muck Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 Another email I receive had the following list of thirty things that will happen in 2009. The guy is a writer about the world of hedge funds, but not all of his predictions are directly applicable to the investments / politics world. Last January he called for the 10-year note to plunge below 3% and the collapse of the stock market, predicted most economists will finally concede we are in a recession (including Mr. Kudlow), predicted an Obama and McCain presidential race, Obama's near landslide victory, Bear Stearns being acquired, and the peak in hedge fund assets hitting $3 trillion. One the 'wrong' side, he was less accurate predicting the beginning of stagflation, believing small hedge funds would perform well on a relative basis, there would be less volatile oil prices and the Indians would win the World Series. Anyhow, I thought that some of you would find these interesting...so, without further adieu, the predictions for this year are: 1. The Dow Jones will finish 2009 above 10,000 after dropping to 7200. 2. The 10-year note will drop below 2% and finish close to 5%. 3. GDP growth will be -5% for the year, despite a slightly positive Q4. 4. Inflation will become a real issue by Q4; not just monetarist propaganda. 5. Oil will drop to $29 a barrel and finish the year at $80 a barrel. 6. Ken Lewis (CEO of Bank of America) will resign by June 1. 7. The markets will embrace the Geithner program as the details are revealed. He will be vindicated. 8. There will be a violent 700-point up move on the Dow before Easter. 9. Obama will make two Supreme Court appointments this year. They will be more conservative than many Democrats had hoped for. 10. NYC will near bankruptcy and need a bailout despite Bloomberg's good work. 11. Risk management and strategy allocation will no longer be just buzzwords . 12. Hedge funds will have a positive year; the average [fund] will be about +10% by late summer. 13. Low volatility funds will be first on investors' A-list when investing begins again. 14. The House will try to retrieve Merrill bonuses, partially succeeding. 15. Japan will be the best performing equity market. 16. The emerging markets will be first out of the recession. 17. Mandarin will pass Spanish as the fastest growing second language in the U.S. 18. Louisville will win the NCAA basketball tournament. Duke will not make the Sweet 16. 19. The Mets will win the pennant. 20. The Jets will have a losing season. 21. Debtor In Posession funds will become the new strategy du jour. 22. Gazprom will make a major Western acquisition (in Europe). 23. China, despite its slowdown, will be the second best performer. 24. The U.K.'s real estate collapse and deep recession will put its sovereign rating on the watch list. 25. Hedge fund assets will end the year above $2 trillion. 26. Bernie Madoff's attempt at a plea bargain will not be successful. 27. The Obama administration will make education its focus after the stimulus program slowly takes effect. 28. Long-short equity will be a mediocre performer; healthcare, though, will shine. 29. The number of funds-of-funds will be halved. 30. [My] reader base will increase exponentially. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 Interesting list Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonorator Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 Anyhow, I thought that some of you would find these interesting...so, without further adieu, the predictions for this year are: 1. The Dow Jones will finish 2009 above 10,000 after dropping to 7200. i found it hard to read anything after this one. i would love for him to be right on this, but this downturn is much deeper than this would indicate. even if there is an upward push, profit taking and folks wanting to get out of the market will keep the selling up and the dow down. people are scratching for liquidity and there is none. a dow hitting 10,000 would imply that some money is going to fall from the sky somehow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 The Mets ain't winning the World Series Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 1. The Dow Jones will finish 2009 above 10,000 after dropping to 7200. i thnk i read somewhere that there were 8 different 20% up moves in the market during the depression...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 i thnk i read somewhere that there were 8 different 20% up moves in the market during the depression...... And each one was immediately after a tax cut? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 And each one was immediately after a tax cut? you forget to mention inflation Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SheikYerbuti Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 The Mets ain't winning the World Series He said the pennant, and I'd happily take it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 And each one was immediately after a tax cut? Just the opposite. Graph of unemployment from 1920-1940. The dwn tick during 1937 came when he stopped New Deal spending to try and balance the budget. This is from Wiki on The New Deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted February 18, 2009 Share Posted February 18, 2009 20. The Jets will have a losing season. Not necessary to be Nostradamus to nail this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.