pun Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 (edited) One strategy I've found myself using a lot is checking out who the top CB is on the team that my WRs are facing. If they're facing a top shutdown corner, it makes me much more likely to sit them even if they're a stud WR. Obviously it's not like you must sit Julio against these guys, but it should lessen your expectations for studs, and if you have another option with a better match up, you might want to consider it. I've gotten burned starting guys against some of these CBs. Part of the reason I'm making this thread is because I'm no expert on CBs across the NFL, and would like to know which CBs would make you consider sitting your WRs. Here are the ones that imo almost cause "must-sit" status for WR1s: -Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. (DEN) - would also apply to WR2s obviously in this instance. -Darrelle Revis (NYJ) -Josh Norman (CAR) These guys are ones to also consider: -Desmond Trufant (ATL) -Richard Sherman (SEA) -Vontae Davis (IND) -Patrick Peterson (ARI) Edited November 7, 2015 by pun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
popcrnchicken Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Julio faces Norman twice, once in the fantasy playoffs (week 14), and in the fantasy championship if you play it in week 16. That's why many people are selling off Julio now. I've seen a couple trades of Julio for Beckham, with the Beckham owner having no idea what he's getting himself in to. I honestly would feel uncomfortable as well knowing your season will be riding on a stud like Norman shutting down your #1 WR. Your strategy is solid, and yes, you can even bench Julio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shorttynaz Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 And what happens when Norman gets hurt in week 13? Gonna have a lot of pissed off 'former' Jones owners. I start Jones with confidence in numerous leagues. If there's a such thing as an uncoverable WR, that's Julio. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
popcrnchicken Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 And what happens when Norman gets hurt in week 13? Gonna have a lot of pissed off 'former' Jones owners. I start Jones with confidence in numerous leagues. If there's a such thing as an uncoverable WR, that's Julio. If you're leaning on a person to get hurt, that shows how much confidence you have in that player. And if you made a good trade, you shouldn't be too pissed off. I'm sure you won't get scraps for Julio. You might even improve your team if you can get 2 studs for 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BA Baracus Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 A commonly overlooked flaw to this strategy is that most #1 corners do not 'shadow' an opponent's #1 WR. More often, a top corner stays on a particular side of the field. If the #1 WR typically lines up on his side, then they will see a lot of each other that day. If he doesn't, then he will see a lot of safety help. Guys like Julio, AJG, Calvin, and Demaryius see a lot of bracket coverage but the still beat it for big plays. You just don't bench these guys in season long leagues. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byroz Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Ill start Julio regardless, and hopefully reap the benefits. if i play you in other leagues, please bench him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InTomWeTrust Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 what about grimes? peterson is soft vs top wrs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shorttynaz Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 If you're leaning on a person to get hurt, that shows how much confidence you have in that player. And if you made a good trade, you shouldn't be too pissed off. I'm sure you won't get scraps for Julio. You might even improve your team if you can get 2 studs for 1. I'm not at all leaning on an injury - I'm just saying - you can't plan for who a player "might" face in 2 months from now. And what if the Panthers decide to play cat and mouse and put Norman on Hankerson in week 14 and then put him on Jones in week 16. To make a move now based on "what if" for a game 6 weeks from now - pretty stupid if you ask me. If you can get max value for Jones now - so be it - make the deal - but I'm not out shopping him out looking for the "best I can get" based on who he may face in late December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeconsumer Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 I try to stick to the "start your studs" strategy, even in brutal matchups. Sometimes you can just out-think yourself in fantasy. However, perhaps if I get bored tomorrow I will try to put together an analysis of WR1's vs teams with shutdown corners. No promises. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InTomWeTrust Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 And sitting julio this year is moronic... thats like sitting randy moss the year him and brady went off.. you just dont do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
popcrnchicken Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 I'm not at all leaning on an injury - I'm just saying - you can't plan for who a player "might" face in 2 months from now. And what if the Panthers decide to play cat and mouse and put Norman on Hankerson in week 14 and then put him on Jones in week 16. To make a move now based on "what if" for a game 6 weeks from now - pretty stupid if you ask me. If you can get max value for Jones now - so be it - make the deal - but I'm not out shopping him out looking for the "best I can get" based on who he may face in late December. You make some great points. I have a question for you: would you start Dalton in week 14 at PIT and week 16 at DEN? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shorttynaz Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 You make some great points. I have a question for you: would you start Dalton in week 14 at PIT and week 16 at DEN?Never said they're favorable matchups but I'm still not looking to move someone based on "what ifs". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pun Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 (edited) Lol I don't even have Julio, and I didn't say you need to sit him. In the OP I said "obviously it's not like you must sit Julio against these guys, but it should lessen your expectations for studs." It's just something I take into account. If you want some good examples for this season: Revis held Edelman to 5 pts week 7 while Amendola racked up his season high 14 pts Norman held Evans to 3 pts week 4 while V-Jax racked up his season high, 20 pts Denver and GB last week. Denver pretty much every week in fact. Someone on Miami (see paragraph below) held Hopkins to 5 pts week 7 while Washington racked up a season high 24 Revis held Hilton to 4 pts week 2 while Moncrief had his season high of 18 Revis held Cooper to 4 pts last week while Crabtree scored 16 Norman held Hilton to 1 pt last week while Andre racked up 14 and Fleener 10 But really the point I had in mind with this thread is related to what BA Baracus said about how top CBs might not always shadow the other teams' best WR. I was wondering if someone knew which teams tend to put their best CB on the best WR and which teams will just line up on one side regardless. Also, related to what InTomWeTrust said, I'm no expert on CBs to begin with, so I was wondering if people agreed with the list I made in the OP, if there's anyone I missed (see Hopkins above - I feel like Miami, the Bills, SD, Baltimore and a few others may have 'shutdown corners'). Yeah of course it doesn't mean you should sit Julio I'm just saying it's something that I take into account. The only real conclusions I've made are that Revis and Norman are guys who do shadow the best WR on the other team, and probably Trufant and Sherman as well, and that Denver will probably shut down pretty much anyone. The other conclusion I've come to is that WR2s and TEs usually benefit when playing the Jets or Panthers. But I was hoping yall could expand on that. Edited November 7, 2015 by pun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
popcrnchicken Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Never said they're favorable matchups but I'm still not looking to move someone based on "what ifs". I'm not trying to make a point, I'm seriously asking haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeconsumer Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 (edited) Alright, I guess I got bored, so here's a quick and dirty analysis. I compiled week 1-8 2015 data in PPR to determine how much player's points scored varied from their average during a week they played a team with a "shutdown corner". I utilized PFFs top 10 cornerbacks to determine this. It resulted in 9 teams. The top-10 WRs have averaged 20.6 PPG far this season. vs Shutdown: averaged 17.6 PPG (-14.4%). vs Everyone else: averaged 21.3 PPG (+3.2%). The mid-range WRs (#11-25) have averaged 14.6 PPG this season. vs Shutdown: averaged 13.7 PPG (-5.9%). vs Everyone else: averaged 16.7 PPG (+13.6%). Feel free to draw your own conclusions, but don't read into this too much, small sample size and whatnot. However it is interesting to note that the top-10 with a bad matchup still (slightly) outperformed the mid-range with a good matchup. EDIT: And if anyone wants to know why I chose 10 corners instead of 2 or 3, it's because I wanted more data points. Or the whole part about shadowing one player vs one side of the field, ain't nobody got time for that. In general my methodology has a lot of flaws, but this isn't a dissertation. Edited November 7, 2015 by timeconsumer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pun Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 (edited) The top-10 WRs have averaged 20.6 PPG far this season. vs Shutdown: averaged 17.6 PPG (-14.4%). vs Everyone else: averaged 21.3 PPG (+3.2%). The mid-range WRs (#11-25) have averaged 14.6 PPG this season. vs Shutdown: averaged 13.7 PPG (-5.9%). vs Everyone else: averaged 16.7 PPG (+13.6%). Feel free to draw your own conclusions, but don't read into this too much, small sample size and whatnot. However it is interesting to note that the top-10 with a bad matchup still (slightly) outperformed the mid-range with a good matchup. it would be interesting to see basically this analysis, but if you used the #1 WR on each time vs the #2 WR on each team, because the "shutdown corners" are still going to go after most of the 11-25 WRs since they're the best WR on their team (except for a few case eg Hurns, Sanders, Moncrief). Would you mind letting me know which are the top 10 corners? I think you need a subscription to really get anything from that site. Edited November 7, 2015 by pun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeconsumer Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 (edited) it would be interesting to see basically this analysis, but if you used the #1 WR on each time vs the #2 WR on each team, because the "shutdown corners" are still going to go after most of the 11-25 WRs since they're the best WR on their team (except for a few case eg Hurns, Sanders, Moncrief). Would you mind letting me know which are the top 10 corners? I think you need a subscription to really get anything from that site. Yeah, I thought about that, but I just wasn't that committed to this (because it still wouldn't be worth all that much, there's just too many other flaws). But I still think the comparison of your top-10 players bad matchups vs mid-range good matchup is interesting, because isn't that often the decision? For example: Do I start Brown vs Carolina or Jarvis Landry vs Houston? Top 10 corners according to PFF are: Josh Norman, Tyrann Mathieu, Chris Harris Jr, Ronald Darby, Adam Jones, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Janoris Jenkins, Captain Munnerlyn, Darrelle Revis, and Patrick Peterson. I'm sure many will disagree with this list, I have some disagreements of my own. But like I said, my methodology has plenty of flaws, this is mostly for fun. Edited November 7, 2015 by timeconsumer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shorttynaz Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 I'm not trying to make a point, I'm seriously asking haha.Nah I get it man - just my take is one that goes with the ole saying, "Always start your studs". If someone offered me Julio today I'd take a long hard look at a way I could acquire him even knowing he doesn't come with an easy ff playoff schedule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pun Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 Top 10 corners according to PFF are: Josh Norman, Tyrann Mathieu, Chris Harris Jr, Ronald Darby, Adam Jones, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Janoris Jenkins, Captain Munnerlyn, Darrelle Revis, and Patrick Peterson. is that in order? i'm guessing Revis isn't number 9... sorry to be a pain but would you be able to give the order? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeconsumer Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Actually that was in numerical order. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeconsumer Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Probably beating a dead horse here, but I made a few tweaks to the analysis, particularly the teams I used to identify tough matchups, as the more I screwed around on PFF the more I disliked their rankings. I settled on the following teams being considered difficult matchups for WRs because of a top cover corner: Car, Ari, Den, NYJ, Sea, Atl, Ind, Buf. Same as last time, rather than focusing on WR1 vs WR2, I thought it best to focus on how the top-end players performed vs these secondaries compared to some mid-range receivers. Because as FF owners that is the decision we are faced with, do I start my top wideout vs Revis or do I start a lesser WR with an easy matchup? Not to mention that was kind of the theme of this thread, sitting stud WRs. Because my list of tough matchups is smaller this time, I ended up selecting specific top-end WRs that have faced these secondaries to measure. These WRs are: Green, Marshall, Hopkins, Edelman, and OBJ. These receivers have averaged as a group 20.7 PPG in PPR this season. vs tough matchups: 18.6 PPG (-10%) vs easy matchups : 21.7 PPG (+5%) The next group I chose the #11-20 receivers (as measured in PPG this season). These receivers have averaged as a group 15.2 PPG in PPR this season. vs tough matchups: 11.6 PPG (-24%) vs easy matchups : 17.7 PPG (+17%) Overall very similar results to the last analysis. I still find it notable that the top receivers averaged more PPG in the toughest matchups than the lower tier (but still very talented) receivers in an easier matchup. Does this mean ASYS has been validated as a strategy? Of course not. Again we are working with a very limited data set, subjective rankings of cornerbacks, game flow issues, QB issues, injury issues, and so forth. But during my time working on a few methodologies I found that almost every scenario I threw at this, the group of top wideouts (I tried several) always averaged more PPG in a tough matchup than the group of mid-range wideouts in easy matchups. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pun Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 Props on doing all that man. I still don't quite agree with some of your premises (no beef though), particularly this: Same as last time, rather than focusing on WR1 vs WR2, I thought it best to focus on how the top-end players performed vs these secondaries compared to some mid-range receivers. Because as FF owners that is the decision we are faced with, do I start my top wideout vs Revis or do I start a lesser WR with an easy matchup? Not to mention that was kind of the theme of this thread, sitting stud WRs. I think that an equally interesting "theme" is - do I start WR2s vs teams with top CBs? For instance, should I start Hurns against the Jets this week? If you look at some of the examples I gave above, WR2s have had their BEST games of the season against teams with shutdown corners (Nate Washington, V-Jax, and Andre/Fleener vs CAR, Amendola, Crabtree, and Moncrief vs NYJ). I think that an equally important conclusion (that I at least have drawn from this) is that WR2s (I don't mean FF WR2s, I mean like the 2nd guy on a team's depth chart) are very likely to have big games against teams with these corners, particular the Jets and Panthers. I wish I could think of a way to modify the analysis you're doing but it's not quite clicking. One other thing I'd like to add though is that I don't think "the decision" is starting your 11-25 ranked WR over your 1-10 ranked WR, because leagues usually start 2-4 WRs anyway, so the decision is more like, "should I start my #3 WR over my #2WR?" Does that make sense? For example if my WRs for this week are these (hypothetical): 1. ODB vs Houston (OBD is ranked #3 in my league) 2. TY Hilton vs Panthers (Hilton is #16) 3. Allen Hurns vs Jets (Hurns is actually #14 in my league but roll with it for this example) I might prefer starting Hurns aganist the Jets over Hilton against the Panthers since Revis will be shadowing Robinson, leaving Hurns as Bortles' top target, and Norman will be all over Hilton, forcing Luck to look elsewhere. ODB is gonna start no matter what in this scenario. Does that make sense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeconsumer Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 (edited) Oh it makes plenty of sense. I had tried to do a similar analysis earlier, but there just wasn't enough data to come up with anything worthwhile. I would have to also gather and analyze data from prior years with similar defensive setups to really get a decent picture. The general idea is that I would compare the average PPG and amount of targets of a group of WR2s and see how much their production fluctuated across the matchups. But unless I feel like spending an hour doing data collection, we may never know. They may offer a similar analysis on rotoviz, but don't pay for that (I didn't pay for PFF either, I used a 1 day free trial).\ EDIT: After thinking about it, I figured I probably had enough data to at least do a basic comparison of targets and points. So here it goes. Group of WR2s: Hurns, Amendola, Moncrief, Crabtree, Washington, R. Matthews, Snead. Defenses: Carolina and NYJ Total Average targets per game: 7.26 Average points per game (PPR): 14.02 vs Car/NYJ Average targets per game: 7.63 Average points per game (PPR): 14.14 vs Everyone else Average targets per game: 7.19 Average points per game (PPR): 13.85 Edited November 7, 2015 by timeconsumer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pun Posted November 7, 2015 Author Share Posted November 7, 2015 I don't think you'd have to account for targets though as QBs simply throw the ball less to WRs being covered by guys like Revis and Norman, no? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timeconsumer Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 (edited) I don't think you'd have to account for targets though as QBs simply throw the ball less to WRs being covered by guys like Revis and Norman, no? So if the WR1 is seeing fewer targets, isn't the idea that the WR2 would see a larger share instead and result in the uptick in production you are expecting? Oh btw, not sure if you saw but I edited the post above with a brief comparison. Edited November 7, 2015 by timeconsumer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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