Cyclones Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 Yes that's the easy part ... what are the pre-flop odds of making a flush by the river when you start with 2 suited cards. 1290092[/snapback] About 15-1 if I am not mistaken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 You are 15 to 1 against making a flush by the river if dealt 2 suited cards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted January 26, 2006 Author Share Posted January 26, 2006 You are 15 to 1 against making a flush by the river if dealt 2 suited cards 1290100[/snapback] I was really hoping to find a website where you could plug scenarios into it ... but show me the math Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 This is the site to use for any pre-flop questions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grits and Shins Posted January 26, 2006 Author Share Posted January 26, 2006 This is the site to use for any pre-flop questions 1290110[/snapback] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Easy n Dirty Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 (edited) I know this much...if you have two suited cards you have an 18% chance of flopping four to the flush... 1289868[/snapback] I believe the odds of flopping four to a flush are 11%. Could be worng, but I know I saw that somewhere. EDIT - couple more I know off the top of my head - if you hold a pocket pair, odds of flopping a set are about 1 in 8. if you hold A-K, odds of pairing up on the flop are 37% I believe (which I guess is the odds of pairing up whenever you hold 2 unpaired cards). Edited January 26, 2006 by Easy n Dirty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 4 to a flush is indeed 8.1 t0 1 A set is 8.3 to 1 A pair with two unpaired cards is 2.5 to 1 A pair or better with two unpaired cards is 2.1 to 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Easy n Dirty Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 ...if you hold A-K, odds of pairing up on the flop are 37% I believe (which I guess is the odds of pairing up whenever you hold 2 unpaired cards). 1290141[/snapback] Ok, I'm a little confused now. The site Big Country links to says the odds of flopping any pair (or better) when holding 2 unpaired cards is 32.4%. It seems to me it would be higher. If I'm holding A-K - there are 6 cards in the deck that give me a pair here (3 K's, 3 A's). So the odds of hitting a pair on the first card are 12% (6 out of 50), then 12.24% on the next one (6 out of 49), and then 12.5% on the third card. So the odds of flopping a pair (or better) are 12% + 12.24% + 12.5% = 36.74%. This jives with the 37% I've seen elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeteebee Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 (edited) I believe the odds of flopping four to a flush are 11%. Could be worng, but I know I saw that somewhere. EDIT - couple more I know off the top of my head - if you hold a pocket pair, odds of flopping a set are about 1 in 8. if you hold A-K, odds of pairing up on the flop are 37% I believe (which I guess is the odds of pairing up whenever you hold 2 unpaired cards). 1290141[/snapback] Can your edit be right? You have 6 outs to make a pair out of 50 cards, then 6 out of 49, then 6 out of 48. Edit-Saw your last post. That looks right. Edited January 26, 2006 by geeteebee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 (edited) Depends on if you are looking for pair only.. or pair or higher. Flopping exactly a pair is 2.5 to 1 against, or about a 28.6% probability. Flopping a pair or higher is 2.1 to 1 against, or about a 32.3% probability Edited January 26, 2006 by Big Country Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Easy n Dirty Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 (edited) Depends on if you are looking for pair only.. or pair or higher. 1290230[/snapback] Not really. The site you linked to says odds of pair or better are 32.4%. I've demonstrated (or tried to) that odds of flopping a pair are 36.7%. These are not reconcilable, one of them is wrong. EDIT - just saw your edit, which I think is wrong. I've shown my math above, which is odds of flopping a pair or better. I'd be interested in seeing the math to support the 32.3% that you are citing. Edited January 26, 2006 by Easy n Dirty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 END - On your example, as you are looking for just a pair, the 37% is wrong as you have to then subtract all the times where you would improve if you do hit your pair on the first card or second card. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Easy n Dirty Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 END - On your example, as you are looking for just a pair, the 37% is wrong as you have to then subtract all the times where you would improve if you do hit your pair on the first card or second card. 1290243[/snapback] OK, so use my math for pair or better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Cherni Posted January 26, 2006 Share Posted January 26, 2006 The odds of flopping a flush are much worse than 1/12. I'm not sure what they are exactly...1/12 seems like the odds you have of making a flush with all 5 cards out there. 1289938[/snapback] If you have suited hole cards the probability of flopping a flush is .84% You also have a 10.9% of flopping a flush draw to 4. 6.4% hitting a flush by the river. 41.6% chance of a backdoor flush draw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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