't look at ya sideways for taking him, though. He's a beast. With Soriano, I think he concentrates on gap hitting and stealing bases this season. The Cubs are going to be very good and they'll get plenty of power from their real sluggers. Again, if you take him I surely wouldn't blame you... he could easily hit 30+ yet again. I just like the fact that Lee is so consistent and plays in a bandbox - especially to his power alley in left. OK, did some more digging - I like Jack Cust and Josh Fields from the list darin gave me above. How about some of these guys - Aramis Ramirez, Adrian Gonzalez, Brad Hawpe? Jermaine Dye, Vlad Guerrero - they have something left in the tank? How about the kid Hamilton now that he's clean and in Texas? Torii Hunter? He's hit in the high 20s or better 5 of his last seven seasons, I've no idea if the move from Minnesota to Anaheim helps him or hurts him - probabbly the latter, I seem to recall that the Twins' park has always been pretty conducive to the long ball. I'm a hugh Cubs fan and think Aramis is going to blast 40. I like Adrian Gonzalez but he plays in a graveyard (and will play in many NL West stadiums which are also graveyards.... SBC Park, Chavez Ravine). I like Hawpe but see a 30-35 HR ceiling there. Probably closer to 25-30. Dye and Vlad have a bit in the tank but their age makes them a bit risky, IMO. I like Hamilton in Texas and many are touting him and saying he has 30+ HR potential. I guess I agree. The move to Anaheim will help Hunter, for sure. Will he hit in the high 30's now? Probably not. I see him right where he has been, maybe 3-5 more this season than in his previous seasons. Hope this all helps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
herbwildwood Posted March 27, 2008 Share Posted March 27, 2008 (edited) The top three are gonna pretty tight and its a crapshoot. From A pick any one and you'll do fine. 40+ each for sure. Pena is the least likely of those guys to hit that many. From B I like Holliday and Miggy the best. The rest are old/injury risks From C I like Lee or Braun. Beltran has bad knees and wont stay healthy, Soriano is a leadoff or #2 guy and could go 30/30 but you can do better. Same with Young. Konerko and Morneau could do well, but I'm just not too high on them. Id go Howard (hitters park), Miggy (sick lineup), Lee (hitters park) personally. Here are some guys I like for at large. Too lazy to put in much of my research, but trust the names and pick your own. They should each put up 30+ Texy - cant believe hes not in the three groups. 40+ power easy Frenchy - put on 20 lbs this offseason. some of the 40+ doubles he hit in 2007 will end up over the fence and add to the 19 HRs from last year Hamilton - clean and scouts are saying he has the best power stroke in the cactus league. high risk/reward A. Gonzalez - plays in a hitters park and still hit 30+ last year Giambi - healthy, in shape, a lot to prove. good turnaround candidate in a sick lineup Atkins - he plays in CO..... Swisher - check his career #'s hitting on the south side...... Markakis - good young player with a nice stroke in a hitters park Ankiel - free swinging slugger through and through. high risk/reward Edited March 27, 2008 by herbwildwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooner Nation Posted March 27, 2008 Share Posted March 27, 2008 Howard - Will lead the majors in bombs Holliday - Just coming into his own, others have more risk. plays in colorado Lee - I like Soriano to bounce back, but Lee is the least risk 5 Open Mark Texiera - should be in pool C at the very least Travis Hafner - last yr was an aberation. David Wright - getting better every yr, hit 30 last yr. Manny Ramariz - Manny is a bit of an injury risk, but he looks good so far. Aramis Ramariz - Hit 38 in 2006, and was injured a bit last yr Also love Jack Crust, but he has no real position but DH. He is terrible in the field, and could be moved at the trading deadline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooner Nation Posted March 27, 2008 Share Posted March 27, 2008 Josh Fields was optioned to Triple A today, in place of Crede :mad: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Easy n Dirty Posted March 27, 2008 Author Share Posted March 27, 2008 Thanks to all for your help - I'm submitting my entry in a couple minutes, here's how I'm going - Pool A - Ryan Howard Pool B - Matt Holliday Pool C - going Ryan Bruan here. Certainly riskier than some others in this group, but he has high upside and I think I'm likely to be one of very few who choose him. At large entries - Mark Teixeira Aramis Ramirez Josh Hamilton Nick Swisher David Wright My last decision was between Nick Swisher and Jack Cust. I like that Cust hit 26 HRs in only 395 ABs last year, but ultimately couldn't get past the stadium factor, where he plays in the 6th most difficult park in which to hit homers, whereas Swisher gets the switch from that park to 4th most homerun-friendly park (got the data right here). Wright was largely a homer pick, and he is my reserve, meaning his stats will only count in the event that one of my top 7 goes in IR. Thanks again for all the help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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