LAG of my league. How would you draft?

[crazylegs]

I know it is very early, but I am doing my homework this year. I have been reading Mr. Dorey's "The Next Level" and have performed the LAG for my most important league. 10 team league. 16 rd. draft. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 flex (either RB or WR), 1 TE, 1 DEF and 1 IDP (usually a LB) 1/2 pt. per reception for RB, WR and TE. 6 Pts. per TD for all positions. 1 pt. per 20 yds for QB's. I was wondering if I could get some input from people who have done a LAG in the past and found it useful. We don't know our draft hole until just before we draft (draw numbers out of a hat, not kidding) My thoughts are that I would make getting a top QB a priority, as well as taking a RB in the first rd (duh), though at or after hole 5 in the first rd a top wr could make sense as well. I also will want a top TE. Trying to get a good gauge on a D that could be top 3 would be good as well and making it a priority to grab this early. These are my thoughts initially. Stats below, (couldn't get my excel graph to copy). I can not get the numbers to lineup on here for some reason, but if you take the first number, say from QB and put it under Top 3 avg, the next under 4th to 10th avg., etc. Oh, LB is empty because we didn't have this last year. To give you an idea of how people drafted last year I will give you the numbers on the first 4 rds. RD. 1: 8 Rb's, 2 WR's. Rd 2: 3 Rbs, 3 Wr's and 4 Qb's. Rd 3: 3 Rb's, 6 Wr's, 1 QB. Rd 4: 4 Rb's, 5 Wr's 1 QB. First 5 TE's went in Rd 5. 7 defenses were drafted in Rds 5-7 with 5 going in RD. 7. What might some of your draft plans be?

 

Top 3 avg., 4th to 10th avg., drop 3rd to 10th, 11th to 20th avg, drop 11th to 20th, drop 3rd to 20th

[/center]

QB 402 347 55 269 94 171

RB 305 226 79 173 26 126

WR 239 218 21 84 39 65

TE 201 145 55 104 38 115

PK 133 114 19 94 39 37

DEF 205 185 20 149 48 84

LB

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Edited April 19, 2010 by crazylegs

[crazylegs]

If someone could tell me how to add an excel chart to this it might be more helpful to people. I have not been able to do the old copy and paste. Any ideas?

[Jrick35]

What is a LAG?

[Big Country]

What is a LAG?

 

It's a valuation tool to help spotlight where the dropoffs are and thus help compare values across the different positions.

 

I prefer a last starter baseline method, using either projections for the upcoming season or a 3-5 year average of past scoring, as that takes into account lineups and league size when looking at the drops by position.

 

Essentially, what this LAG shows is that the drop from the #3 to #10 QB is comparable to the drop from the 3rd to the 20th WR and that the drop from the 3rd to the 20th RB is about double the drops seen in WR and QB. In other words, the value is found in the top end RBs, and you can wait a long time on WR and still get players of comparable value.

[jordanzs]

I like to just grab my cheatsheet & draw tier lines across it.

 

For 2010, there will be a tier line right below CJ/AP/MJD/Rice. After that, I'll look at a top tier WR. I'm sure I'll have another tier line right below Brees/Rodgers/Manning/Rivers.

[MTSuper7]

According to your LAG, the steepest drop off is at RB, then QB and TE are tied next. WR, K, and DEF are all about the same. So a loose plan of attack might be to target RB in the first, QB in the second (or another RB). A WR in the 3rd unless you go RB-RB to start in which case go QB. Then grab that TE in the 4th to get your choice. From there, another RB or WR depending on whether you already have your RB2. I wouldn't draft a defense early at all but rather stock up on your RBs and WRs and grab a D near the end of your draft.

Edited April 20, 2010 by MTSuper7

[crazylegs]

I appreciate the replies. I have never utilized a LAG to guide my draft, so hearing from people regarding what they see in mine is helpful. Do people agree with the responses so far, in terms of draft plan, or would others approach it differently based on what they see in the LAG?

[Company of Heroes]

You really need to factor in the draft tendencies of your league mates as well. Even though a LAG may indicate you can wait on one position (say QB) until later, that might not make sense in the context of your draft. If QBs are taken early and often, you may want to grab one early and watch the QB run follow your pick. If you know your league, you can try to be at the start of the positional runs.

[Big Country]

You really need to factor in the draft tendencies of your league mates as well. Even though a LAG may indicate you can wait on one position (say QB) until later, that might not make sense in the context of your draft. If QBs are taken early and often, you may want to grab one early and watch the QB run follow your pick. If you know your league, you can try to be at the start of the positional runs.

 

 

Wise advice here.

 

 

LAG or worst starter or any other valuation method can only show you were the expected value is going to be. That has to be tempered with league tendencies. For example, just because your analysis indicates that say a QB is the top value with an upcoming pick and you need one, you have to look at the draft, and maybe you will realize that only two teams need a QB between your next picks, and both of those owners have had a tendency to wait until much later to go QB, so you can feel relatively safe forgoing QB with the current pick, addressing a different need position and then coming back to QB with your next pick, or, waiting even later depending on your analysis once your next pick swings around.

 

Some fatal flaws to avoid:

1. Using the tool as gospel. Looking at historical trends will show you how the value tends to fall out in the league. Using projections shows you were you expect the value to fall. I find it useful to look at both and see if my projections have any major strayings from the historical trend and look at those for deeper anlaysis. Basically, the valuations are only as good as your projections.

 

2. Coming up with a set draft plan and sticking to it regardless of what happens in the trend. One of the worst things you can do is come in to a draft with a plan of say, RB in the 1st, QB in the 2nd, WR in the 3rd, Rb in the 4th, etc. You need to analyze what is available at each pick, what you expect to be available at your next pick, what the teams that pick between your picks need and then draft accordingly. Going with a fixed plan will inevitably lead you to leave some major value on the board if you are not adjusting to the flow of the draft.

[crazylegs]

You really need to factor in the draft tendencies of your league mates as well. Even though a LAG may indicate you can wait on one position (say QB) until later, that might not make sense in the context of your draft. If QBs are taken early and often, you may want to grab one early and watch the QB run follow your pick. If you know your league, you can try to be at the start of the positional runs.

Absolutely. Great point. I have been looking at these tendencies as part of my analysis. This is part of why I am starting very early this year. I am taking many factors into account such as league tendencies, where the value lies in each position in my league, doing my own projections, finding players with a level of consistency, etc.

[crazylegs]

Wise advice here.

 

 

LAG or worst starter or any other valuation method can only show you were the expected value is going to be. That has to be tempered with league tendencies. For example, just because your analysis indicates that say a QB is the top value with an upcoming pick and you need one, you have to look at the draft, and maybe you will realize that only two teams need a QB between your next picks, and both of those owners have had a tendency to wait until much later to go QB, so you can feel relatively safe forgoing QB with the current pick, addressing a different need position and then coming back to QB with your next pick, or, waiting even later depending on your analysis once your next pick swings around.

 

Some fatal flaws to avoid:

1. Using the tool as gospel. Looking at historical trends will show you how the value tends to fall out in the league. Using projections shows you were you expect the value to fall. I find it useful to look at both and see if my projections have any major strayings from the historical trend and look at those for deeper anlaysis. Basically, the valuations are only as good as your projections.

 

2. Coming up with a set draft plan and sticking to it regardless of what happens in the trend. One of the worst things you can do is come in to a draft with a plan of say, RB in the 1st, QB in the 2nd, WR in the 3rd, Rb in the 4th, etc. You need to analyze what is available at each pick, what you expect to be available at your next pick, what the teams that pick between your picks need and then draft accordingly. Going with a fixed plan will inevitably lead you to leave some major value on the board if you are not adjusting to the flow of the draft.

 

Very nice. Thank you. I am one of those drafters who has basically used a set of projections tailored to my league along with ADP data and some idea of a plan ie: I will take a QB late, TE late, stock up on RB's and WR's with an idea of certain studs or sleepers I want to target. This year I am entering a whole new realm. Gonna take some time to learn it and get used to it. I have been playing somewhat ignorant for a decent number or years. Everyone's insights are very helpful. Thanks you.

[crazylegs]

Question. I play in a league where either a rb or wr can be the flex, start 2 rb's, 2 wr's and a flex. 10 team league. If I am using the last starter baseline method do I start with the 30th or 20th guy down the list as 0 for rb's and wr's? Thanks for any help. Definitely changes the values.

[Inhiding]

How does one figure the LAG?

[Big Country]

Question. I play in a league where either a rb or wr can be the flex, start 2 rb's, 2 wr's and a flex. 10 team league. If I am using the last starter baseline method do I start with the 30th or 20th guy down the list as 0 for rb's and wr's? Thanks for any help. Definitely changes the values.

 

 

Flex does make it a bit trickier.

 

What I do is ignore flex players when I am making my initial "valuations", so I baseline with the 20th player in your situation. With a flex, you actually need to look at the raw score, as for that one (or two, depending on league setup) position, you don't need to baseline to compare, you need to see what players actually provide the highest number of points. You are comparing apples to apples for the flex spot. So, for example, if in your league WRs tend to score more once you are getting int othe mid 20-30 ranks of Rb and WR, which would be true with most setups, you are going to find that you are usually better served focusing on a WR for your flex spot.

 

When to grab said flex is a function of just how much more the player you are looking at scores compared to the other players, how your league tends to draft, what you have drafted thus far and what you expect to see go between your picks. So, if you still need a 2nd RB, and are looking to fill your flex with a WR, and those are the only two spots you are considering, you have to examine what you expect the drop to be between the current options at RB and who you tink will be there at your next pick and the drop between the WR you are considering for the flex and the next batch of players you expect to be available at your next pick. If you think the RB drop will be small, maybe just 1 PPG vs a 2 PPG drop at the WR position, then you;d fill your flex first. If your projections and assumptions on who will be taken shows the opposite, a larger drop at RB, then you'd grab the RB, as the goal is to maximize your total PPG.

[Big Country]

How does one figure the LAG?

 

You should pick up a copy of David Dorey's Book Fantasy Football: The Next Level. It goes into this in great detail.

[crazylegs]

Flex does make it a bit trickier.

 

What I do is ignore flex players when I am making my initial "valuations", so I baseline with the 20th player in your situation. With a flex, you actually need to look at the raw score, as for that one (or two, depending on league setup) position, you don't need to baseline to compare, you need to see what players actually provide the highest number of points. You are comparing apples to apples for the flex spot. So, for example, if in your league WRs tend to score more once you are getting int othe mid 20-30 ranks of Rb and WR, which would be true with most setups, you are going to find that you are usually better served focusing on a WR for your flex spot.

 

When to grab said flex is a function of just how much more the player you are looking at scores compared to the other players, how your league tends to draft, what you have drafted thus far and what you expect to see go between your picks. So, if you still need a 2nd RB, and are looking to fill your flex with a WR, and those are the only two spots you are considering, you have to examine what you expect the drop to be between the current options at RB and who you tink will be there at your next pick and the drop between the WR you are considering for the flex and the next batch of players you expect to be available at your next pick. If you think the RB drop will be small, maybe just 1 PPG vs a 2 PPG drop at the WR position, then you;d fill your flex first. If your projections and assumptions on who will be taken shows the opposite, a larger drop at RB, then you'd grab the RB, as the goal is to maximize your total PPG.

 

All good pts. I am working on drafting using tiers, tracking the draft by what other teams already have drafted, and experimenting with using value based drafting. Alot to keep up with given in the past I have basically taken rankings and drafted mostly according to a plan of what I thought would produce the best team ie: RB, WR, WR, RB, etc. without examining things such as a LAG or the value of players in my league. Good I am starting early. Thanks for the advice and help

[ajfalcone]

i believe the pre draft analysis is all part of why we enjoy fantasy football. It builds momentum leading us into August and draft day. I for one am constantly evaluating players and their values to their respective teams. Ex, Whats Roy Boy's value now that Dez is in Dallas? Is Turner done in two years?Or will Turner be rbbc when they draft a first round rb in 2011. This all plays in your respective LAG evaluation. Dont use ADP because basically it will eliminate your gut instinct when you must make the call between players when its your turn to pick. ADP will give you a variation of where a player should go between picks ........say.............3 to 7. or 12 to 19. The best tool to drafting is your gut and relying on all the information youv'e read for 5 months. As most know the championship is won with your last few picks and on the waiver wire. Grabbing or drafting Austin Collie or Miles Austin of last year and adding them to your roster of Andre Johnson or Roddy White is what wins championships. Look deep to find who the next Miles Austin will be because wether you draft Manning, brees, brady, shaub, rogers, Peterson, MJD, Chris Johnson, its all the same. JMHO!!!

Edited May 11, 2010 by ajfalcone