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Fantasy Football Strategy?/


CrimsonGhost
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So i have definitely had this conversation before with other league mates but i am going to bring it up on these forums to spark a conversation.

 

"I am playing against phillip Rivers. I own Vjax. Obviously I am going to always start which wr think will score the most. However with Vjax being so Boom or Bust do i choose to sit him or start him against my opponent with Rivers."

 

Seems there is more risk starting a wr against an opponent with the QB compared to the other way around.

 

 

(All this being said, Demaryius Thomas, My only other wr option could be risky as well.)

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This is usually great news for me. A WR will usually score more with yards than a QB unless they tend to spread the ball around. I've seen WR with twice as many points as the QB throwing to them.

 

I have Vcrap too but will play him this week. I've suffered through the good and bad but hoping this is the good week.

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Try this.

 

Start Jackson. Following the conclusion of this week's games, note the number of points that he scored.

 

Then, look at your opponent's lineup. Remove Rivers from it and start another QB. Now note the number of points that Jackson scored.

 

Then ponder the results of your strategy and report back.

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So i have definitely had this conversation before with other league mates but i am going to bring it up on these forums to spark a conversation.

 

"I am playing against phillip Rivers. I own Vjax. Obviously I am going to always start which wr think will score the most. However with Vjax being so Boom or Bust do i choose to sit him or start him against my opponent with Rivers."

 

Seems there is more risk starting a wr against an opponent with the QB compared to the other way around.

 

 

(All this being said, Demaryius Thomas, My only other wr option could be risky as well.)

 

The bolded part makes sense, the underlined part does not. You're overthinking it, your opponent having the QB of your WR should not impact your decision.

 

If you think VJax will bust, don't start him. If you think he'll boom, start him. BTW Dem Thomas is not a bad alternative, but relying on the DEN passing game has its risk. However they are facing one of the worst Ds in the league this week.

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This is one of those correlative-based fallacies that never seems to die, no matter how much logic gets applied to the scenario. Look: you start the players you think will produce the most points. You cannot worry about whether your opponent might also benefit if your player performs well. Regardless of whether or not you sit VJax, your opponent will undoubtedly start Rivers, and he is going to post the same points against you no matter if you start VJax or Sam Hurd at WR.

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Also, consider this: suppose Rivers does throw a couple of deep TD bombs to VJax. However, suppose Rivers otherwise sucks this game, throwing two picks, losing a fumble, and going 14-for-38 with VJax getting most of the relevant fantasy love. You could start almost any other NFL quarterback and stomp Rivers at that position, while VJax brings home the bacon on an otherwise poor day for Rivers.

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I was going to bring up almost the same discussion yesterday, although there's a slightly different twist to mine. I've got Dem Thomas. Looking at my lineup only I'd probably not be playing him... I think I have better options and I have a gut feeling that Belichick and his ego are determined to be the ones who shut down the Tebow train and will figure out a way to do so even with a D that has been quite poor.

 

But my opponent definitely will be starting Tebow and he has been locked on to Thomas the last couple weeks. Hard to imagine a scenario where Tebow goes off without Thomas getting his as well. I'm considering Thomas in my lineup more as "protection" against my gut. If I'm right and they both struggle I can live with it. If I'm wrong and Tebow has a strong game and I left Thomas on the bench I'll kick myself. The other thing that factors into my personal situation is I already have Roddy White's 30 pts on the board. I think I can afford to play a little "defense" with Thomas.

 

Coincidentally, VJax is one of my options in place of Thomas...

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Sounds like a cleverly crafted start bench question.

 

It is not a strategy to ever start any player to cover an opponents scoring. It might make you feel like you are doing something special but this is basic math; you start the player think you will score the most points for your team.

 

This is fantasy 101.

 

I actually think Thomas has a much better match up and even though Jackson is a better talent, that talent does not offset the match up so I would be starting Thomas. I have them about 4 points apart.

 

I will say the ceiling is higher for Jackson and if I was a big underdog I would play him in hopes he goes off for multiple scores but that is giving more weight to the luck factor and as a big underdog I would consider taking a bigger risk and gamble with the 4 point differential I have them rated.

Edited by Ice1
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