Tally Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 (edited) In years past some of us (scobbyhubby, mustofbeendrunk and a bunch others) used to get some really good discussions going from a gambling aspect. There are some great football minds around here and even though it's a fantasy site, I value the opinions of some of regulars and I think we can help each other make some money. I especially like when some of the hard core hommers chime in on their local teams. Anyway, these are my thoughts on some of the week 5 games, I'd love some feedback from my fellow huddlers on these picks and/or who they like this week. NFL 2014-2015 YTD 16-4 (+18 units) NO -10 vs TB Pick- NO -9.5 (3 units) *bought down .5pt TB is playing their 3rd road game in a row and coming off a big (for them) win @ PIT, not a good spot . NO crushes TB in the superdome and have out scored them 83-17 the last 2 times playing at home. As a matter of fact NO crushes everyone at home. They are the best home team in the NFL and under coach Payton they haven't lost a game ATS at home since 2010. NO is coming off an embarrassing loss to DAL and at 1-3 they need this win. I think they destroy a tired and road-worn TB team. Note: even though I like NO in a blowout, I'm super conservative and always buy off/to key numbers 3,4,6,7,10,14 when possible. CHI+3 @ CAR Pick- CHI +3 (2 units) All of the CAR running backs are banged up right now, they are down to 4th and 5th options at RB. If they can't run the ball with any kind of success (which is their bread and butter) CAR is in trouble. C. Newton isn't winning this game w/ his arm and he has no one to throw the ball to anyway, CAR best offensive player is a TE (G. Olsen). CHI offense should not have any trouble scoring, in their last 2 games CAR has given up 37 to PIT and 38 to BAL. M. Forte and the CHI run game finally got it going last week and CHI is a good road team (2-0 so far this season). The CAR defense is not the same as last year. So far this season , they are giving it up in both points (24 pts per game avg) and yards (374 yards per game avg). I'll take the 3 points in this one. IND -3.5 vs BAL Pick- IND -3.5 ( 2 units) BAL is in a letdown situation. They have won 3 games in a row including a huge win vs CAR in the S. Smith revenge game. They are a jekyll and hyde type of team and are due for a bad game. BAL is not a good road team and the BAL D is average at best against the pass. This week they will face A. Luck who is leading the NFL in every passing stat...pass yards, pass td's and QB rating. I just don't think BAL will be able to keep up in this one and I like the value on this line. I think the spread should be 2-3 points higher than it is. KC +5.5 @ SF Pick- SF -5.5 (.5 unit) The line opened up at KC +7.5 and after last Monday's dismantling of NE it has dropped to 5.5 as Joe public likes KC plus the points. This is a bad spot for KC and a good spot for SF. KC has to travel to the west cost and play on short rest coming off their best game in a long time...let down situation. SF goes on the road @NO and @NYG next, that's a couple tough road games for them and they know it, they need this home win. Coach Harbaugh knows Alex Smith very very well and he should have a good defensive scheme prepared for this game. The PHI offensive juggernaut scored zero offensive points last week vs SF, The SF D is still good. My concerns with this play are the V. Davis injury and C. Kappernick, I don't really trust him not to make mistakes that may keep KC in the game. This will be my smallest wager of the week. Edited October 4, 2014 by Tally Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 I think the play of the week is Seattle on the road. I don't think there is a question of an extreme mismatch while the Seahawks had an extra week for this. Cousins couldn't have asked for a worse scenario to overcome and this is a double digit win at minimum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip_Side Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 My bets for tomorrow are: Rams +7- Off the bye, defense hasn't got a sack the whole season, they will be going after Foles and that weak o-line all day. Broncos -7 Bengals PK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hollywood_69 Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Gb big! NO DEN huge! that is all thank me later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 My bets for tomorrow are: Rams +7- Off the bye, defense hasn't got a sack the whole season, they will be going after Foles and that weak o-line all day. FWIW, I believe PHI is supposed to get their RT back from injury tomorrow and the dude that's been playing RT will move back to guard where he belongs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 (edited) CLE +1.5 Should have beat Pitt Beat New Orleans Pushed with Balt 2-0-1 vs spread so far Titans stink Edited October 5, 2014 by HowboutthemCowboys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tally Posted October 5, 2014 Author Share Posted October 5, 2014 (edited) My bets for tomorrow are: Rams +7- Off the bye, defense hasn't got a sack the whole season, they will be going after Foles and that weak o-line all day. Broncos -7 Bengals PK I was leaning towards CIN also but I'm still struggling to get past going against NE as a home dog off a loss and now its up to 3 points. I cant pull the trigger. Here were my thoughts... CIN -1 @ NE - PICK- CIN -1 (.5 unit) NE is a rare home dog and they just played an awful game on Mon night which setups for a nice home dog play on them this week. The spot definitely favors NE but I don't think the "right spot" will be enough in this one. CIN is coming off a bye week giving them 2 weeks to prepare for this game and I love their talent on both sides of the ball. A. Dalton just continues to grow and get better. Gio Bernard is quickly becoming an elite RB, AJ Green is already an elite WR, and they have M. Sanu who nobody seems to know what to do with. Sanu has THROWN for a TD, he runs the ball and he's a really good WR. This guy is one of the most underrated offensive weapons in the league. On the other side of the ball the CIN defense is lights out. This is by far the best defense NE has faced so far this season. I just watched the KC defensive line push around NE like a bunch of school girls. What is going to happen when they face the defense that gives up an NFL best 11 points per game and also leads the NFL is turnover differential at +6. The NE offense is only averaging 20 pts per game (24th in NFL).Even if NE can put up 20 points on the CIN D it still wont be enough. I think CIN is going to push NE around on both sides of the ball and see a 20-17 game (at best for NE). The only reason this won't be a bigger play is because of the situational advantage NE has. Edited October 5, 2014 by Tally Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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