QB Strength of Schedule

[yo mama]

I was working on my draft sheets and, as I generally do, I'll list each players SoS for this year next to last year's in an attempt to gauge whose schedule got easier or harder. In doing so, a couple things stuck out, using the Huddle's SoS computations (high positive numbers being the best, high negative numbers being the worst):

 

- Brady shares the toughest pasing schedule this year at -5. Last year it was only -2. While I don't expect Brady to crash and burn because of it, I honestly don't know how much - if at all - to discount Brady due to this factor.

- Collins is the only other QB with a -5 passing schedule, but everyone is gushing over his chances this year. Do people not know about how difficult the Raiders' passing schedule is? Do they just not care?

- one of the knocks I've heard on Brees this year is his difficult passing schedule, which DMD has ranked as a -2. However, last year it was -3, so it sounds like his schedule is actually a little easier this year, even if it is one of the more difficult schedules a QB will face this season.

- Last year Manning had a SoS ranked at -3. This year: 1. Yet, there is seemingly no end to the "hate" people dump on Manning's percieved inability to meet or beat last years numbers. With all key skill players returning, and a much softer schedule, I don't see why this isn't possible. (Note to self: make an effort to swindle Manning from his owners in all leagues).

- Brooks, who had a nice 3 last year, drops to -2 this year. Hmmm. Maybe this isn't the year to target the guy.

- Palmer, who many have expressed unrequited man-love for this year, goes from -8 last year to a relatively softer -2 this year, so maybe there's something to those high expectations.

- Warner goes from a -3 in NY last year to a 3 in AZ this year. Given the better WR corps and no serious threat to his job from McCown, I'm not sure why Warner isn't getting more love as a back up QB.

- whoever will be chucking the pig skin in Miami will face a -4 SoS. As if you needed another reason to stay away.

- Pennington faces a tough -4 passing schedule. Between that, his shoulder, and Coles toe...

 

This list goes on and on. But how much stock should be put in this kind of SoS analysis? How much does it affect how you draft?

Edited August 3, 2005 by yo mama

[darin3]

I was working on my draft sheets and, as I generally do, I'll list each players SoS for this year next to last years in an attempt to gauge whose schedule got easier or harder.  In doing so, a couple things stuck out, using the Huddle's SoS computations (high positive numbers being the best, high negative numbers being the worst):

 

- Brady shares the toughest pasing schedule this year at -5.  Last year it was only -2.  While I don't expect Brady to crash and burn because of it, I honestly don't know how much - if at all - to discount Brady due to that factor.

- Collins is the only other QB with a -5 passing schedule, but everyone is gushing over his chances this year.  Do people not know about how difficult the Raiders' passing schedule is?  Do they just not care?

- one of the knocks I've heard on Brees this year is his difficult passing schedule, which DMD has ranked as a -2.  However, last year it was -3, so it sounds like his schedule is actually a little easier this year, even if it is one of the more difficult schedules a QB will face this season.

- Last year Manning had a SoS ranked at -3.  This year: 1.  Yet, there is seemingly no end to the "hate" people dump on Manning's percieved inability to meet or beat last years numbers.  With all key skill players returning, and a much softer schedule, I don't see why this isn't possible.  (Note to self: make an effort to swindle Manning from his owners in all my leagues).

- Brooks, who had a nice 3 last year, drops to -2 this year.  Hmmm.

- Palmer, who many have expressed gushing man-love for this year, goes from -8 last year to a relatively softer -2 this year, so maybe there's something to those high expectations.

- Warner goes from a -3 in NY last year to a 3 in AZ this year.  Given the better WR corps and no serious threat to his job from McCown, I'm not sure why Warner isn't getting more love as a back up QB.

- whoever will be chucking the pig skin in Miami will face a -4 SoS.  As if you needed another reason to stay away.

- Pennington faces a tough -4 passing schedule.  Between that, his shoulder, and Coles toe...

 

This list goes on and on.  But how much stock should be put in this kind of SoS analysis?  How much does it affect how you draft?

 

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For some reason I put more thought into QB SoS than any other position. RBs, for example, are gonna get handed the rock 20-25 times, regardless of if they're facing Baltimore or the Niners. Of course, they'll most likely get it MORE if they're facing a weaker team... But in the QB's case, they're much more likely to throw for massive amounts of yards and multiple scores (and long TDs - bonus points in my main league) against the extremely weak pass defending defenses.

 

I rarely draft QBs early, and when looking for a 2nd/3rd tier QB, you have to take more than just "name value" into account... and one of the things I look at carefully is SoS.