Brentastic Posted May 12, 2009 Share Posted May 12, 2009 The only 'financial' guy I know of on here is Muck but I'm sure there are others. Anyways, I have my bachelor degree in finance and of course, being a fantasy guru, I love to analyze information. I'm currently a financial analyst and was previously a futures trader. For some reason though, I never pursued stock trading, even though all the 'work' (analyzing) required I consider fun. Well, last week I finally decided that instead of wasting countless hours on reading about football, I would concentrate on 'real' money and start buying stocks. After probably 20+ hours of reading and analyzing various stocks, charts and financial statements, I created a 'watch list' of about 15 stocks. My main criteria (other than picking companies with sound earnings) was to pick stocks that are about to break out (within the next 2-5 years). Another thing I tried to do was pick stocks that were relatively cheap but not 'penny' stocks. From my initial 15, I narrowed that down to 6 stocks I finally bought today - and although each of the 6 closed higher than my buy price, I realize this is more a long-term investment and I will not get caught up in the daily fluctuations. So here's what I bought today: TNDM EBAY STAR ARST ARTG HGRD Although, I'd love to hear any input on my selections for the sake of discussion - it's not the main reason for this post, I'll try to get to the point. Today, after I pulled the trigger, a coworker showed me an article justifying that we are still in a Bear market. Ok, so there are a million opinions on the market and one journalist can't persuade me one way or the other necessarily. But what attracted my attention is that the article sited the Elliott Wave theory as the prognosticating tool and a guy named Bob Prechter who apparently predicted the 87 and current crash. Sure, this Prechter fella could have made other 'calls' that were incorrect, but the articl was enough to get me interested in this technical approach - I have heard of the Elliott Wave theory but know very little about the details. Now, I'm not one to put a lot of effort into technical analysis or chart reading - I'd rather look at the financials (earnings, ROE, relative strength, PEG and P/E ratios etc...). But the basic premise of the Elliott Wave theory is something I've always believed in - and that is that humans are rhythmic by nature and the universe is rhythmic by nature, so why can't trading be rhythmic over long periods of time? So, long story short - can anyone point me in the direction of a 'free' site that breaks down Elliott Wave in relation to the current market conditions? Or sources of charts. Also, does anyone know if this theory is applied to a given stock or only to indexes and exchanges? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted May 12, 2009 Share Posted May 12, 2009 (edited) sounds like a bunch of mumbo-jumbo to me (sorry, but I think almost all of this crap is complete horsesh|t) (by the way, I'm sorry I still haven't responded to your PM from about 7 weeks ago--things have been extremely busy for me and I wanted to actually put some thought into my answer) Edited May 12, 2009 by wiegie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 12, 2009 Author Share Posted May 12, 2009 sounds like a bunch of mumbo-jumbo to me (sorry, but I think almost all of this crap is complete horsesh|t) (by the way, I'm sorry I still haven't responded to your PM from about 7 weeks ago--things have been extremely busy for me and I wanted to actually put some thought into my answer) No worries. I've actually put the idea of grad school on hold for now anyways, so no need to respond with any urgency. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted May 12, 2009 Share Posted May 12, 2009 (edited) FIRST: Elliot Wave Theory is (imo) generally best used as a guide to making decisions and not the main point when making a decision. Relying exclusively on EWT would be sorta like looking at your girlfriends' mom's ankles to decide whether or not you want to marry your girlfriend. A guide? Sure. BUT, there are many other things that would need to factor into a good decision. SECOND: I'm sure many are out there, but I'm only aware of one guy (and he's pretty obscure, to say the least) who uses EWT to make money, and even then, it's only a small component of what he does. THIRD: I believe that markets are driven by emotion / psychology, as feeling good pushes the money. As a result, markets are volatile and cyclical. The basic precepts of EWT seem to make sense ... it's implementing them that is a real bear. PS - I have no views on those particular stocks; I'm short the market. Edited May 12, 2009 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted May 12, 2009 Author Share Posted May 12, 2009 FIRST: Elliot Wave Theory is (imo) generally best used as a guide to making decisions and not the main point when making a decision. Relying exclusively on EWT would be sorta like looking at your girlfriends' mom's ankles to decide whether or not you want to marry your girlfriend. A guide? Sure. BUT, there are many other things that would need to factor into a good decision. SECOND: I'm sure many are out there, but I'm only aware of one guy (and he's pretty obscure, to say the least) who uses EWT to make money, and even then, it's only a small component of what he does. THIRD: I believe that markets are driven by emotion / psychology, as feeling good pushes the money. As a result, markets are volatile and cyclical. The basic precepts of EWT seem to make sense ... it's implementing them that is a real bear. PS - I have no views on those particular stocks; I'm short the market. Thanks for your input. I definitely think there is something to the EWT but like you said, implementing it is tough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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