muck Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 ...yes, I know these will change a bunch in future weeks...but, I did the analysis anyhow... I used a combination of (i) backwards looking strength of schedule, (ii) forward looking strength of schedule, (iii) historic margin of victory and (iv) the historic margin of victory of a teams' future opponents to calculate projected W/L % for each team. For example, let's look at the Jets: (i) = 0.000 winning percent of teams already played (i.e, the Jets are 1-0) (ii) = 0.467 winning percent of teams yet to play (i.e., the Jets next 15 games are 7-8 cumulatively after week one) (iii) & (iv) = the Jets won 20-14 last week; the average of all future opponents scored 18.7pts and allowed 19.5pts; because their future opponents allowed fewer points than the Jets scored, I project the average points scored by the Jets to be 19.6pts ... and because the Jets allowed fewer points than their average opponent scored, I project the average points allowed by the Jets to be 18.4pts ... resulting in an expected average Margin of Victory of 1.1pts (rounded) ... and this 1.1pt average margin of victory is compared to the other teams' expected MoV ... ...so, without further adieu... Teams Still Focused On This Year (i.e., 2008 Playoff Teams): 12-4 TEN 12-4 BUF 11-5 DEN 10-6 BAL 10-6 HOU 9-7 NYJ 11-5 CHI 11-5 ARI 9-7 NO 8-8 PHI 10-6 GB 9-7 ATL Looking Ahead to Next Year Already (i.e., 2009 NFL Draft Top Five Picks): 3-13 CLE 5-11 OAK 5-11 STL 5-11 WAS 6-10 KC ...yes, I realize we've only played one week...but, I went ahead and did it anyhow...but, I plan on bringing this to you each week from here on out... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Medal of Honor Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 Cleavland at 3-13? Can I have what you are smoking? It might make the pain from all the Seahawks injuries go away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vonromig Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 It's that math stuff. The kind of thing they force on you when you're in school, claiming you'll use it... Problem is when you see it being used, it makes no sense whatsoever. Von Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Holy Roller Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 Dallas? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted September 11, 2008 Author Share Posted September 11, 2008 It's that math stuff. The kind of thing they force on you when you're in school, claiming you'll use it... Problem is when you see it being used, it makes no sense whatsoever. Von ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted September 11, 2008 Author Share Posted September 11, 2008 (edited) Dallas? Outside looking in ... 8-8 ... Why? Their forward looking strength of schedule is harder than the average team in the league at 0.533 (i.e., the teams in DALs next 15 games went a combined 8-7 in week 1). Next, while they scored 28 points in week one, their next 15 games' worth of opponents only allowed an average of 16.5 points (3.5 points under the league average at this point). Since we're this early in the season, DAL's production was weighted 1/16th and the average of all of their opponents was weighted 15/16ths ... resulting in an "expected points scored" average of 17.2 points / game. Finally, while they allowed only 10 points in week one, their next 15 games' worth of opponents scored 18.7 points ... applying the same 1/16th / 15/16ths weights results in an "expected points allowed" of 18.1 points / game. ...in otherwords, DAL is expected to get outscored ... primarily due to the fact that the teams they are playing were stingy in week one ... As more games are played, the stuff that pops out of the model will look 'better'. It is too early to put out the results ... I should have waited until after week four or so ... but I couldn't help myself. NOTE 1: If the teams that are "supposed to" win next week win, and everyone scores and allows the exact same number of points they scored / allowed last week, DAL's projected record goes to 9-7 and are in the playoffs as the final wildcard from the NFC (behind CHI, ARI, PHI, ATL, and GB) ... the AFC playoff teams are projected to be BUF, TEN, DEN, PIT, NYJ and HOU ... (again), if everyone that is "supposed to" win, wins. NOTE 2: If next week goes as planned, the top five picks in the draft will be (in order) -- CLE, OAK, STL and SEA with WAS and KC tied for the 5th spot. Based on what we've seen so far, I don't know that there would be a lot of problem thinking that at least three or four of these six teams would be picking in the top five next spring ... Edited September 11, 2008 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted September 11, 2008 Author Share Posted September 11, 2008 10-6 HOU ...for example, even though HOU lost their first game of the season, they are in the playoffs due to their very light forward looking strenght of schedule, which is only 0.333 (i.e., only five of their next 15 games' worth of opponents won in week one)... ...and the way I look at it, if their future opponents win 33.3% of the time, if HOU is "average" they should win 66.7% of the time ... but, since HOU is below average, they only win 64% of the time ... but, winning 64% of the time is good enough to make the playoffs ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted September 11, 2008 Author Share Posted September 11, 2008 Cleavland at 3-13? Can I have what you are smoking? It might make the pain from all the Seahawks injuries go away. CLE is projecting poorly due (primarily) to their harder than average forward looking strength of schedule and their lopsided margin of loss in week one. If they lose again in week two, but make it a closer game, their projections will be stronger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 Seattle not included? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted September 11, 2008 Author Share Posted September 11, 2008 Seattle not included? SEA projects (currently) at 7-9, primarily due to the fact that the average of the 15 games still to play allowed more points last week than they scored ... if the margin of victory was flipped, their record would be at least a game or two worse than it is. Remember, this will change a lot after another week or two ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MustOfBeenDrunk Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 i like and look forward to seeing a more accurate testing ,,, say after 5 or 6 games have been played. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 [chevychase]it was my understanding there'd be no math [/chevychase] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 PHL 8-8 ]NOTE 1: If the teams that are "supposed to" win next week win, and everyone scores and allows the exact same number of points they scored / allowed last week, DAL's projected record goes to 9-7 and are in the playoffs as the final wildcard from the NFC (behind CHI, ARI, PHI, ATL, and GB) ... the AFC playoff teams are projected to be BUF, TEN, DEN, PIT, NYJ and HOU ... (again), if everyone that is "supposed to" win, wins. This would be very odd...here's why: You have Philly currently projected at 8-8 after a 38-3 Week 1 win. If Dallas wins this week, it means Philly lost, since they play each other. I can see how the Dallas projection may shift upward to 9-7, but how would they still be porjected to finish BEHIND Philly? If Philly is currently proejcted to finish 8-8, how would they jump up to 10-6 (ahead of Dallas) after losing to them and falling to 1-1? Philly certainly wouldn't be projected at 10-6, ahead of Dallas....right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted September 11, 2008 Author Share Posted September 11, 2008 (edited) This would be very odd...here's why: You have Philly currently projected at 8-8 after a 38-3 Week 1 win. If Dallas wins this week, it means Philly lost, since they play each other. I can see how the Dallas projection may shift upward to 9-7, but how would they still be porjected to finish BEHIND Philly? If Philly is currently proejcted to finish 8-8, how would they jump up to 10-6 (ahead of Dallas) after losing to them and falling to 1-1? Philly certainly wouldn't be projected at 10-6, ahead of Dallas....right? When I said "if everyone scores the same number of points they scored last week" I meant "if the league averages exactly 40pts a game like it did in week one, and everyone has the exact same margin of victory, then..." ...while I realize that the "exact same margin of victory" can't happen, because after week one, PHI had a higher projected record than DAL, when putting together the projected playoff teams, I had assumed that PHI beat DAL this coming week ... so, no, I do not assume that DAL beats PHI and yet remains behind them in the standings ... I have PHI at 11-5 with these sets of assuptions (and DAL at 9-7) ... Again, this will move around quite a bit over the next few weeks. I did something like this last year, and it was real interesting that I was able to tell people early on that BAL was going to do far worse than many expected them to and that SEA and CLE would do far better than many thought they would...we'll see... For giggles, here are the projected winners this weekend: NYJ beats NE BUF beats JAX ARI beats MIA HOU beats BAL PIT beats CLE TEN beats CIN IND beats MIN DEN beats SD KC beats OAK NYG beats STL PHI beats DAL NO beats WAS CHI beats CAR GB beats DET ATL beats TB SF beats SEA Edited September 11, 2008 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 PHI beats DAL System looks very sound.... well done, Muck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted September 11, 2008 Author Share Posted September 11, 2008 (edited) Actually, I just fixed an oversight ... doesn't impact the predictions for this weeks winners, but does impact projected W/L for the season. So... Playoff Teams (assuming 100% accuracy on week 2 predictions): 12-4 NYJ 12-4 PIT 11-5 HOU 10-6 DEN 10-6 BUF 10-6 NE (Tennessee is on the outside also at 10-6) 14-2 CHI (primarily due to their strenght of schedule components) 12-4 ARI 12-4 PHI 9-7 ATL 9-7 NO 9-7 NYG (Dallas is on the outside looking at 8-8) ...and, the top five draft picks go to: 3-13 CLE 3-13 OAK 4-12 SEA 4-12 MIN 4-12 CIN 4-12 SD Edited September 11, 2008 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 System looks very sound.... well done, Muck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Youre Going Down Posted September 11, 2008 Share Posted September 11, 2008 Bears and Cards with best records in NFC. Sounds realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted September 12, 2008 Share Posted September 12, 2008 I love in-depth analysis, good sh1t muck - looking forward to the weekly installments Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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