Who's personally helped by the stimulus?

[H8tank]

Electing a bunch of obstructionist do-nothing Republicans is going to turn this economy right around.

 

What exactly do you see the current house and senate doing?

[Randall]

What exactly do you see the current house and senate doing?

 

Ask Al.

[i_am_the_swammi]

I've been preaching for some time that the other shoe to drop was the commercial mortgage disaster. Its almost here. In the last two weeks, Red Roof Inns and Extended Stay America both went under to massive debt loads that will be written off by their lenders as losses in the months ahead. Individual assets are being foreclosed upon every day (the famous Watergate Hotel declared just today). When these workouts are booked as losses, stock prices and earnings will tumble.

 

Getting closer...press release today from Fitch Ratings on the Hotel/commercial sectors:

 

Large Hotel & Retail Defaults Drive U.S. CMBS Delinquencies 48bps Higher

NEW YORK - July 13, 2009 - Defaults on five loans of $100 million or more contributed to a record $2.2 billion net increase in U.S. CMBS (Commercial mortgage-backed securities) delinquencies in June, pushing late-pays up 48 basis points (bps) to 2.55%, according to the latest U.S. CMBS delinquency index results from Fitch Ratings.

 

The largest defaults included three loans collateralized by hotel properties that defaulted during their term and two non-performing matured loans backed by regional malls.

 

'Hotel performance has continued its expected sizable decline, with revenue per available room levels down 20% to date, and cash flows expected to decline by at least 35% from peak levels,' said Susan Merrick, Managing Director and U.S. CMBS Group Head. 'With no immediate revival of demand in sight and recent-vintage hotel loans unlikely to meet projected performance levels, loan sponsors are increasingly depleting reserve accounts or are being forced to come out of pocket to service debt shortfalls, each of which are a precursor to potential future default.'

 

Last month, 13 hotel loans totaling $596 million defaulted. These included the

 

$190 million Pointe South Mountain Resort in Phoenix, AZ,

$117 million Loews Lake Las Vegas in Las Vegas, NV,

$100 million Dream Hotel located in New York, NY.

 

Fitch expects hotel delinquencies to continue to grow, with an additional $608 million of Fitch-rated hotel loans 30 days past due as of June 30. Included in this group were three notes totaling $293.8 million which correspond to portfolios of Red Roof Inn properties, which Fitch expects will move into the Index next month. Hotels will continue to be the most volatile property type, due to their heavy reliance on business and personal discretionary income as well as the daily resetting of rates.

 

The two largest retail defaults in June, the $207.2 million Woodbridge Center loan and $164.5 million Jordan Creek loan, are sponsored by General Growth Properties (GGP). Though performance at each of the properties was strong throughout the term, each borrower's failure to repay the balloon amount upon maturity resulted in their respective defaults, which will not be resolved until further details emerge from the bankruptcy ruling. According to the cash collateral agreement approved in bankruptcy court, GGP is required to remit interest payments on all of the loans included in the filing. As a result, most GGP-sponsored loans will not move into the Loan Delinquency Index until a balloon default occurs at maturity. Four additional Fitch-rated loans included in the bankruptcy, totaling approximately $227 million, mature in 2009. As of the last reading, GGP-sponsored loans accounted for 12 bps in the Index.

 

As of June 30, 2009, the total balance of delinquent loans secured by retail properties has surpassed that of multifamily-backed loans, at $3.95 billion and $3.32 billion, respectively. Delinquency volumes for office, hotel, and industrial loans stood at $1.94 billion, $1.58 billion, and $456.5 million, respectively. When ranked by delinquencies within their individual property types, multifamily led at 4.79%, followed by hotel at 3.04%, retail at 2.84%, industrial at 1.83%, and office with only 1.28%.

 

Fitch's delinquency index includes 1,730 loans totaling $12.0 billion which are at least 60 days delinquent or in foreclosure, out of the Fitch rated universe of approximately 42,000 loans comprising $471 billion. The Index excludes Fitch-rated loans that are 30 to 59 days delinquent, which currently total $5.7 billion.

[Cunning Runt]

Around these parts Opus is a major developer with five autonomous regional companies. Minneapolis, Chicago, Phoenix , Atlanta and Washington DC. Two of the last three have filed for bankruptcy in the last few weeks and the third will do so next week.

 

It sucks to be in commercial development right now, which is why I'm glad we never really got into it except for minor dabbling.

 

Ya - I'm actively negotiating two deals with Opus NW right now (based out of Minny). I'm hoping they get my deals done before they go under too and are unable to perform their end of the lease. Thus far they've said they're solid.