Thews40 Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 (edited) Take this advice with a grain of salt… it’s free. To make this work you have to have an overall plan going in, and just run where it takes you. Pick it apart, but remember the objective… to win. The way I see it, if I win decent money every 5 years I’ll be ahead. I draft differently every time, and pretty much tanking one position. But, if you draft the right depth, you can wind up with a very odd pair of ducks making the dominating force that wins it all. If nothing else it makes for different teams in multiple leagues. It takes a lot of skill to put together a monster team. It also takes luck… sometimes it’s bad luck. Injuries can’t be predicted, so it takes the right depth to cover it… this is where you vulture. If you’re going to tank RB’s, you take the scraps and draft strength elsewhere. You have to make some trades, but you have to know when to trade them. My favorites this year… Michael Turner – So the LT is sitting on his pot of gold with a Cheshire grin. Then, for no apparent reason, you see a shot at picking up Turner about 6 picks from where he would normally go. You take it and draft Turner, and then go for the next one. L. Betts – He goes too high in most drafts. The guy who takes Portis is going to be keeping a keen eye on Betts. If he takes him high and pays, then that’s the plan. If he lets him slip just a little too far, take him if he comes to you cheap enough, but understand his value. M. Morris – SA wasn’t too healthy last year, and Morris goes very late. Grab him cheap, he is SA’s BU. TJ Duckett – With Kevin Jones on the mend and potentially placed on the PUP list for six weeks, that leaves the Tater to run the show. If Kita hits with his mighty band of WR’s, the middle opens up. If the Tater gets hurt, TJ may be the last man standing. A cheap pickup in the later rounds, that could prove to be a viable RB#2 (he is a TD vulture) on rare occasions. Sammy Morris – A BU RB to a guy wearing a red shirt a week or so ago and Faulk in front of him… very cheap late round pick. C.Sapp – Hometown boy may get his shot. In the world of Shenanigans, you never know what’s gonna happen, but this gamble may pay in week one if Henry and Bell are tweaked a little too much. DeDee Dorsey – Another cheap one. Who knows how Addai is going to hold up this year. Rhodes took the load off, and he may break down? I took Addai and let Dorsey slip… hugh mistake, and I’ll try and fix it before the season starts. Ruben Droughns – Tiki is gone. Droughns has been the starting RB before, and experience means a lot. A.Peterson – Benson is an injury risk, and IMO over-rated on the cheatsheets. T.Heap – Arguably the #2 TE under Gates, but he far and away is the clear #2 IMO. McNair has always been the QB that chips away. They were very good (The Titans) at getting 15 yards on a sustaining drive. Now, with McNair supposedly losing arm strength, I think he’ll focus on it. If you can find the endzone, the fans don’t give a rat’s arse how long it takes to get there. I see McNair looking for Heap as an outlet constantly (PPR). With a better running game, it opens it up if he can kill them with the short game. No matter what happens, if he's anywhere in the 6th, you have to take him and change your plan… even if you have Gates. Remember, you’re shooting the moon, and in a mandatory TE league, a great TE is money… especially from the guy that took a kicker before a TE. Based on ADP (From the draft tracker on drafts done in over 600 drafts in the last two days), you could build this team 1 – Peyton Manning ADP #7 2 – R.Wayne - ADP #27 3 – Antonio Gates – ADP #32 To be safe, you’ll prolly have to take him early in the 3rd. I lucked out at got him at #32 (drafted 4th). 4 – A. Johnson – ADP #43. 5 - DeAngelo Williams ADP #69 6th - T.Heap – ADP #67 7 – J.Norwood. ADP#81 8 – T.Bell 9 – Either D.Foster ADP#111 or Dunn #110 10 – B.Marshal and the rest of the late round potential gems… So this is your staring line up for week one. Note you can mock this out based on your high picks, as ADP is very accurate. 1 – Peyton Manning 2 – Wayne 3 – A.Johnson 4 – B.Marshal 5 – DW 6 – Norwood or T. Bell 7 – Gates 8 – (insert kicker here) 9 - Packers Now you sit and wait… for good things to happen, and for bad things to happen… not necessarily happen (I know the ahole sentiment for wanting bad things to happen, but remember this is a game), but just being prepared in case it happens. A tweaked ankle after a late run takes two days to iron out how extensive it is. That’s all it takes… just the question to come up. Add that in with an upgrade (the other team), and you can swing a very good deal. So you’re sitting on Turner having had a few weeks to heal his ankle, and LT leaves the game with a minor injury. Having Turner on your bench gives you immediate power. This is the time to make the trade… before the details are known. There is an art in the trade… most people IMO fail at this, as their first offer is insulting. I got DW in an early draft and didn’t get Foster. I expressed interest in Foster (taken in the 9th round), and was offered in return a dual swap involving Fred Taylor and Colston (my #3 pick). I could have taken Foster before either of them if I wanted him that bad...insult …trade discussion over. That art of the trade - It has to make sense. You are sitting on a pile of potentially decent starting RB’s and waiting for something to happen. If it doesn’t, you’re screwed… but it prolly will. If you wait it out to see just how bad an injury is, because having Turner as the starting RB for the Chargers isn’t a bad gig, you’ll fail… remember you’re shooting the moon. Make a valid offer and upgrade a weakness. The iron is hot, so make it a good deal for the owner of LT. The guys who has LT wouldn’t even consider this strategy, but when the golden goose is questionable, he starts sweating bullets... you smile the black-tooth grin. On your block – Two stud TE’s (assuming a mandatory TE). This is where you wait for good things to happen, and know that bad things will happen too. The bad thing is that some of those #6- #12 TE’s are gonna come up short. You get an owner that just lost by 10 and his TE got him 2.6, he’s gonna be wanting the upgrade. Guys like Heap, Cooley and Winslow are money after a few weeks. Once one of them hits, trade them that week. You may actually trade Gates in some monster deal with a guy who has too much depth at RB. If that happens, you have a great BU already… upgrade. Week #3 – You got lucky (Peyton and Gates hit hugh) and won. The other game you lost, and you’re now 1-1 and it’s week three. In three weeks the story will unfold. Portis, Gore’s arm, SA’s foot, Addai’s durability, is W.Dunn superhuman?, Tater… it all plays out. When you know who missed, you jettison them to the wire and gain strength where you need it. Sit on the eggs and just wait, but the key is Gates and making viable trade offers. Whatever happens you should have a lot of potential at whatever value fell to you. I took the Bears early and also took the Steelers because they fell to me. If the Steelers D sucks I lose on that one, but I think they’re #3 (arguably). The point is taking value when it falls to you not knowing how the rest of it is going to pan out. On a final note, if you draft RB/RB based on the cheatsheets without one of the top picks you’re prolly gonna lose (I can hear the naysayers here, but injury strikes us all). You only need to hit every five years, so increasing those odds should be the objective. The other aspect is the draft will turn in weird ways when you do this, because some will panic. It’s fun to do, but you just have to stay in the plan and keep taking the best value (and ridicule) on the board while at least covering your arse somewhat. 12 games is a long time, and don’t drine the Koolaid “I tried that and it failed” BS. Just because S.Smith and Chad Johnson didn’t work last year, they might this year. Shoot the moon… at least you can say you tried something different. Upgrades that come slowly also afford you the luxury of having data to indicate future expectations. When your lowly 15th round RB is in the spotlight, upgrade and make space for the next waiver wire wonder… but you’re already sitting on a few. Edited August 28, 2007 by Thews40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 Don't worry about Dorsey. He hasn't shown anything in the pre-season. I'd be surprised if he got anything more than mop up duty. Kenton Keith has shown the most. He played Canadian Football, and has shown some promise. If Addai goes down, it'd be a 2 man show with Keith and Dorsey, neither having much fantasy value IMO. Don't waste the pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vet Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 Four score and seven years ago.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeeR Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 If you read that whole OP, pass GO and give yourself $200. Hell make it $300. jeebus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjcarterfl Posted August 28, 2007 Share Posted August 28, 2007 Tight ends aren't worth drafting unless their name is Gates...and even he wasn't that great last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted September 3, 2007 Share Posted September 3, 2007 Don't worry about Dorsey. He hasn't shown anything in the pre-season. I'd be surprised if he got anything more than mop up duty. Kenton Keith has shown the most. He played Canadian Football, and has shown some promise. If Addai goes down, it'd be a 2 man show with Keith and Dorsey, neither having much fantasy value IMO. Don't waste the pick. told ya' Dorsey had been suckin' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDFFFreak Posted September 3, 2007 Share Posted September 3, 2007 1 – Peyton Manning 2 – Wayne 3 – A.Johnson 4 – B.Marshal 5 – DW 6 – Norwood or T. Bell 7 – Gates 8 – (insert kicker here) 9 - Packers While you are a beast at QB and WR, I would hate this team as there are zero dependable RBs on it. I have yet to see a team win a championship with solely hopefull/upside RBs and no established players at the RB slot; however, I have seen teams with questionable/upside starting WRs and QBs go on to win the championship. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thews40 Posted September 3, 2007 Author Share Posted September 3, 2007 told ya' Dorsey had been suckin' You were right. Now if he would only wind up in GB soon... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted September 3, 2007 Share Posted September 3, 2007 You were right. Now if he would only wind up in GB soon... um, what part of "suckin" did you misunderstand? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thews40 Posted September 3, 2007 Author Share Posted September 3, 2007 um, what part of "suckin" did you misunderstand? Just trying to find the silver lining. I'll drop him and consider the very late gamble a loss... didn't cost much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted September 3, 2007 Share Posted September 3, 2007 Just trying to find the silver lining. I'll drop him and consider the very late gamble a loss... didn't cost much. Kenton Keith is Addai's back-up now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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