ts Posted November 21, 2009 Share Posted November 21, 2009 (edited) Ok, so seeing as how there (not surprisingly) seem to be tons of Scott, Snelling & Forsett WDIS questions this week, I thought I'd put my $0.02 on these guys all in one post for whatever that is worth. B. Scott @ OAK: No Benson and a great match up vs. the poor OAK run defense ... unhappily for Scott, Leonard has done well enough thus far in limited chances to make me think he may see more action than one might expect - toss in the LJ wild card, and Scott no longer seems to me like he's an automatic fantasy start this week. As a rookie, I can see him being one fumble or missed pass protection block from being on the pine. Fearless predictions: 75 yards rush/1 TD ... 2 catches, 20 yards. J. Snelling @ NYG: Even with their injuries to deal with, the NYG are pretty tough to run on, especially at home ... and if the NYG somehow manage to get out to a quick lead in this game, Snelling may not get the chances that Turner is used to having. Still, Snelling should be reasonably active in the passing game, and I can see him getting any goal line work that is to be had. Fearless predictions: 50 yards rush/1 TD ... 3 catches, 25 yards. J. Forsett @ MIN: He finally gets a real chance, and it's against the MIN run defense, at MIN? Still, SEA has to at least try to run the ball from time to time, and Forsett has already been in the mix in the passing game as a part-timer this year, so no reason to think he won't manage to put up something reasonable fantasy-wise, but I don't see him being "all that" this week - in part due to the poor match up. Fearless predictions: 45 yards rush/0 TD ... 4 catches, 35 yards. To sum up ... I see Scott as having the most upside, but also having the most risk this week ... Forsett seems to me to be the "safest" play of the three RBs being discussed, at least in a PPR league - just because I am not banking on him finding the end zone does not mean he can't - and I do like the idea that he may split his FF production fairly equally between the running & passing games. That leaves Snelling as falling somewhere between the other two in terms of risk vs reward ... and IMO, Snelling's likely production is the toughest to predict. All other things being somewhat equal, and eliminating the total unknowns (injury, weather, etc) from the picture ... if I had to choose from these three RBs this week ... I'd rank them: 1. Scott 2. Forsett 3. Snelling Do with this what you will. I can't wait until the games are over this week just to see how totally wrong I got all this. Edited November 21, 2009 by ts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJV Posted November 21, 2009 Share Posted November 21, 2009 (edited) Great input on these guys ts. I'm starting Snelling as my flex this week over the other 2 simply because IMO Scott is going to share the carries. Any one of them can get the big score or the points will be divided up between them which leaves slim pickens. I would think if they had more confidence in Scott they wouldn't of signed LJ. Forsett has a great upside but like you said, bad matchup BUT who else the Vikes played against that has the same capabilities as Forsett? Ray Rice and look how that panned out. Snelling has a tough matchup but, Ryan hasn't looked like he did last season and I dont think Mike Smith will want him to throw the ball alot. Snelling will get the bulk of the carries with Norwood in for some, possably 3-8 snaps. Snelling can also catch well and get the GL carries for sure. I think Snelling has the best chance out the the 3 this week and Forsett the following games after this week. Edited November 21, 2009 by RJV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menstrualgravy Posted November 22, 2009 Share Posted November 22, 2009 (edited) Because I have both Snelling and Scott and couldn't decide between the two I played the games out on Madden 10. I used the latest rosters downloaded off MS Live and adjusted the rosters accordingly to account for the injuries. Snelling had a bad day when I played it with Pierce in N.Y.'s lineup he had 17 carries for 49 yards 1 rec for 7 yards no touchdowns. Since Pierce is out I ran the game without Pierce and it was a whole other story. In that game Snelling had 16 carries for 109 yards and 1 rec for 14 yards. With 2 fumbles. Giants won in a shoot out 31-28 Scott had 13 carries for 86 yards and 2 receptions for 9 yards. Bengals won 24-10 Scott was basicly shut down except for one big run in the 4th. Neither had any touchdowns. This is obviously just a video game but I find it interesting. I didnt Sim Forsett as I dont have him. Edited November 22, 2009 by Menstrualgravy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooby's Hubby Posted November 22, 2009 Share Posted November 22, 2009 I like in this order for this week....Snelling Scott Forsett... But going forward and after this week I like Forsett Scott and Snelling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the outlaw Posted November 22, 2009 Share Posted November 22, 2009 I absolutely agree with your assessment of the risk/reward for Scott this week @ OAK. I think the split of touches between he and Leonard will be 60/40 and possibly even 50/50 with LJ being the total wildcard/unknown...unfortunately, as someone who grabbed Scott off of waivers this week (to handcuff Benson), I am very leary at this point... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ts Posted November 22, 2009 Author Share Posted November 22, 2009 (edited) As an update for those thinking about Snelling today - ATL has announced that both Turner AND Norwood are inactive for the NYG game, and with Pierce officially announced as inactive for NYG, Snelling's stock may have risen a bit. Edited November 22, 2009 by ts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinatown dragons Posted November 22, 2009 Share Posted November 22, 2009 As an update for those thinking about Snelling today - ATL has announced that both Turner AND Norwood are inactive today. which is why I am plugging Snelling in over Scott.......Stecker was just signed, but doesnt know a lot of the game plays yet...Snelling could get a decent amount of carries and wont be pulled at GL (if they make it to the GL).... heard on ESPN that LJ most likely will get 8-10 carries for the Bengals....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted November 22, 2009 Share Posted November 22, 2009 Nice, glad someone did this, rather than answering 5 million posts with the same questions about these guys. Great analysis too. The one thing I'd add is: Do not start these guys if you have someone more reliable (with the possible exception of Snelling, since he'll get all the carries). I see too many people asking if they should start (insert newest waiver darling) instead of (insert reliable player here). You go with the guys who got you there, and wait-and-see on these guys, unless you have no better choices. Otherwise, wait-and-see on these guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menstrualgravy Posted November 22, 2009 Share Posted November 22, 2009 Nice, glad someone did this, rather than answering 5 million posts with the same questions about these guys. Great analysis too. The one thing I'd add is: Do not start these guys if you have someone more reliable (with the possible exception of Snelling, since he'll get all the carries). I see too many people asking if they should start (insert newest waiver darling) instead of (insert reliable player here). You go with the guys who got you there, and wait-and-see on these guys, unless you have no better choices. Otherwise, wait-and-see on these guys. +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miccione Posted November 22, 2009 Share Posted November 22, 2009 Would you start Scott over Colston in a PPR league? Rain in Tampa and Colston has been cold the last few weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatDude Posted November 22, 2009 Share Posted November 22, 2009 From CBS Sports so take it with a grain of salt. That being said I'm starting Scott over Lynch and Caddy this week. News: CBS Sports play-by-play announcer Kevin Harlan, who is calling the Bengals-Raiders game Sunday, reported on Fantasy Football Today that the Bengals will start RB Bernard Scott and that Larry Johnson will see "five to 10 snaps." Brian Leonard will also see playing time for the Bengals. Analysis: Figure Scott to have a shot at 15 touches with Leonard and Johnson getting less than that. Scott is at best a top-end No. 3. Johnson and Leonard are at best low-end No. 3 options. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ts Posted November 23, 2009 Author Share Posted November 23, 2009 (edited) So, now that the dust has settled, let's see how this worked out: Scott: Predicted - 75 yards rush/1 TD ... 2 catches, 20 yards. (95 total yards ... 15.5 FF points, no PPR) Actual - 119 yards rush / 0 TD ... 3 catches, 32 yards. (152 total yards ... 15.2 FF points, no PPR) Snelling: Predicted - 50 yards rush/1 TD ... 3 catches, 25 yards. (75 total yards ... 13.5 FF points, no PPR) Actual - 76 yards rush / 2 TD ... 3 catches, 13 yards. (89 total yards ... 20.9 FF points, no PPR) Forsett: Predicted - 45 yards rush/0 TD ... 4 catches, 35 yards. (80 total yards ... 8.0 FF points, no PPR) Actual - 9 yards rush / 1 TD ... 8 catches, 80 yards. (89 total yards ... 14.9 FF points, no PPR) All in all, not a total loss for my crystal ball since I predicted what I thought would be low end numbers for Scott & high end numbers for Forsett, & although the numbers at the end of the day were somewhat close, they did not get there in quite the same manner I thought they might. The biggest shock for me was not that Snelling managed 2 rushing TDs or Forsett got 8 catches, but instead seeing Carson Palmer score twice & Scott not all, especially since CIN had the ball first-and-goal inside the OAK 3 three times. I'm going to give myself a mulligan on Snelling getting 2 TDs instead of the predicted one, since when I made the original post Norwood was expected to play & I did later mention that Snelling's stock had gone up a bit once Norwood was announced as inactive. It speaks volumes about the SEA O-line that Forsett's massive 9 yards rushing led the SEA team. The MIN run defense is good, but - LOL, 9 yards? Anyways, little of this post mortem likely matters much to anyone but me, but I'll confess that sometimes I just like to hear myself type about things FF related ... good luck next week to all. -------------------- Ok, so seeing as how there (not surprisingly) seem to be tons of Scott, Snelling & Forsett WDIS questions this week, I thought I'd put my $0.02 on these guys all in one post for whatever that is worth. B. Scott @ OAK: No Benson and a great match up vs. the poor OAK run defense ... unhappily for Scott, Leonard has done well enough thus far in limited chances to make me think he may see more action than one might expect - toss in the LJ wild card, and Scott no longer seems to me like he's an automatic fantasy start this week. As a rookie, I can see him being one fumble or missed pass protection block from being on the pine. Fearless predictions: 75 yards rush/1 TD ... 2 catches, 20 yards. J. Snelling @ NYG: Even with their injuries to deal with, the NYG are pretty tough to run on, especially at home ... and if the NYG somehow manage to get out to a quick lead in this game, Snelling may not get the chances that Turner is used to having. Still, Snelling should be reasonably active in the passing game, and I can see him getting any goal line work that is to be had. Fearless predictions: 50 yards rush/1 TD ... 3 catches, 25 yards. J. Forsett @ MIN: He finally gets a real chance, and it's against the MIN run defense, at MIN? Still, SEA has to at least try to run the ball from time to time, and Forsett has already been in the mix in the passing game as a part-timer this year, so no reason to think he won't manage to put up something reasonable fantasy-wise, but I don't see him being "all that" this week - in part due to the poor match up. Fearless predictions: 45 yards rush/0 TD ... 4 catches, 35 yards. To sum up ... I see Scott as having the most upside, but also having the most risk this week ... Forsett seems to me to be the "safest" play of the three RBs being discussed, at least in a PPR league - just because I am not banking on him finding the end zone does not mean he can't - and I do like the idea that he may split his FF production fairly equally between the running & passing games. That leaves Snelling as falling somewhere between the other two in terms of risk vs reward ... and IMO, Snelling's likely production is the toughest to predict. All other things being somewhat equal, and eliminating the total unknowns (injury, weather, etc) from the picture ... if I had to choose from these three RBs this week ... I'd rank them: 1. Scott 2. Forsett 3. Snelling Do with this what you will. I can't wait until the games are over this week just to see how totally wrong I got all this. Edited November 23, 2009 by ts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted November 23, 2009 Share Posted November 23, 2009 To sum up ... I see Scott as having the most upside, but also having the most risk this week ... Forsett seems to me to be the "safest" play of the three RBs being discussed, at least in a PPR league - just because I am not banking on him finding the end zone does not mean he can't - and I do like the idea that he may split his FF production fairly equally between the running & passing games. That leaves Snelling as falling somewhere between the other two in terms of risk vs reward ... and IMO, Snelling's likely production is the toughest to predict. As an update for those thinking about Snelling today - ATL has announced that both Turner AND Norwood are inactive for the NYG game, and with Pierce officially announced as inactive for NYG, Snelling's stock may have risen a bit. I think you earned the mulligan on Snelling with these statements. Ya, you might not have hit their numbers right on the head, but with trying to predict the performance of 3 non-starter fill-ins, you did a better job than most other people would have. Plus, you know why all of Forsett's yards came as catches. You can thank the deteriorating SEA D for that. Great analysis though dude. I've seen you hit some other predictions right on, and your words were still quite true here, even if it's difficult to predict the exact numbers of fill-in players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Holy Roller Posted November 23, 2009 Share Posted November 23, 2009 I think you earned the mulligan on Snelling with these statements. Ya, you might not have hit their numbers right on the head, but with trying to predict the performance of 3 non-starter fill-ins, you did a better job than most other people would have. Plus, you know why all of Forsett's yards came as catches. You can thank the deteriorating SEA D for that. Great analysis though dude. I've seen you hit some other predictions right on, and your words were still quite true here, even if it's difficult to predict the exact numbers of fill-in players. My respect also. Keep it up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swinagen Posted November 24, 2009 Share Posted November 24, 2009 Great analysis on all three players. Perhaps you should be turning this into a weekly thing? :P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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