Week 7 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Mojo Rising]

I've got the next article written up and graphics ready to go. I think it will be a very helpful article, it's entitled:

 

Perception of Home Field Advantage vs. ATS results

 

Only problem: the google blog site I usually post these things to (and upload the .bmp images) is not allowing me to upload images, and it's been a problem for them for a week.

 

Anyone know of a site I can host these images so at least I can provide a target link to them? Thanks is advance.

 

 

Dre, I use imageshack......its free and easy to upload images and link to them: http://imageshack.us/

 

on another note......................................................

 

I just read all the bull**** that was going on these last couple of days and it reminds me of the time last year when some jackass came on the Gamblers(Anonymous) thread complaining about how we should be talking about FF and not waging......

 

my response stays the same.......... If you dont like it, then dont come in here!

 

Keep up the good work Dre, I (as most) appreciate everything you post....

 

With that said, I'm loving: PIT -3.5, TEN/HOU over 38.5, WAS -8.5

[Steeltown Dre]

Dre, I use imageshack......its free and easy to upload images and link to them: http://imageshack.us/

 

on another note......................................................

 

I just read all the bull**** that was going on these last couple of days and it reminds me of the time last year when some jackass came on the Gamblers(Anonymous) thread complaining about how we should be talking about FF and not waging......

 

my response stays the same.......... If you dont like it, then dont come in here!

 

Keep up the good work Dre, I (as most) appreciate everything you post....

 

With that said, I'm loving: PIT -3.5, TEN/HOU over 38.5, WAS -8.5

 

Thanks Mojo. I just google searched and found something called picoodle and used that. Once google blogs fixes the glitch, I'll upload properly to the blog and hopefully next week I won't have the same problem.

 

My initial pass combined w/ my system has me targeting the following plays. Most will be re-evaluated and final plays will get made and posted Saturday or Sunday. I've made a couple already...

 

Buf

Pit

Jac

I like both Was/NYG to win and by a safe margin, but w/ the O-Line in shambles for the Skins, I don't like the large number of points. May tease both down.

 

I'm still paying attention to the bye week system plays of Dal/Sea/Pit/Ind/Det. Also looking at all the plays my system generated which I listed here:

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?s=&a...t&p=2240236

 

Remember w/ the O/Us, my strongest play was Ari/Was over. But my system does not take into account Warner's injury or the O-Line for the Skins. So that will certainly factor into the total and l'll make my decisions accordingly.

[Mojo Rising]

I like both Was/NYG to win and by a safe margin, but w/ the O-Line in shambles for the Skins, I don't like the large number of points. May tease both down.

 

With Dansby out, Arizona's defense will be missing a key figure....should bump the Skins' offense up a little, right?

[Steeltown Dre]

With Dansby out, Arizona's defense will be missing a key figure....should bump the Skins' offense up a little, right?

 

Losing Dansby definitely hurts - he was their leading tackler. But take a look at the Skins O-Line.

 

They lose arguably their most consistent O-Linemen the 1st week of the season in Jansen. Then Randy Thomas went on IR after week 2. They lost to the only great D-Line they have faced (per FO's numbers, NYG's D-Line is ranked 4th against the run and 5th against the pass). The Skins beat Detroit who has a below avg D-Line, and lost to GB's 11th ranked D-Line (against the run, 13th against the pass).

 

But against GB, they lost 3 of their O-Linemen. It's not certain who will play, I'll post a link below. But it will have to be a wait and see if these guys will start and/or how effective they will be and how long they'll go.

 

Ari's D-Line is ranked 5th against the run (1 spot below NYG) and 12th against the pass. The 2nd best D-Line the Skins have faced. And at a time when their O-Line is in the worst shape.

 

The Skins O-Line was ranked 17th in running the ball and 14th in pass protection. Right in the middle of the league. Ari's O-Line is 6th in run blocking and 2nd in pass protection. Washington's D-Line is ranked 18th against the run and 14th against the pass.

 

In other words, Ari's O-Line/D-Line ranks above Washington's in run or pass.

 

So I am concerned about Washington's O-Line problems, but the healing time could allow them to be fine.

 

Now, overall the Skins D a much stronger unit than Arizona's. Again, my system is showing a Skins win and cover, and I think they will, but I'm just not as confident at this point in the week as I am on some of my other plays/potential plays.

 

Link to that article: http://redskins.com/news/newsDetail.jsp?id=30377

[Steeltown Dre]

I posted this elsewhere, so I thought I'd share it here as well. Just kind of builds on my earilier article I posted here...

 

To those who think the Den/Pit line is fishy or a trap

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

You obviously think Pit should be favored by more than 3.5, right?

 

So please tell me, how many games in Mile High in the last 15 years has an opponent playing in Denver been favored by 3.5 points or more? In other words, when in the last 15 years has Denver been a home dog of +3.5 or more points?

 

The answer: Zero games in the last 15 years.

 

The last time, and only time since 1989, that Denver has been a home dog of more than 3 points (prior to this week) was in 1992 against the Dallas Cowboys.

 

That was a week 14 matchup, in which Denver had gone 7-5 up to that point in the season, and had the 21st ranked rushing offense going up against the 10-2 Dallas Cowboys, with their #1 ranked rushing Defense.

 

The Cowboys also had the #6 ranked Passing Offense, the #4 ranked Rushing Offense going up against Denver's 24th ranked rushing defense and 13th ranked passing defense.

 

In a total mismatch, in the year Dallas went on to win the SuperBowl, Dallas was a 9.5 point road favorite. They won the game but didn't cover.

 

Now, think of all the other great teams who have traveled to Mile High Stadium since 1989. And none of them were favored by more than 3 points.

 

Since 1989, Denver has been home dogs only 9 times. That's 18 years and only 9 home dogs. If you look at the last 15 years, they have been home dogs only 4 times. And each time, they were 3 point home dogs.

 

So let's cut the crap that this is a trap/fishy line. Denver is NEVER a home dog and if they are, it's 3 points. Pittsburgh is a solid team, but they are not the Patriots. They were 8-8 last season and 2 games ago, in their 2nd road game of the year, were beaten by the Arizona Cardinals by 7 points.

 

This line is right were it should be in my opinion (from a linesetting perspective). That does not mean I don't see value in the line, but it's not a trap.

 

If you think the Broncos will win or cover, take the 3.5 and hope it comes down to a FG game or better for you. If you think the Steelers get it done on the road w/ a superior team, lay the 3.5 or buy to 3. But don't pretend the Steelers should actually be favored by more than 3.5 given historical lines that have been set at Mile High.

 

Now, a couple of things I think can be of value in your decision making:

 

#1. Please look here: http://img28.picoodle.com/img/img28/...Hm_49749da.png

 

You will see that although Denver has won a great number of their home games over the last 5 seasons, they have one of the worst home cover %s. In addition, they are THE WORST in terms of home win% minus home cover %.

 

#2. As a home dog in those 9 games, Denver has lost only 1 ATS (they pushed 2). They have gone 6-1-2 as a home dog since 1989. They won in 2002 as a 3 point dog to STL and pushed in 1999 as a 3 point dog to MIN.

 

So what does this mean? It means Denver's "Mile High" Advantage is not really an advantage. But publicly, on ESPN and in the media, it's played up and the public buys it. However, when Denver gets played as the underdog, they've responded in the past. So it's up to you to cap the game and see if you think they will respond on Sunday.

 

But if you're taking the Broncos just because you think it's a "fishy" line or a "trap", I suggest you look at the facts and reassess your reasoning.

[rattsass]

I like it. I knew I liked Pitts -3 for a reason, now I know why. Denver has lost 6-8 at home going back to last season. I see no other way to play this one.

[matt770]

Excellent job as always gentlemen. I have to admit I read this thread every week only for help with my survivor picks, I don't bet on games.

 

So a question for you experts, which combo do you like better over the next two weeks:

 

NYG over SF this week, then Indy over Carolina (in Carolina) next week

or

WAS over ARI this week, then NYG over Miami next week, in London

 

Keep in mind these are survivor (straight up) picks.

 

Thanks for any input.

[Gdawg]

Excellent job as always gentlemen. I have to admit I read this thread every week only for help with my survivor picks, I don't bet on games.

 

So a question for you experts, which combo do you like better over the next two weeks:

 

NYG over SF this week, then Indy over Carolina (in Carolina) next week

or

WAS over ARI this week, then NYG over Miami next week, in London

 

Keep in mind these are survivor (straight up) picks.

 

Thanks for any input.

 

I don't see how you can go wrong with either one!

[Steeltown Dre]

Excellent job as always gentlemen. I have to admit I read this thread every week only for help with my survivor picks, I don't bet on games.

 

So a question for you experts, which combo do you like better over the next two weeks:

 

NYG over SF this week, then Indy over Carolina (in Carolina) next week

or

WAS over ARI this week, then NYG over Miami next week, in London

 

Keep in mind these are survivor (straight up) picks.

 

Thanks for any input.

 

I obviously haven't had a chance to cap next week's games, but I can tell you from my opinion: There's no telling what could happen when you fly Eli across the pond in the first regular season game in the UK. The Giants have been playing good football of late, but let's see how Miami does this week without Chambers. Of the top I think NYG will beat Mia in the UK, but I'm no where near as comfortable w/ predicting that as I am predicting an Indy win over Car. You also have SF playing a 1pm game on the East Coast. I don't have the numbers here, but I do know the "theory" of those teams not performing as well. I would have to do the research, though, to give you a true number. Anyhow, I'd lean to your first situation, but not because I don't see the Skins winning, it's the following game that I'm more concerned about the unknowns....

[Bronco Billy]

From the Walker thread:

 

This would be a great week to play PIT -3 1/2.

 

Walker is out, Bailey looks like he might be too, PIT will shut down DEN's run pretty well with the DEN O-line injuries, and Parker should have a great day running the ball.

 

If you're a nickel bettor, this ought to be worth at least a dime.

 

If you like DEN like some on this thread do & haven't made the play yet, I would strongly urge you to back off now.

[Steeltown Dre]

saw it- not a bad piece - since it was aimed at Joe public who doesn't have any gambling knowledge- I had Dr. Bob's pics in NCAA for a couple years- but unfortunately I really didn't know he was legit. I think most decent cappers clean up more in the NCAA's- just more games, and spots to gain an edge IMO.

 

off topic a bit, but a good NCAA service I have used hit their Big 10 GOY an incredible 17/20 years- and at their peak where effecting the Vegas line by as much as a

4-6 point movement, it was insane. The game his again this year with Illinois over Wisky..............

 

The main guy since moved on, and it isn't as solid anymore- but they had an incredible run in the 90's.

 

ok, back to the NFL

 

Here's a direct link to the video guys:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/video/video?id=3066691

 

Dr. Bob is sure happy to talk about his winning %, but this year, he's been piss poor. Remember, College Football is his bread and butter. NFL he's lucky to hit 50%.

 

In college he's 12-24 on his selections this season. That's right, 33%. And he has this "star system", which rates games 2 stars or 3 stars, whathaveyou. According to him, he's 31-60 on a star basis. Essentially, say a star is $100 for argument's sake. So a 2 star would be $200 and a 3 star would be $300.

 

A 31-60 record means he's "won 31 stars" but "lost 60 stars". It's a clever way to IGNORE JUICE which everyone else would be losing on top. Essentially, by his accounting he's won $3,100 and lost $6,000, netting a negative $2,900 on the season. But you have to remember how bets work. If you want to win $100 for every "star", you have to wager $110 on a standard -110 juice. So that when you win, you have won $100 or 1 star. But when you lose, you've lost $110 or 1.1 stars.

 

So really, if he's lost 60 "stars", he's lost not $6,000 but $6,600.

 

So he's not down $2,900, he's down $3,500. That's pretty terrible in his "bread and butter". Just goes to show you not only does everyone have their bad weeks, but some have bad seasons too.

[Steeltown Dre]

From the Walker thread:

If you like DEN like some on this thread do & haven't made the play yet, I would strongly urge you to back off now.

 

Good info. Following injuries is an important part of capping. Nice to hear from a local about the team's situation. Thanks.

[Gdawg]

It's a clever way to IGNORE JUICE which everyone else would be losing on top.

 

I wish I could figure out how to ignore juice

 

Thanks Dre, good stuff as always

[Gdawg]

Good info. Following injuries is an important part of capping. Nice to hear from a local about the team's situation. Thanks.

 

I put in for PIT -3 early this morning, it's now at -3.5 @ Bookmaker...

[rattsass]

I'm back! Hit on Rutgers +3 last night. Also put them in a teaser with Saints -2, and in a parlay with Bills +3. Add Bills +3 to my list of plays.

[Gdawg]

I'm back! Hit on Rutgers +3 last night. Also put them in a teaser with Saints -2, and in a parlay with Bills +3. Add Bills +3 to my list of plays.

 

 

Good work ratt! I too like BUF +3, already put it in.

[Trots]

Good work ratt! I too like BUF +3, already put it in.

Never bet against your home team. Bad Karma.

[Mr Cliche]

I didn't realize this was a kissy-huggy thread. We all like to give each other a ittle "rub" from time to time, and its all in good fun. Look back at the Week 3 thread, when Menudo was giving me grief for picking the Eagles a couple weeks (since they are my home team)...I gave it right back to him. No big deal.

 

Similarly last night, Rat gave me a "rough night" post, and I responded with a friendly wink. No offense taken.

 

I'm not sure where this thread got so sensitive, that we couldn't give each other the business from time to time. I've posted on this thread for two years since its inception by Dre, and never was it a place where we couldn't learn and have a little fun with each other.

 

Oh well....carry on.

 

 

Speak for yourself

[Gdawg]

Never bet against your home team. Bad Karma.

 

It's business, not personal. Those that bet with their hearts often end up with empty wallets.

Edited October 19, 2007 by Gdawg

[Bronco Billy]

It's business, not personal. Those that beat with their hearts often end up with empty wallets.

 

+1

 

Sage advice, my friend.

[JeffFisher]

Here's a direct link to the video guys:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/video/video?id=3066691

 

Dr. Bob is sure happy to talk about his winning %, but this year, he's been piss poor. Remember, College Football is his bread and butter. NFL he's lucky to hit 50%.

 

In college he's 12-24 on his selections this season. That's right, 33%. And he has this "star system", which rates games 2 stars or 3 stars, whathaveyou. According to him, he's 31-60 on a star basis. Essentially, say a star is $100 for argument's sake. So a 2 star would be $200 and a 3 star would be $300.

 

A 31-60 record means he's "won 31 stars" but "lost 60 stars". It's a clever way to IGNORE JUICE which everyone else would be losing on top. Essentially, by his accounting he's won $3,100 and lost $6,000, netting a negative $2,900 on the season. But you have to remember how bets work. If you want to win $100 for every "star", you have to wager $110 on a standard -110 juice. So that when you win, you have won $100 or 1 star. But when you lose, you've lost $110 or 1.1 stars.

 

So really, if he's lost 60 "stars", he's lost not $6,000 but $6,600.

 

So he's not down $2,900, he's down $3,500. That's pretty terrible in his "bread and butter". Just goes to show you not only does everyone have their bad weeks, but some have bad seasons too.

 

 

that's why you should play somewhere where you can get better juice than -110

 

i've been using him for years

 

Only 2003 has he had a bad run like this....

 

College Best Bets 423-285-14 (60%) on a Star Basis Since 2004

58-35-2 (62%) on College Best Bets Rated 3-Stars or Higher Last 3 Years

 

He was incredible in 2005, i think he hit close to 70% in college.

 

in college he breaks down like this over the past few years:

 

Year 5-Star 4-Star 3-Star 2-Star Total Star Basis

2006 1-0 7-3 18-15-1 19-16-2 45-34-3 125-89-7

2005 1-0 5-2 21-3-1 24-16-1 51-21-2 136-49-5

2004 0-0 0-1 21-17 34-16-1 55-34-1 131-87-2

2003 0-0 1-2 16-17-1 29-36-1 46-55-2 110-131-5

2002 0-0 3-1 17-20-1 29-23-2 49-44-3 121-110-7

2001 0-0 0-2 13-7 22-19 35-28 83-67

2000 0-0 2-1 15-8 30-16 47-25 113-60

1999 0-0 1-0 23-9 25-22-1 49-31-1 123-71-2

Total 2-0 19-12 144-9 212-164-8 377-272-12 942-664-28

Pct. 100% 61.3% 60.0% 56.4% 58.1% 58.7%

 

 

here is a great article on how he recommends money management with his picks

 

http://www.drbobsports.com/doc_is_in.cfm#money

 

if it's an investment, then you should be able to make it through rough patches or else you're probably betting too much per star

[JeffFisher]

well the formatting didn't come out well on that post...sorry guys

[Steeltown Dre]

that's why you should play somewhere where you can get better juice than -110

 

That's correct, however many outlets the take the standard -110 line, so I use that as an example.

 

Secondly, I appreciate the record breakdown - I find in interesting that you'd have that info so quick at your fingertips. Might you work for the Doc?

 

Finally, I will also say this:

 

Although his "star rating" may have been good last year, the avg joe in no way, shape or form came close to hitting those winning % on his plays. Here's the reason: Dr. Bob releases his line at 11am or whenever. As the show says and I know from watching it live myself, the lines shifted in seconds.

 

When Dr. Bob says: This play is a 2* at -12 or better, Dr. Bob is rating that game -12 and 2 stars. But avg joe can't get it for -12 anymore. He's getting it for -14 or worse.

 

Therefore, the avg joe does 1 of 2 things. He either spends a crapload of juice and buys down to -12. He may now have the same winning % as Dr. Bob, but when he loses, he's losing a hell of a lot more than 10% juice, so he's getting creamed in the long run.

 

Or, he does not play the game, and looks for other plays where the line hasn't moved. Chances are, w/ the # of people buying Dr. Bob's plays, there aren't many where the line hasn't moved. So the avg joe's win % is going to be much different than Dr. Bobs, depending on which games he's able to play.

 

Bottom line, while Dr. Bob may have hit some good plays in years past, he's been miserable this year. And although his win % is high, guaranteed his client's win % is not as high for the reasons stated above. Not hating on the guy, just speaking the truth. Obvioulsly his computer model is pretty advanced and I commend him for that. Hopefully he turns it around for his clients the rest of this year. Personally, I see his plays every week but never play any of them. That's just me, though.

[Mojo Rising]

That's correct, however many outlets the take the standard -110 line, so I use that as an example.

 

Secondly, I appreciate the record breakdown - I find in interesting that you'd have that info so quick at your fingertips. Might you work for the Doc?

 

I was thinking the same thing.....or maybe even being graced by the Doc himself.

[JeffFisher]

nah...not working for him or anything

 

you can find all that info on his site at www.drbobsports.com

 

he tells you flat out the way to win using his picks with his money management strategy, if you were betting exactly how he suggests then you would be making the same percentages or close to it of dr bob

 

steeltown i think you are right on in regards to your comments about the average joe....there are probably a ton of people who don't follow a strategy and spend a ton of money on juice and bet too much per star and so on and so on.....money management is such a huge part of gambling strategy....bottom line is he makes it clear that buying points kills you in the long run, and he can't really be to blame for poor money management

 

anyway, in regards to his best bets....he tells you where to bet the line and if it reaches a certain line then it's no longer a best bet and thus no longer recommended

 

the line moves didn't start happening big until 2006....with his countdown page for his members you do have a split second alot of times to get your bet in at the most preferred line if you are fast....i'm almost certain (but not positive and i may email him and find out) but he grades his picks on what the lines were at kickoff....so if he has a 4 star on thursday and on saturday it's down to a 3 star he grades it as a 3 star

 

lots of times he'll have a game that the line is say, tennessee -11. He'll have a 3 star bet on maybe -12 or better, 2 stars on -14 to -12, and no play on -14.5 or worse....so there are parameters....alot of times people are betting just to bet

 

but you're right...bottom line is he has been attrocius this year and that is fact.....but he's using the same math models and situational analsis he has for the past many years and history says it will turn around...maybe this year, maybe not.....i'm by no means trying to sell anybody on his service, it's just been pretty good to me

 

steeltown, i appreciate your info weekly...i'm not much of a poster but i read the board regularly....it takes alot of time for you to do these weekly threads and it's much appreciated

 

cheers