math buffs and/or betting buffs

[Dr. Sacrebleu]

France has just started allowing legalized betting on sporting events. Being a bit of a punter, I decided I would check it out.

When I looked at the payouts for bets, it seemed to me like the vig is tremendous, and thus makes betting a pretty poor proposition.

So can someone help me figure out what the take for these companies is?

 

In the US, betting on american football is pretty easy as there are just two propositions. W or L. Points are given to even out the equation to make it an even bet on either side. The casinos or betting sites take a 10 percent commision.

So 10$ played on either team gets you 19$ (9$ win + your 10$ bet back)

 

Football having three possible outcomes, and no possibility to tweak the numbers to even out the eqaution a bet looks like this:

 

France 2.05 Draw 2.80 Mexico 3.40

 

Now two things, first as opposed to the propoer gambling 2 to 1 proposition, they pay out 2 FOR 1. This means that if you bet 10$ on france you get 20.50 not 30.50 (2.05 X bet+ your bet back) which already seems a little scandalous to me.

 

So can anyone tell me what the vig is for the company on the listed bet is?

 

I did notice that the same site had listed bets on the NBA finals (boston +7) which paid out 1,75 on the bet on either side of the equation. Which means that the vig on s straight up bet is 25 percent!!!!

[Jackass]

France has just started allowing legalized betting on sporting events. Being a bit of a punter, I decided I would check it out.

When I looked at the payouts for bets, it seemed to me like the vig is tremendous, and thus makes betting a pretty poor proposition.

So can someone help me figure out what the take for these companies is?

 

In the US, betting on american football is pretty easy as there are just two propositions. W or L. Points are given to even out the equation to make it an even bet on either side. The casinos or betting sites take a 10 percent commision.

So 10$ played on either team gets you 19$ (9$ win + your 10$ bet back)

 

Football having three possible outcomes, and no possibility to tweak the numbers to even out the eqaution a bet looks like this:

 

France 2.05 Draw 2.80 Mexico 3.40

 

Now two things, first as opposed to the propoer gambling 2 to 1 proposition, they pay out 2 FOR 1. This means that if you bet 10$ on france you get 20.50 not 30.50 (2.05 X bet+ your bet back) which already seems a little scandalous to me.

 

So can anyone tell me what the vig is for the company on the listed bet is?

 

I did notice that the same site had listed bets on the NBA finals (boston +7) which paid out 1,75 on the bet on either side of the equation. Which means that the vig on s straight up bet is 25 percent!!!!

 

If it was a game of chance there would be 3 outcomes, win lose or draw and a 1 out of 3 chance of any of them. so the odds would theoretically pay 3 to 1 for any outcome - pay 10, win 30. However in this instance france is favored so odds are lowered to 2.05. Add up the three outcomes and you get 8.25. Now, assuming there's no additional charge or vig, the house is keeping the other .75 which actually amounts to less than 10% (i.e. this is money that they are taking no risk on). (Now, if there's an additional vig or whatever then you're getting really screwed.)

[Big Country]

These are just money line bets, and you can make them in the US on American Football or any other game as well.

 

France is favored, thus they have worse odds than a draw and Mexico winning, which are all less likely events.

 

It looks like they just structure the betting lines a bit differently, showing the total payout rather than the win amount. In the US, given the payout you describe, the line would read:

 

France +105

Draw +180

Mexico +240

 

meaning that, for every $100 bet on France, if they win, you get your $100 back plus $105, or a total of $205. A draw results in a win of $180, or a total payout of $280. A bet on mexico with a mexico win results in a win of $240, or a total payout of $340

 

 

Edit to add: Typically, in the US, on American Football for example, the money line is usually expressed as a negative number on the favorite, as you have to lay odds to bet it.

 

For example, Team A is a favorite in the game. Rather than bet against the spread, you want to bet the game straight up. The line may read Team A -130, Team B +140. In this case, in order to win $100 by betting on Team A to win straight up, you have to wager $130. But, if you bet $100 on Team B (the underdog) to win straight up, you would win $140.

 

I think the primary reason all 3 bets have a positive payout in soccer is the likelihood of a draw and the 3 possible outcomes of the game in soccer. A France win is the most likely outcome, but, as it is not considered a greater than 50% likelihood they will win, you still do not have to lay odds to bet on them.

Edited June 17, 2010 by Big Country

[detlef]

The vig is 25%. Assuming everyone bet evenly, they make .95 for every dollar if France wins, .2 for every dollar if they tie, and they lose .4 for every dollar if Mexico wins. That's a net of .75 gain for every $3 total bet ($1 for each team).

 

Bodog has the same odds. They don't have a tie option, so it's only 2 outcomes and the spread is .5 in their favor. So, .50 for every $2 bet ($1 each way).

 

The vig is always a bit higher on money line bets because, unlike $11 pays you $10 point spread bets where the house is assured of coming out ahead (provided the bets are even on each side and there are things they can do, like sell off bets to other bookies to help achieve this), there are situations where they actually lose money on certain outcomes. Like if Mexico wins.

 

I also think you have the basic odds wrong. They natural payout should be 2:1 (or $10 gets you your $10 plus $20 back). So if France (who is the favorite) actually paid you 2.05 in addition to you you money back, they'd be losing money big time.

 

Think about it like this. Say you and 2 friends all agree that the odds of France winning, Mexico winning, or them drawing were just as likely and all put $10 in, each taking one of those bets. The winner gets his $10 back plus the other $20.

Edited June 17, 2010 by detlef

[Scooby's Hubby]

tell me you put money on Mexico. viva la mexico!!! It seems like the bet on France pays 1.05:1 almost even money. Excpected. Mexico pays better, the underdog. Most of these games end in draws so that will have close to even odds as well. VIVA!!!