Next Year's #1 pick

[Grimm74]

My playoff games not looking good. So lets look ahead...Who are your top 3 or 5?

 

I guess LT, Peterson, and Addai...in what order I am not sure. I would prefer probably Adda. Then again may be it wont be a WR.

[dmarc117]

come on........

 

grossman

berrian

benson

peterson

hester

olsen

bears d

[G.K.Trey]

sounds about right on the top 3 , but more impportantly is will Brady go in the 1st round?

[keggerz]

Mr. No Respect Westbrook

[BS Miscreant]

sounds about right on the top 3 , but more impportantly is will Brady go in the 1st round?

They keep that O intact and you know a bunch of folks will take him there.

[keggerz]

sounds about right on the top 3 , but more impportantly is will Brady go in the 1st round?

JAYBLACK says Brady will be the consensus #1 pick next yr

 

no seriously thats what he said

[JAYBLACK]

LOL

[nlrobert]

I have been a commissioner in my league for over 15 years and I spend a lot of time (probably more than I should) researching players, statistics, and trends. I typically finish at the top or near the top of my league every year, so I like to think my research pays off. Luck always has a lot to do with things, but drafting smart always factors heavily into the equation. The scoring and position rules for a given league always play a big part in how you draft, but the last few years have really changed the value of running backs in my opinion. The speed of the game is night and day compared to 5 years ago, and the size and strength of the players has increased as well. The simple truth is that running backs are getting injured at a much more significant pace than any other position and NFL teams are now moving toward the two-headed backfield model. About 40% of the NFL teams are currently using the two-headed backfield approach, and this number seems to grow each year. Even the teams that try and use a single back system seem to lose their starter for at least 2 or 3 games on average due to injruy. I did a quick scan of the running back statistics this season and only 8 of the top 20 running backs (preseason draft rankings) have played in all of their games this year. This number (8) will actually go down after this week due to injuries that happened last week or today.

 

While running back injuries are on the rise and actual running back touches continue to decline, NFL offenses have been redesigned to pass first and run second. The TE position has seen the most significant benefit to this trend over the past 3 years and this once thin position is now very deep across the league. In fact, many leagues still reward TE's with extra points per catch, which elevates the top TE's above most WR's and RB's in many leagues. The extra points per TE reception were originally incorporated into most leagues to help make the TE position relevant. This same theme was also used for receivers to help keep them on par with running backs, but the times have changed and now the TE's and WR's are actually outscoring most RB's.

 

Based on these trends, my objective this year was to trade up in our draft to take Tomlinson at number one or trade down and pick up extra middle round picks. Tomlinson is the only sure thing RB in my mind. He doesn't get injured and he also declines the cover of Madden every year (had to put that in there). I have been able to get LT 2 out of the past 3 years, and my strategy has paid off because I have finished at the top of my league all 3 years. We are in a 14 team league and I traded up to get LT this year. My 2nd pick overall came in the middle of the 4th round, so I literally sold the farm to get LT. However, my one stud/stable running back, combined with 3 solid WR's and 1 top 5 TE has propelled me to the top of my league this year. Most teams grab 2 and sometimes 3 RB's in the first 3 rounds, and the odds say that most of those RB picks either don't produce up to expectations or miss significant time due to injuries. A solid WR in the 3rd or 4th round will typically outperform a RB taken in the mid to late first round, but people still put their faith in running backs and just throw away their early draft picks on players that simply want live up to expectations.

 

My recommendation is to take Tomlinson at 1 or trade down and load up on good WR's and a top TE. You then grab 1 or two decent middle tier RB's and then load up on 2 or 3 of the best backup running backs in the league. History indicates that a portion of the top running backs are going to go down at some point during the season, and a good nest egg of quality backups will pay off huge in the long run. By mid season your team will likely be less impacted by injuries and you will be able to capitalize on running back injuries throughout the league, which strengthens your team and weakens others. This has been my approach for the past few years and it has paid off each season. It will also be my same approach next year!

[keggerz]

LOL

let me guess you saw the thread title and were coming into to post exactly what i said you said earlier, right?