Commish Problems

[ghengis_chan]

As Commish of my 12 Team local I have to call for a league vote to settle a Survivor/King of the Hill problem. Our League is managed by MFL. We have a sideline feature called Survivor. (King Of the Hill). We had several owners make their picks after last Thursday's early game. As Commish I stepped in and informed them that their pick would not count because they did not have their pick in BEFORE the start of this week's early game. I felt that they would have a slight advantage by being able to eliminate the 2 teams that played earlier. My logic and reasoning behind my decision was that the lesser number of teams to choose from will give you an advantage and a greater chance of picking the winner from a determined set of teams to choose from. (ie 16 vs 14 after the early game has been played.) Am I wrong or making a big deal outta nothing. I am sure that the lesser number of teams to choose from increases your odds of picking correctly or avoiding some upsets or even wrong picks. (ie 50% chance of being wrong when picking from just 2 Teams....picking from 2 sets of 2 teams would only give you a 25% chance of picking a correct team. I want to put it to a league vote, but the problem is do I allow the 4 teams that picked late or not at all vote in the League Vote....(Of course there are at least 2 owners (Late Pickers) who for sure will vote to allow the picks. The other 2 owners did not make a pick therefore are out automaticaly.MFL doesn't seem to have a deadline to make your pick. Has anyone encountered this before? Is the math correct in making it an advantage to pick from lesser # of teams. I have been Commish in this league for 12 years and have in my wisdom (and a little help form fellow Huddlers and reading the message boards) solved many issues and disagreements pertaining to interpretation of rules etc....I need help on this one because the "picking" of Survivor is a feature of MFL and not a parameter that I can set-up before hand. All owners contribute $10.00 making it a winner take all $120.00 pot for Survivor.

Edited September 11, 2007 by ghengis_chan

[Doc Holliday]

If there is a set number of games to pick(and not all of them)..I don't see a big deal as long as they did not pick a game that had already started or was done.

[Feartheturtle]

You don't get to be Commish for 12 years unless the league has respect for your authority. I'm glad to see you are trying to be diplomatic here, but unfortunately, the situation is not cut and dry. MFL did you no favors by not setting a deadline. Unless you are required to pick all the games, I see no real advantage by letting one game go. Just because you have less games to choose from does not necessarily increase your chances IMO.

 

For instance if you only pick 1 game which has an even spread, but I pick 2 double digit favorites, do you really have a better chance of winning?

 

My solution, if you can do this, is to throw out week #1, set up your own deadline for getting picks in, and make sure that everyone understands that you will monitor and have the final say in when the picks were submitted. Good Luck!

[ghengis_chan]

You don't get to be Commish for 12 years unless the league has respect for your authority. I'm glad to see you are trying to be diplomatic here, but unfortunately, the situation is not cut and dry. MFL did you no favors by not setting a deadline. Unless you are required to pick all the games, I see no real advantage by letting one game go. Just because you have less games to choose from does not necessarily increase your chances IMO.

 

For instance if you only pick 1 game which has an even spread, but I pick 2 double digit favorites, do you really have a better chance of winning?

 

My solution, if you can do this, is to throw out week #1, set up your own deadline for getting picks in, and make sure that everyone understands that you will monitor and have the final say in when the picks were submitted. Good Luck!

I can't even recommend throwing out the 1st week since I picked Jax to win and am no longer in the running either...they would throw out the Commish for suggesting that...LOL...Are there any math scholars out there that can actually explain the odds on picking from a lessor number of games/teams?...I am trying to be diplomatic , anytime a owner feels there is an issue they have the right to bring the Commish in to call for a league vote. As Commish and as an Owner I am only a mediator, in most cases I can shed some light on those issues and point to a rule that says it 'sright or wrong. But like I said it's a n MFL feature. I am soliciting advice so I can provide all our team owners with as much info as possible to make the right vote. I honestly believe there to be an advantage but would like to hear your opinions and logic. Thanks for the input from everyone.

[Feartheturtle]

The problem is you are not picking games where both teams have an equal chance of winning. You are not making it mandatory that everyone picks the same games either, which would level it out as well. I don't think you can set odds on unknowns. How many games do you have to pick? How many teams got knocked out this week(including the two that didn't turn in anything)?

[Doc Holliday]

And what happens if they just don't like those early games and did not want to pick them. unless it is mandatory to pick every game I don't see a problem whatsoever.

[Tega]

I agree with Doc. I don't see a problem with them picking their survivor pick after Indy's victory unless they chose Indy. Now if you had it written in your league rules and it was discussed at your league meeting to get the survivor pick in before the first game of the week or it won't count - then I'd say differently.

 

Our league allows the owners to wait if they want, up to kickoff, for their chosen team. I think it's the right way. A lot of they guys work overtime during the week. It gives them time on Saturday and Sunday to think about it more.

[Big Country]

IMO not a big deal and you are blowing it out of proportion. IMO, having less games to choose from hurts them as it reduces their options.

 

Assuming this is a typical survivor pool where you pick one team a week, and if that team wins you pick a different team the following week, etc., having less options to choose from hurts them. What if the Thursday game was a game like say NEP vs. KC, where just about everyone would no doubt pick NE, and it was by far the most lopsided looking game to choose. Now those teams are at a severe disadvantage as they no longer have that game to choose from. (obviously there is more strategy involved in a survivor pool such as trying to save better teams if at all possible and going for weakerteams with real good matchups, but I am using this to illustrate a point)

 

So long as they made a pick before the last game of the week kicked off, and the team they picked had not yet started their game, it should be fine. No different than setting a starting lineup using game time as the deadline. If you don't set a lineup before Thursday, you still get to set your lineup, you just no longer have the option of using those Thursday players.

[#1 Niners Fan]

Interesting debate...on a survivor pool, should you have to get your pick in before the first game starts, if you dont intend on picking that first game.

 

I think that in a surivor pool, you should have to have your picks in by the start of the first game. Maybe that is how I have always played, and thus, I am a "creature of habit". But if that isnt explicitly stated in the rules (it is explicitly stated in the yahoo ones, the ones I have played in), then I think you have to let it go, they just obviously couldnt pick the winner of the games that have lapsed..

[Rushmore]

Mathmatically, there is zero advantage to having one less game to choose in the survivor pool. Example:

 

Let's say that the NFL only has four teams and you have to pick a game for the survivor pool. There's an early game Thursday and the other game is Sunday.

 

Thursday game: Colts vs. Titans

 

Sunday game: Chargers vs. Bears

 

Suppose that you wait until Sunday to make your survivor pick. If anything, your odds are going to be worse because you have given up the chance to pick a potentially easier game to predict. I think it's fine so long as the player makes their pick before the start of the game they're choosing. Regardless, this is the kind fo thing you need to have set in stone before the season starts and if you don't, then you just have to roll with it.

Edited September 11, 2007 by Rushmore

[ghengis_chan]

Thanks for all your input and advice. MFL Tech Support e-mailed me back with a clarification on how they run their Survivor Pool. The Rule states that you must pick your Survivor before their game starts...Example : I can wait until Monday and choose from just the teams playing that night. These rules were available in their help section, but I did not know where to find it in their Categories and subcategory sections. All in all we have been with MFL for 4 years now and they do a great job with their website. Thanks again for all your help Huddlers.

Edited September 11, 2007 by ghengis_chan